Forex: Euro Struggles On Deepening Recession- ECB Rate Cut On Horizon

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
GBPUSD=X1.3181-0.005
USDJPY=X100.5840+0.115
EURUSD=X1.1277+0.0013

Talking Points

  • Euro: 3Q Employment Falters, Core Inflation Falls Short Of Expectations
  • British Pound: U.K. Core Inflation To Tick Higher, All Eyes On BoE Minutes
  • U.S. Dollar: Index Pares Losses As Risk Appetite Subsides, CPI Misses Forecast

Euro: 3Q Employment Falters, Core Inflation Falls Short Of Expectations

The EURUSD pared the overnight advance to 1.3118 as employment in the euro-area contracted 0.2% in the third-quarter, and the ongoing weakness in the labor market may produce a prolonged recession in Europe as the jobless rate is expected to hit fresh record-highs in 2013.

Although the headline reading for euro-area inflation held steady at 2.2% in November, the core reading for consumer prices increased 1.4% during the same period to mark the slowest pace of growth since August 2011, and easing price pressures certainly raises the scope for another rate from the European Central Bank (ECB)as the economic downturn threatens price stability.

As the ECB preserves a dovish tone for monetary policy, we should see the Governing Council carry its easing cycle into the following year, and the Governing Council looks poised to push the benchmark interest rate to a fresh record-low in an effort to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation.

As the EURUSD continues to carve a lower top around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low (1.3120), we may see a short-term reversal take shape in the week ahead, and we will look for a move back towards the 23.6% retracement around 1.2640-50 as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area remains bleak.

British Pound: U.K. Core Inflation To Tick Higher, All Eyes On BoE Minutes

The British Pound fell back from 1.6142 to trade within the previous day’s range, and the sterling appears to be coiling up for a move higher as the economic docket for the following week is expected to dampen bets for more monetary support.

Although the headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.7%, we’re anticipating a small uptick in the core CPI, and sticky price growth may prop up the sterling ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes due out on December 19 as the central bank drops its dovish tone for monetary policy.

Indeed, the policy statement may reveal a shift in policy outlook as the BoE looks to address the threat for inflation, and we should see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) slowly move away from its easing cycle as price growth is expected to hold above the 2% target over the next two-years. In turn, we should see the MPC endorse a wait-and-see approach in 2013, and a growing number of BoE officials may start to draw up a tentative exit strategy in the year ahead in an effort to balance the risks surrounding the U.K. economy.

As the relative strength index on the GBPUPSD preserves the upward trend from November, we continue to look for another test of the 23.6% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.6200, and we may see the British Pound outperform in 2013 as the BoE appears to be bringing its easing cycle to an end.

U.S. Dollar: Index Pares Losses As Risk Appetite Subsides, CPI Misses Forecast

The greenback appears to be regaining its footing going into the North American trade, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) bouncing back from a low 9,951, and the reserve currency may track higher throughout the remainder of the day as the rebound in risk sentiment appears to be tapering off.

Nevertheless, we saw U.S. consumer prices slow for the first time since May, led by lower energy costs, and easing price pressures dampens the appeal of the greenback as it increases the Fed’s scope to expand its balance sheet further. As the central bank maintains a highly accommodative policy stance, speculation for more easing will continue to drag on the exchange rate, but we may6 see the 2013 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scale back their dovish tone amid the more broad-based recovery in the world’s largest economy.

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

USD

14:15

9:15

Industrial Production (NOV)

0.2%

-0.4%

USD

14:15

9:15

Capacity Utilization (NOV)

78.0%

77.8%

USD

14:15

9:15

Manufacturing Production (SIC) (NOV)

-0.9%

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • European, US equities dip awaiting Fed
    European, US equities dip awaiting Fed AFP News - 15 minutes ago

    European stocks slid Thursday in choppy trade as investors eyed poor German data and recent oil price falls, on the eve of a speech by Federal Reserve boss Janet Yellen. Mid-afternoon, Frankfurt had shed 0.9 percent, London lost 0.3 percent and … More »

  • Stocks waver between small gains and losses in midday trade
    Stocks waver between small gains and losses in midday trade Associated Press - 20 minutes ago

    Stocks are wavering between gains and losses in midday trading Thursday as investors sift through a handful of earnings reports. Drug company Mylan rose, but Signet Jewelers and Dollar General fell after ... … More »

  • TABLE-INDONESIA KPB NUSANTARA PALM OIL PRICES - Aug 25 Reuters - 24 minutes ago

    Aug 25 (Reuters) - Following are Indonesian prices for crude palm oil (CPO) quoted at an auction by PT KPB Nusantara (formerly known as the state marketing centre) on Monday. Buyer Volume Price Terms (tonnes) ... … More »

  • RUBBER-Tokyo futures prices after evening session Aug 25 Reuters - 25 minutes ago

    Following are prices for Tokyo rubber futures at the end of the Tokyo market's evening session on Aug 2016. Contract Day Volume Evening Volume * Aug 161.3 5 155.0 5 * Sep 156.2 45 156.5 12 * Oct 155.3 ... … More »

  • Japan's ANA finds problem with Boeing 787 Rolls-Royce engines, cancels some flights Reuters - 31 minutes ago

    TOKYO/LONDON (Reuters) - Japanese carrier ANA Holdings needs to replace damaged compressor blades in the Rolls-Royce engines powering its Boeing 787s, it said on Thursday, forcing it to cancel some Dreamliner flights over the coming weeks. The … More »

  • German prosecutors review stolen Bosch data for VW dieselgate clues Reuters - 35 minutes ago

    Prosectors in Stuttgart, Germany are examining a trove of stolen Bosch data to see whether it contains clues about how Volkswagen cheated diesel emissions tests. "We are reviewing it to see if it is relevant," a spokesman for the Stuttgart … More »

  • Turkey sends more tanks to Syria, warns Kurdish militia
    Turkey sends more tanks to Syria, warns Kurdish militia AFP News - 39 minutes ago

    Turkey sent more tanks into Syria on Thursday and sternly warned a Kurdish militia to withdraw from frontline positions, a day after pro-Ankara Syrian opposition fighters captured a key border town from jihadists. The tanks joined those which … More »

  • In euro zone first, Finland could sell syndicated bond with negative yield Reuters - 40 minutes ago

    Finland could launch a new bond as early as next week, three banking sources said on Thursday, a deal that could mark the first euro zone sovereign syndication with a negative yield. The country is believed to be considering whether to issue a … More »

  • Markets Right Now: Stocks waver in late morning trade Associated Press - 41 minutes ago

    The latest on developments in global financial markets (all times local): 11:45 a.m. U.S. stock indexes are wavering between small gains and losses as a late summer lull on Wall Street continues. Several ... … More »

  • Asia’s Biggest Container Shipper Posts Loss After China Merger Bloomberg - 43 minutes ago

    China last year merged China Ocean Shipping Group and China Shipping Group to form China Cosco Shipping Corp. as part of the government’s efforts to shrink industries plagued by overcapacity while creating globally competitive businesses. China … More »

  • Russia to work with US on response to Syria gas attacks probe
    Russia to work with US on response to Syria gas attacks probe AFP News - 56 minutes ago

    Russia will work with the United States on a response after UN investigators found that the Syrian regime had carried out chemical attacks, Moscow's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said Thursday. An investigative panel set up by the UN Security … More »

  • Hedge Funds Are Suddenly Winning on China’s Most Dangerous Short Bloomberg - 57 minutes ago

    After suffering through a 953 percent rally in shares of Yirendai Ltd. since mid-February, hedge funds and other bearish speculators were rewarded over the past four days as the Chinese peer-to-peer lender sank 35 percent in U.S. trading. Holding … More »

  • FTSE retreats as pharma stocks fall
    FTSE retreats as pharma stocks fall Reuters - 57 minutes ago

    UK shares fell on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session as healthcare stocks dropped, though CRH rose after well-received results. The blue-chip FTSE 100 index was down 0.3 percent at 6,816.90 points by the close. Healthcare stocks … More »

  • Biden warns Europe against Russian energy reliance
    Biden warns Europe against Russian energy reliance Associated Press - 1 hour 37 minutes ago

    U.S. Vice President Joe Biden says a new natural gas pipeline planned to stretch from Russia to Germany "looks like a fairly bad deal" for Europe because it increases its energy dependency on ... … More »

  • Average US 30-year mortgage rate unchanged at 3.43 percent Associated Press - 1 hour 42 minutes ago

    Long-term U.S. mortgage rates didn't budge this week, remaining at historically low levels that continue to lure prospective home buyers. Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average for the ... … More »

  • Oil prices up nearly 1 percent on soft dollar, OPEC speculation
    Oil prices up nearly 1 percent on soft dollar, OPEC speculation Reuters - 1 hour 45 minutes ago

    Oil prices rose nearly 1 percent on Thursday, bouncing back from a selloff in the previous session, on expectations the dollar would weaken ahead of a key speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday. Crude futures also saw support … More »

  • Obama administration pushing state-run retirement plans Associated Press - 1 hour 46 minutes ago

    The Obama administration has finalized a new rule intended to encourage states to set up their own retirement plans. The Department of Labor rule is designed to clarify how voluntary, state-run retirement ... … More »

  • Spain revises Q2 growth estimate upward to 0.8 percent Associated Press - 1 hour 49 minutes ago

    Officials have revised Spain's quarterly economic growth figure for the April-June period upward, from 0.7 percent to 0.8 percent, welcome news for a country in its eighth month without a fully functioning ... … More »

  • Grain mixed, livestock mixed Associated Press - 1 hour 59 minutes ago

    Grain futures were mixed Thursday in early trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat for Sept. delivery was .50 cent higher at $4.0460 a bushel; Sept. corn was .50 cent lower at $3.27 bushel; Sept. ... … More »

  • Iran will join OPEC meet in Algeria: minister AFP - 2 hours 15 minutes ago

    Iran will take part in an informal meeting of OPEC countries in Algeria next month, state media reported on Thursday. "I will take part in this session," Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told the ... … More »

  • Deals of the day- Mergers and acquisitions Reuters - 2 hours 27 minutes ago

    ** British broadcaster ITV said on Thursday it would not bid for Entertainment One after failing to persuade the owner of the children's TV character Peppa Pig to enter into a formal process. ** Berry Plastics Group Inc said it would buy AEP … More »

  • Chinese military will train Syrian troops: govt
    Chinese military will train Syrian troops: govt AFP News - 2 hours 38 minutes ago

    China's military will provide training for Syrian armed forces, a spokesman for Beijing's defence ministry said Thursday, adding it would take place on Chinese soil. Beijing is a longstanding backer of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, … More »

  • Gold edges off 4-week low, awaits clues on Fed policy
    Gold edges off 4-week low, awaits clues on Fed policy Reuters - 2 hours 45 minutes ago

    Gold edged off the previous day's four-week low on Thursday as the dollar retreated, but prices were rangebound ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week which will be watched for clues on monetary policy. Investors are … More »

  • Oil prices fall as production freeze expectation fades
    Oil prices fall as production freeze expectation fades Reuters - 2 hours 45 minutes ago

    Oil prices slipped on Thursday as the market focused on oversupply and fading expectation of a production freeze. U.S. light crude oil was down 15 cents at $46.62 a barrel, after dropping 2.8 percent on Wednesday. Oil prices rose more than 20 … More »

  • Bold moves, tepid gains: Have central banks met their limit?
    Bold moves, tepid gains: Have central banks met their limit? Associated Press - 2 hours 46 minutes ago

    The world's key central banks have worked themselves into contortions to try to rev up economic growth, raise inflation and coax consumers and businesses to borrow and spend more. They've pumped trillions ... … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.128-0.001-0.78%
    N21.SI
    0.355-0.010-2.74%
    E5H.SI
    0.59-0.01-1.67%
    5TP.SI
    1.00+0.01+1.01%
    Y92.SI
    0.785-0.010-1.26%
    BS6.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.45+0.09+26.76%
    AYB.SI
    0.465+0.080+20.78%
    E8Z.SI
    0.16+0.02+14.29%
    UV1.SI
    0.20+0.02+11.11%
    BGO.SI
    0.188+0.018+10.59%
    AWS.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.35-0.10-22.22%
    BFK.SI
    0.185-0.040-17.78%
    Y35.SI
    0.40-0.06-13.04%
    BBW.SI
    0.20-0.03-13.04%
    AWI.SI
    0.194-0.026-11.82%
    BLZ.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3536-0.0002-0.01%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5262+0.0013+0.09%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7839-0.0067-0.37%
    GBPSGD=X
    74.2810+0.138+0.19%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7276+0.004+0.07%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9634-0.0135-0.45%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,816.4678+33.2266+0.34%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9165+0.0032+0.07%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0299-0.0008-0.08%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,325.80-3.90-0.29%
    GCZ16.CMX
    18.51-0.05-0.25%
    SIU16.CMX
    96.97+1.63+1.71%
    ^XAU
    2.080.00+0.14%
    HGU16.CMX
    47.04+0.27+0.58%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.150.00
    ^FVX
    1.560.00
    ^TNX
    2.25+0.01
    ^TYX