Yahoo Finance Game Theory In Elections, 3-Cornered Fights And Spoiling Your Vote : No 6 of 8
During the Presidential Election in 2011, something remarkable happened – Mr Tony Tan won despite garnering only 35% (745,693) of the total votes casted. This was the first time in Singapore’s 50-year history where a multi-cornered fight resulted in potentially, a non-optimal outcome.
Fast forward 4 years later and we are on the verge of another critical election. For residents living in PAP strongholds, it is tempting to think that your vote wouldn’t matter. Statistically, that is probably true. In a general election with many voters, the probability that a single voter can affect the outcome is negligible
General Election 2015 will open up more possibilities than past elections. In 2001, the PAP won the election on Nomination Day, as there were 55 walkover seats. In 2006, the PAP were halfway to victory on Nomination Day with 37 walkover seats. The party eventually went on to win 45 of the remaining contested seats. But not before seeing Aljunied GRC led by then MP George Yeo win a less than convincing 56% of the votes.
We all know what happened 5 years after that unconvincing PAP victory in Aljunied GRC.
Closely Contested GRCs and SMCs
We narrowed our observation to closely contested GRCs and SMCs into the following table.
Area (seats) | Incumbent | Votes Won (%) | Swing Vote Required (%) |
Aljunied GRC (5) | WP | 54.72 | 2.36% |
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (5) | PAP | 56.93 | 3.47% |
East Coast GRC (5) | PAP | 54.83 | 2.42% |
Marine Parade GRC (5) | PAP | 56.64 | 3.32% |
Moulmein –Kallang GRC (4) | PAP | 58.55 | 4.28% |
Nee Soon GRC (5) | PAP | 58.40 | 4.20% |
Tampines GRC (5) | PAP | 57.22 | 3.61% |
Joo Chiat SMC | PAP | 51.02 | 0.51% |
Mountbatten SMC | PAP | 58.62 | 4.31% |
Potong Pasir SMC | PAP | 50.36 | 0.18% |
Punngol East SMC (Based on by elections) | WP | 54.50 | 2.25% |
Sengkang West SMC | PAP | 58.11 | 4.06% |
With less than 5% of swing votes needed to swing the contested seats in either direction, we observe that a total of 39 seats could have easily had vastly differing outcomes in the last election. They will be hotly contested this time around.
In terms of votes, the slightest margin was at Potong Pasir, where a swing of just 58 voters would have been sufficient to keep the ward in opposition control. So if you are thinking your vote doesn’t count, go speak to Lina Chiam first.
Game Theory Behind Singapore General Elections in 2015
Because our General Election practises a one person, one vote system, there isn’t much game theory that can be applied to the election. Tactical voting strategies such as “Compromising”, “Push-over” and “Bullet voting” does not apply in the Singapore’s context.
There is however one concept, which could be applicable, if executed correctly. Its call “Voting Bloc.” Let us explain.
Voting Bloc
Voting bloc is when a group of voters who either belongs to a common demographic or share similar concern or interest, decides to group and vote together. If the group is large enough to potentially tilt the election, candidates will have little choice but to listen to their demands.
In America, the self-proclaimed “Land Of The Free”, voting bloc can (ironically) affect major election. Voting blocs can be based on races, religious beliefs or even any other issues that people care about. As long as a voting bloc can demonstrate its cohesiveness by voting consistently, it can attain some type of political indirect influence. People can choose to identify and consider themselves as part of a voting bloc, and to vote based on the collective decision made by their bloc, rather than to make an individual decision.
So far in Singapore, voting blocs do not really exist…yet. At the same time, there is no reason to think why a voting bloc “concept” cannot happen in Singapore.
In truth, any issue can give rise to a voting bloc. Heck, even Manchester United fans can group their votes together to say that they will vote for the political party that promises to bring in the football club every year to play against our national team. This extreme example may sound superficial, but in theory that’s what could happen, and of course it’s Manchester United fans we are talking about here.
Whatever the reason, voting blocs would allow even a minority group to be in a strong position to dictate an election outcome, and thus, exert more influence than they typically could.
A 3-Cornered Fight
Whenever there is a 3 corner fight, there is a chance of vote splitting and hence, a non-optimal outcome. As long as enough votes were “stolen” by a third party candidate, an election result can be tilt and won by the politician(s) who could even be the most “unpopular.”
A 3-cornered fight may even be strategic in nature, potentially helping to steal votes and sway the outcome. In theory, if people voted only incumbent party or opposition, the side that wins the majority of the popular vote would be elected. However, if we split the opposition vote, what may happen is the incumbent may win without securing more than 50% of the votes.
Spoiling Your Votes
It is our responsibilities as citizens to show up and cast a vote during polling day. But what if you really dislike either of the candidates being presented? Is there ever any acceptable reason to intentionally spoil your vote?
The most common reason to spoil your vote would be to show explicit disapproval to both candidates taking part. In fact, a mass movement of spoilt votes can actually send a really clear message to both parties competing, and that is, neither have done enough or showed enough creditability to deserve the support of the voters. Yes, one of them would win this time round. But they will know that they won not because they were the voters’ choice or popular, but only because the other candidate was simply just worse.
And before we think that these spoilt votes are insignificant, in the last elections, spoilt votes accounted for 2.17% of all votes cast.
Your country, your vote, your choice.
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The post Game Theory In Elections, 3-Cornered Fights And Spoiling Your Vote [Election Indicators]: No 6 of 8 appeared first on DollarsAndSense.sg.
