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Judging Pioneer Natural Resources’ Stock Price after 4Q15 Earnings

Nicholas Chapman

Pioneer Natural Resources Beat 4Q15 Earnings, Revenue Estimates

(Continued from Prior Part)

Pioneer Natural Resources’ stock price action

Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) announced its 4Q15 earnings on February 10, 2016, after the markets closed. On the day of its earnings release, PXD’s stock price decreased by 2.25% to close at $108.79. In after-hours price action, PXD’s stock price traded as low as $106.13 before trading closed.

In the last five sessions leading into the earnings release, Pioneer Natural Resources’ stock price has declined by ~15%, mainly due to the ~17% decline in crude oil prices during the same period.

PXD’s stock price in downtrend

Declining crude oil and natural gas prices over the last year are dragging the entire upstream sector in a downtrend. As seen in the above chart, Pioneer Natural Resources’ stock price is in a downtrend, where it is making a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

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PXD’s 2015 relative performance

In 2015, Pioneer Natural Resources had outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) upstream companies because PXD had lost only ~16%. Oil and gas producers EOG Resources (EOG), Murphy Oil (MUR), and Consol Energy (CNX) were down ~23%, ~56%, and ~77%, respectively.

PXD’s stock price performance after past earnings beats

In last year, there were two occasions—2Q15 and 3Q15 earnings—when Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) beat the earnings expectations. The company reported its 3Q15 earnings after the market closed on November 2, 2015.

In 3Q15, excluding the one-time items, PXD reported a loss of $0.01 per share, $0.04 better than consensus for a loss of $0.05 per share. Following the earnings release, Pioneer Natural Resources had better-than-expected earnings, and its stock price increased by ~6% in the next session.

A similar upward reaction was observed after the 2Q15 earnings, when PXD’s stock price increased by ~5% in seven sessions after beating the consensus earnings estimates by $0.07 per share.

Browse this series on Market Realist: