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Forex Trading: Selling AUDNZD on Policy Outlook

David Song

As we get close to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision, we’re seeing the AUDNZD continue to work its way back towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2008 low to the 2011 high around 1.2580, and we are looking for an opportunity to sell the pair as it maintains the downward trend carried over from 2011. Although the RBNZ is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, the central bank is likely to sound more hawkish this time around as amid rising home prices along with the rise in private sector credit, and we will maintain a bearish outlook for the AUDNZD amid the deviation in the policy outlook.

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