Japanese Yen Makes a Bullish Move, Is it Tradable?

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
^USDOLLAR12,395.53-15.15
EURUSD=X1.0699+0.0038
USDJPY=X114.6000-0.453

  • Dollar Slides Alongside US Stocks as Long as VIX Remains Low
  • Japanese Yen Makes a Bullish Move, Is it Tradable?
  • Australian Dollar Traders: What to Expect of the RBA Rate Decision
  • Euro Financial Trouble Cautious Ahead of Slovenia Update
  • British Pound Firms as Rate Watchers Size Up Their Exposure
  • US Oil Ends a Five-Day Rally Just Below 98
  • Gold Builds Breakout Pressure with Volume Collapsing, Range Tightening

Range Trade Strategies work best in quiet market conditions - such as the Asia trading session

Dollar Slides Alongside US Stocks as Long as VIX Remains Low

The unusual, positive correlation between the safe haven US dollar and return-chasing US equity indexes persisted Monday. Though regaining some traction later in the session, the S&P 500 closed the day down 0.5 percent. At the same time, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) eased off 0.3 percent and hovers precariously just above the 10,420-threshold. Both are at risk of shifting tides to a meaning bearish bias after impressive runs, but would fundamentals and market conditions support a hand-in-hand reversal it were to develop? Unlikely. Bouts of risk aversion measured in stock indexes these past weeks are merely range fodder rather than committed sentiment changes. That means, dedicated deleveraging and capital reallocation has never truly taken. Without the resolute drive to safety, we don’t have an equity bear wave, a committed surge in volatility measures (VIX) nor the negative correlation between shares and dollar.

Japanese Yen Makes a Bullish Move, Is it Tradable?

Congestion on the yen-based crosses had grown so constricted this past week that breakouts were inevitable. However, there is a critical difference between a simple technical breakout and one that is forced by a substantial fundamental change. The later type has the necessary elements to generate a lasting trend. So, what sort of move are we presented with in USDJPY’s close below 94.00 and AUDJPY’s break of 97.50 this past session? We are almost certain to see a major swell in volatility and possible trend move this week from the Japanese yen, but that drive is to be instigated by the heavily-anticipated Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision scheduled for Thursday. A withdrawal of speculative interest in the lead up to the event risk means that this attractive technical move will lose its fundamental drive and once again await guidance from the central bank. So, unless there is a strong risk aversion move between now and Thursday, playing a break is highly speculative.

Australian Dollar Traders: What to Expect of the RBA Rate Decision

The Australian dollar is offering us the telltale signs of expected volatility ahead. In the lead up to meaningful, high-potential-market-moving event risk; we typically see trends tempered and short-term volatility pick up. This often occurs due to investors pulling up stakes on day-to-day trading as they look avoid heavy being caught on the wrong side of a fundamental shift. The particular event risk making Aussie dollar traders so skittish this morning is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision. Both market and economists expect the central bank to hold its course, but there is still considerable room for surprise in this meeting. Nearing the end of another easing cycle, we have seen strong growth / employment numbers even if inflation numbers are easing back. If language turns from ‘dovish’ to ‘neutral’, it could spur an AUDUSD rally.

Euro Financial Trouble Cautious Ahead of Slovenia UpdateThere is still clear sense of fear lurking beneath the surface for the Euro. Measuring relative risk in the region, we find the credit default premium between the Eurozone and US financial sector is holding at a seven-month high while the EU-US volatility index differential is trading only slightly off comparable highs. The lingering fear is a possible flash point for heavier Euro-based trading moving forward; but if there isn’t an active fundamental catalyst to pick up the cause, bearish pressure could soon ease. Looking through the fundamental headlines, there are still plenty of rumbles in Cyprus – but nothing that speaks to impending systemic risk to the region. Along the same lines, news from Reuters that Spain will downgrade its 2013 GDP forecast and upgrade its deficit target is a threat but still inert. Over the next 24 hours, we will watch to see whetherBank of Slovenia President Kranjec’s update on the country’s growth and financial health ushers in the next Cyprus.

British Pound Firms as Rate Watchers Size Up Their Exposure

There is little room for interest rate expectations to move for the sterling and Bank of England policy forecasts. At 0.50 percent, the benchmark rate is unlikely to be moved. However, modern central bank watchers – which we should all be at this point – don’t follow actual interest rates. We gauge currency impact on extracurricular stimulus moves. On that front, we find the 10-year government bond (Gilt) yield is stationed just above its four-and-a-half month low before the Bank of England’s (BoE) meeting later this week. Meanwhile, the British Chamber of Commerce released a report this morning suggesting the UK will avoid another recession. We’ll look for confirmation in the factory PMI report.

US Oil Ends a Five-Day Rally Just Below 98

Oil reopened Monday after an extended holiday weekend to a clear serious downshift in conviction. The week’s opening session recorded a modest $0.16 drop which ended an impressive 5.2 percent, 5-day rally that has driven the commodity to within striking distance of the $98 figure that capped the previous bullish wave back in January and February. The most recent run has been provided a few unflattering aspects. Aggregate futures volume has receded from the January’s swell and Brent oil’s (Europe’s standard) premium over the standard US Light Sweet grade that passes through Cushing Oklahoma (the US standard) has deflated to its lowest level since July. That being said, open interest in oil futures is not far from the record high exposure set back on March 12.These are conditions in which we must be vigilant of volatility.

Gold Builds Breakout Pressure with Volume Collapsing, Range Tightening

Last week’s sub-$25 range for gold was one of the smallest in the past two years, and Monday’s trading activity only took this restraint to even greater extreme. The market covered a sparse $5.70 range through the entire day. This level of inactivity is certainly remarkable, but it shouldn’t be fundamentally shocking. There are generally two things that have been in charge of gold’s movements over the past months – currency wars and the US dollar’s health – and neither fundamental driver was particularly marketing moving through the opening session. From the greenback, the 34 point drop was notable, but has yet to develop a new trend. Meanwhile, the wave of stimulus potential in the upcoming BoJ, BoE, ECB rate decisions and the NFPs-Fed makes for a risky bet before it hits. Meanwhile, the CBOE’s gold volatility index is not far from its record low while SPDR Gold ETF volume was below 4.5 million shares for only the 13th time over the past five years.

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

0:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price

1.0%

80% of the increase is offset by the strong new Zealand dollar.

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)

-0.2%

0.1%

Monthly labor survey; Prior reading revised downwardly by 0.6%.

3:30

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

3.0%

3.0%

Expected to remain unchanged.

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Price Index

91.1

Steady rebound from 11/12’s low

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY)

-7.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME-Purchasing Managers Index

50.4

50.8

May fell below 50 amid Cyprus turbulence and Italian debt auction.

7:45

EUR

Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

45.3

45.8

Ticked lower after a3M increase.

7:50

EUR

French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

43.9

43.9

Sharpest fall since 2009

7:55

EUR

German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

48.9

48.9

Anchor manufacturing reports key to maintaining region-wide growth hopes.

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

46.6

46.6

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a.

11.8%

11.7%

Higher default risk in SMEs, which signals risk of more lay off ahead.

8:30

GBP

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

48.8

47.9

Fell for three consecutive months

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit

0.4B

0.4B

Policies eased credit condition, enhanced by FLS program and record low mortgage rate.

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals

53.7K

54.7K

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings

0.4B

0.1B

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM)

0.9%

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY)

-0.8%

8:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised

5.0%

5.6%

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

12.0%

11.9%

Cyprus and cold weather weighted on employers’ confidence to hire.

12:00

EUR

German Consumer Price Index (MoM)

0.4%

0.6%

On year, inflation fell to the lowest level since 12/10; Consistent with the 2 year low EU inflation; Lower inflation is Euro negative.

12:00

EUR

German Consumer Price Index (YoY)

1.3%

1.5%

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

0.3%

0.8%

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY)

1.7%

1.8%

13:45

USD

ISM New York

58.8

Amid the mixed US economic releases, expectation and confidence are boosted by comments from Fed officials.

14:00

USD

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR)

45.5

42.2

14:00

USD

Factory Orders

2.9%

-2.0%

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)

1.1%

Timely measure of price inflation.

GMT

Currency

Upcoming Events & Speeches

-:-

CNY

ASEAN, China, Japan Fin Mins and Central Bankers Meet

-:-

RUB

Russian Central Bank Decision

-:-

RUB

Russian GDP (4Q A)

10:00

EUR

ECB’s Kranjec Presents Slovenia Economic, Bank Outlook

16:20

EUR

ECB’s Coeure, Brazil’s Pereira Speak on Currency Wars

17:00

USD

Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota

17:30

USD

Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Alabama

23:30

USD

Fed's Evans, Lacker Speak on Monetary Policy in Richmond

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT

SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency

USD/MXN

USD/TRY

USD/ZAR

USD/HKD

USD/SGD

Currency

USD/SEK

USD/DKK

USD/NOK

Resist 2

15.0000

2.0000

9.8365

7.8165

1.3650

Resist 2

7.5800

5.8950

6.1150

Resist 1

12.9000

1.9000

9.5500

7.8075

1.3250

Resist 1

6.8155

5.8300

5.8620

Spot

12.3507

1.8056

9.1968

7.7628

1.2386

Spot

6.5069

5.8005

5.8181

Support 1

12.2385

1.6500

8.7750

7.7490

1.2000

Support 1

6.0800

5.6075

5.5000

Support 2

11.5200

1.5725

8.5650

7.7450

1.1800

Support 2

5.8085

5.4440

5.3040

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

Currency

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

Resist. 3

1.2971

1.5338

94.21

0.9543

1.0230

1.0516

0.8461

121.39

143.41

Resist. 2

1.2941

1.5309

93.92

0.9523

1.0214

1.0497

0.8441

120.94

142.97

Resist. 1

1.2911

1.5281

93.63

0.9503

1.0198

1.0477

0.8421

120.49

142.53

Spot

1.2852

1.5224

93.05

0.9463

1.0166

1.0438

0.8381

119.59

141.66

Support 1

1.2793

1.5167

92.47

0.9423

1.0134

1.0399

0.8341

118.69

140.78

Support 2

1.2763

1.5139

92.18

0.9403

1.0118

1.0379

0.8321

118.24

140.34

Support 3

1.2733

1.5110

91.89

0.9383

1.0102

1.0360

0.8301

117.79

139.90

v

--- Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

Additional Content:Money Management Video

Trading the News Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • Who's who in the Syria conflict
    Who's who in the Syria conflict AFP News - 37 minutes ago

    Talks aimed at ending Syria's nearly six-year war are set to open on Monday in the Kazakh capital, brokered by regime allies Russia and Iran and rebel backer Turkey. Key regime backer Russia began an air campaign in support of President Bashar … More »

  • Years of failed efforts to end Syrian conflict
    Years of failed efforts to end Syrian conflict AFP News - 48 minutes ago

    Since the start of Syria's war in 2011, several diplomatic initiatives have stumbled over the future of President Bashar al-Assad. Here is a recap: - End of Arab solutions - In January 2012, two months after an initial bid to end the violence, … More »

  • US stocks rise, dollar falls as Trump era begins
    US stocks rise, dollar falls as Trump era begins AFP News - 1 hour 5 minutes ago

    US stocks rose and the dollar fell Friday as Donald Trump was officially sworn in as the president of the United States and Barack Obama's term ended. Trump's inauguration dominated a day that saw most major equity markets rise as the … More »

  • Sales Lower but resilient Business Times - 1 hour 19 minutes ago

    CYBERJAYA: The Malaysian automotive industry is resilient, considering there were no “surprises” by the industry players last year, despite lower sales figures, according to Malaysia Automotive Institute (MAI) chief. Chief executive officer Datuk … More »

  • Automotive industry: Sales lower but resilient Business Times - 1 hour 19 minutes ago

    CYBERJAYA: The Malaysian automotive industry is resilient, considering there were no “surprises” by the industry players last year, despite lower sales figures, according to Malaysia Automotive Institute (MAI) chief. Chief executive officer Datuk … More »

  • Top gainer: UMW Holdings shares soar Business Times - 1 hour 20 minutes ago

    KUALA LUMPUR: UMW Holdings Bhd soared almost 10 per cent yesterday, while its subsidiary UMW Oil & Gas Corp Bhd (UMW O&G) plunged more than 17 per cent, following the announcement of their consolidation plans. UMW Holdings was Bursa Malaysia’s top … More »

  • Trump's inauguration day of ritual upends tradition
    Trump's inauguration day of ritual upends tradition AFP News - 1 hour 51 minutes ago

    Donald Trump awoke as your everyday American billionaire. By noon he was sworn in as the nation's 45th president, on a whirlwind day that saw him thrust into the spotlight like never before. Trump, 70, began his Inauguration Day as many American … More »

  • Trump signs executive order against Obamacare health law
    Trump signs executive order against Obamacare health law AFP News - 2 hours 35 minutes ago

    President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at limiting the "burden" of the Obamacare health law that the incoming US leader has vowed to repeal. During the signing in the Oval Office, Trump's chief of staff Reince Priebus described the … More »

  • Singaporean buyer scores a bargain at St Regis Residences
    Singaporean buyer scores a bargain at St Regis Residences The Edge Property - 3 hours ago

    One of the first few resale transactions in 2017 resulted in a hefty loss for the seller. On Jan 3, a high-floor unit at St Regis Residences Singapore was sold at a loss of $2.3 million. The seller bought the unit in a sub-sale transaction in 2008 … More »

  • US stocks rise, dollar falls as Trump era begins Business Times - 4 hours ago

    NEW YORK: US stocks rose and the dollar fell Friday as Donald Trump was officially sworn in as the president of the United States and Barack Obama’s term ended. Trump’s inauguration dominated a day that saw most major equity markets rise as the … More »

  • US stocks rise, dollar falls as Trump era begins AFP - 4 hours ago

    US stocks rose and the dollar fell Friday as Donald Trump was officially sworn in as the president of the United States and Barack Obama's term ended. Trump's inauguration dominated a day that saw most ... … More »

  • Trump gets Obama's house, title _ even his Twitter handle
    Trump gets Obama's house, title _ even his Twitter handle Associated Press - 5 hours ago

    Donald Trump built his campaign on early morning tweet storms and hashtag-worthy slogans. Now president, he's in control of the White House's powerful social media arsenal, including the official @POTUS ... … More »

  • Business Highlights Associated Press - 5 hours ago

    ___ China's growth in 2016 slumps as Trump trade struggle looms China's economic growth sank to a three-decade low in 2016 as its struggling exporters brace for a possible trade battle with President-elect ... … More »

  • Stocks edge higher, snapping a 5-day losing streak for Dow
    Stocks edge higher, snapping a 5-day losing streak for Dow Associated Press - 6 hours ago

    Materials companies led U.S. stocks modestly higher Friday, recouping much of the market's loss from a day earlier and snapping a 5-day losing streak for the Dow Jones industrial average. Another crop ... … More »

  • How major US stock market indexes fared on Friday Associated Press - 6 hours ago

    Stocks closed modestly higher Friday, recouping much of the market's loss from a day earlier. The gains, which snapped a 5-day losing streak for the Dow Jones industrial average, came against the backdrop ... … More »

  • Gambia's Jammeh agrees to go, but exile terms not reached
    Gambia's Jammeh agrees to go, but exile terms not reached AFP News - 6 hours ago

    Gambia's Yahya Jammeh agreed "in principle" to hand over power to President Adama Barrow on Friday, Mauritanian and Guinean sources said, but differences remained before a full deal could be reached. Mauritania's President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz … More »

  • Dollar falls, U.S. stocks end higher after Trump inauguration
    Dollar falls, U.S. stocks end higher after Trump inauguration Reuters - 6 hours ago

    The dollar ended down while U.S. stock indexes rose in the last day of a choppy trading week, as investors reacted to President Donald Trump's inaugural speech. U.S. stocks started the day higher but gave up some gains after Trump started speaking. … More »

  • TrailStone buys Cargill's power and gas group - sources
    TrailStone buys Cargill's power and gas group - sources Reuters - 6 hours ago

    Commodities trader and investor TrailStone Group has purchased Cargill Inc's gas and power trading group, three sources familiar with the deal said this week. The move, first reported by Sparkspread, comes amid a reshuffling in the power and … More »

  • Dollar falls as investors unpack inauguration speech
    Dollar falls as investors unpack inauguration speech Reuters - 6 hours ago

    The dollar edged down on Friday as investors were underwhelmed by the limited scope of executive actions and the lack of concrete policy reforms in the inauguration speech of newly sworn-in U.S. President Donald Trump. Investors had been looking to … More »

  • Oil prices jump 2 percent ahead of producers' compliance meeting
    Oil prices jump 2 percent ahead of producers' compliance meeting Reuters - 6 hours ago

    Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Friday on expectations that this weekend's meeting of the world's top oil producers would demonstrate compliance to a global output cut deal, but rising U.S. drilling activity limited gains. Members of the … More »

  • Mars investigating Skittles said to be intended for cattle Associated Press - 6 hours ago

    A mysterious Skittles spill on a rural highway in Wisconsin is taking another twist, with Mars Inc. saying it doesn't know why the discarded candy might have been headed to become cattle feed. The case ... … More »

  • US stocks close higher as Trump takes office AFP - 7 hours ago

    Wall Street stocks finished higher Friday as Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th president of the United States and Barack Obama's term ended. US stocks were in positive territory virtually the entire ... … More »

  • Markets Right Now: Dow industrials break 5-day losing streak Associated Press - 7 hours ago

    The latest on developments in financial markets (All times local): 4:00 p.m. Stocks are ending higher, recouping much of the market's loss from a day earlier and breaking a 5-day losing streak for the ... … More »

  • Haven Assets in Demand as Forceful Trump Sworn In: Markets Wrap Bloomberg - 7 hours ago

    The S&P 500 Index’s advance was cut by about three-quarters as Trump addressed the country for the first time as president. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell. The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.3 percent to 2,270.48 at 4 p.m. in New York. … More »

  • Oil prices jump 2 percent ahead of producers' compliance meeting
    Oil prices jump 2 percent ahead of producers' compliance meeting Reuters - 7 hours ago

    Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Friday on expectations that this weekend's meeting of the world's top oil producers would demonstrate compliance to a global output cut deal, but rising U.S. drilling activity limited gains. Members of the … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.172-0.002-1.15%
    N21.SI
    0.109+0.003+2.83%
    AAJ.SI
    0.121+0.006+5.22%
    40F.SI
    3.81+0.03+0.79%
    Z74.SI
    0.855-0.005-0.58%
    Y92.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.45+0.12+36.36%
    MR8.SI
    0.44+0.09+25.71%
    AWC.SI
    0.46+0.08+21.05%
    AYB.SI
    0.52+0.07+16.85%
    E8Z.SI
    0.20+0.02+10.50%
    BDN.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.22-0.03-13.73%
    AWI.SI
    0.155-0.015-8.82%
    F86.SI
    0.113-0.010-8.13%
    D79.SI
    0.23-0.02-8.00%
    T18.SI
    0.139-0.011-7.33%
    5NF.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.4246-0.0012-0.09%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5220+0.0019+0.12%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7591+0.0004+0.02%
    GBPSGD=X
    80.1670-0.478-0.59%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.4390+0.002+0.04%
    SGDHKD=X
    3.1179-0.0011-0.04%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,436.7451+30.9307+0.33%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.8209+0.004+0.08%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0759-0.0017-0.16%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,210.20+8.70+0.72%
    GCG17.CMX
    17.11+0.11+0.66%
    SIH17.CMX
    88.68+1.12+1.28%
    ^XAU
    2.620.00+0.19%
    HGH17.CMX
    52.33+0.96+1.87%
    CLG17.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.94-0.01
    ^FVX
    2.47+0.01
    ^TNX
    3.05+0.01
    ^TYX