Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at Barrick Gold (GOLD), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Barrick Gold currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.
You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>
Set to Beat the Market?
Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for GOLD that show why this gold and copper mining company shows promise as a solid momentum pick.
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.
For GOLD, shares are up 7.27% over the past week while the Zacks Mining - Gold industry is up 5.37% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 12.41% compares favorably with the industry's 12.02% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Shares of Barrick Gold have increased 49.42% over the past quarter, and have gained 73.97% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved 4.69% and 5.79%, respectively.
Investors should also pay attention to GOLD's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. GOLD is currently averaging 18,613,418 shares for the last 20 days.
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with GOLD.
Over the past two months, 6 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost GOLD's consensus estimate, increasing from $0.39 to $0.48 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 5 estimates have moved upwards while there have been 1 downward revision in the same time period.
Given these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that GOLD is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of A. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Barrick Gold on your short list.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
Zacks Investment Research