Yahoo Finance GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
As you might know, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (NYSE:GHG) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥1.6b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 15%, coming in at just CN¥2.60 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for GreenTree Hospitality Group
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from GreenTree Hospitality Group's dual analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.70b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 4.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 38% to CN¥3.60. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥1.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.97 in 2024. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a sizeable expansion in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.
The consensus price target fell 7.0% to US$4.21, with the analysts signalling that the weaker revenue outlook was a more powerful indicator than the upgraded EPS forecasts.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of GreenTree Hospitality Group'shistorical trends, as the 4.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 5.3% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 9.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that GreenTree Hospitality Group is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around GreenTree Hospitality Group's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of GreenTree Hospitality Group's future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of GreenTree Hospitality Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
