Forex Analysis: US Dollar May Rise with "Fiscal Cliff" Woes in Focus

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
^USDOLLAR11,918.29-5.90
EURUSD=X1.1217-0.0001

The US Dollar may rise on haven demand amid fears that a deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff” remains elusive as US President Obama pitches his proposal.

Talking Points

  • Dollar May Rise on “Fiscal Cliff” Deadlock Fears as Obama Speaks in Detroit
  • Yen Gains on Haven Flows as Japanese GDP, Chinese Export Data Disappoint
  • Euro Underperforms After Italian PM Monti Pledges to Resign Over the Weekend

The economic calendar is quiet through the remainder of the trading day, putting the spotlight on US President Obama as he delivers a speech in Detroit to promote his plan to avoid the “fiscal cliff”, a set of spending cuts and tax hikes due to trigger at the turn of the calendar year. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the burst of austerity – if left to trigger as scheduled – is likely to tip the US back into recession in the first six months of 2013. Republicans and Democrats have been at loggerheads on a compromise plan to avoid the “cliff” and more of the same is likely to weigh on risk appetite, boosting haven demand for the US Dollar. Obama’s plan features $1.6 trillion in tax increases and $600 billion in spending cuts.

The Japanese Yen advanced in overnight trade on the back of safe-haven demand as the final revision of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product data showed the economy shrank -0.9 percent compared with 0.8 percent expected. A worrisome set of Chinese trade figures reinforced regional growth concerns, showing exports added a meager 2.9 percent year-on-year in November. This marked the lowest reading in three months and a sharp deviation from forecasts calling for a 9.0 percent increase. The Euro underperformed after Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti announced he would resign after the 2013 budget is passed this month, feeding uncertainty about future policy in the largest of the so-called “PIIGS” countries.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

2.0%

2.1%

1.7%

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

-2.2%

-2.0%

-2.8%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

10.1%

9.8%

9.6%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (NOV)

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (NOV)

20.7%

20.9%

20.7%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)

14.9%

14.6%

14.5%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (NOV)

14.2%

14.1%

14.1%

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity (3Q)

1.6%

-

-0.8% (R+)

23:50

JPY

BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (4Q)

-5.5

-

2.2

23:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (4Q)

-10.3

-

2.5

23:50

JPY

Nominal GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.9%

-0.9%

-0.9%

23:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.9%

-0.8%

-0.9%

23:50

JPY

GDP (Annualized) (3Q F)

-3.5%

-3.3%

-3.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (3Q F)

-0.8%

-0.7%

-0.7%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (OCT)

376.9B

230.9B

503.6B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (OCT)

414.1B

247.0B

-142.0B

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (OCT)

-29.4%

-59.0%

-68.7%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (OCT)

-450.3B

-450.0B

-471.3B

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (NOV)

1.3%

-

1.1%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (NOV)

1.0%

-

0.8%

0:01

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (NOV)

-42

-

-35

0:30

AUD

Home Loans (OCT)

0.1%

3.0%

1.1% (R+)

0:30

AUD

Investment Lending (OCT)

5.5%

-

8.8% (R+)

0:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (OCT)

-0.2

-

1.4% (R-)

2:13

CNY

Trade Balance ($) (NOV)

19.63B

26.85B

31.99B (R+)

2:13

CNY

Exports (YoY) (NOV)

2.9%

9.0%

11.6%

2:13

CNY

Imports (YoY) (NOV)

0.0%

2.0%

2.4%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (NOV)

-12.0%

-

6.0%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence (NOV)

39.4

-

39.7

6:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (NOV)

41.9

-

41.7

6:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (NOV)

40.0

-

39.0

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.4% (A)

-1.6%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

-0.3% (A)

-2.4%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (OCT)

15.5B (A)

16.9B

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (OCT)

13.5B (A)

16.3B

Medium

9:30

EUR

Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence (DEC)

-16.9

-18.8

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.2%

-0.2%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q F)

-2.4%

-2.4%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2830

1.2975

GBPUSD

1.5976

1.6092

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • BlackBerry to stop making signature smartphone; revenue slumps
    BlackBerry to stop making signature smartphone; revenue slumps Reuters - 3 minutes 29 seconds ago

    BlackBerry Ltd will outsource manufacturing of its once-core hardware, including its flagship smartphone, the Canadian company said on Wednesday as it reported another loss and sharp drop in revenue. The company also said Chief Financial Officer … More »

  • Germany denies preparing Deutsche Bank rescue plan
    Germany denies preparing Deutsche Bank rescue plan Reuters - 9 minutes ago

    The German government denied it was working on a rescue of Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) as Germany's biggest lender boosted its balance sheet by selling its British insurance business on Wednesday. Deutsche is facing a $14 billion (£10.78 billion) fine … More »

  • Deutsche gets lift from $1.2 billion sale of Abbey Life to UK's Phoenix Reuters - 11 minutes ago

    Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE) has sold its British insurance business Abbey Life to Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.L) as it sheds non-core assets and reduces its balance sheet in an effort to reassure anxious investors and meet regulators' demands. … More »

  • Russian charged for flying drone over Polish PM's office AFP - 12 minutes ago

    Polish prosecutors said on Wednesday they had charged a Russian citizen with violating airspace laws for allegedly flying an unauthorised drone over the prime minister's office in Warsaw. Identified only ... … More »

  • Any ECB scheme to buy stocks could total 200 billion euros - ABN AMRO Reuters - 13 minutes ago

    The ECB is widely expected to extend its 1.7 trillion euro (£1.47 trillion) asset purchase programme given still low inflation and tepid economic growth, both of which the programme is designed to combat. In a note, ABN AMRO said the structure used … More »

  • AP Top Extended Financial Headlines at 7:44 a.m. EDT Associated Press - 14 minutes ago

    Wells Fargo says CEO John Stumpf and the executive who ran the bank's retail banking division will forfeit tens of millions of dollars in bonuses as the bank tries to stem a scandal over its sales practices... … More »

  • Moldova bans Ukraine meat over African swine fever fears Associated Press - 18 minutes ago

    Moldovan authorities are banning the import of live animals and meat from Ukraine due to fears of African swine fever. Agriculture Minister Eduard Grama says the ban begins Wednesday after several suspected ... … More »

  • Saudis soften oil stance on Iran but OPEC deal still elusive
    Saudis soften oil stance on Iran but OPEC deal still elusive Reuters - 19 minutes ago

    OPEC might still agree an oil output-limiting deal later this year as the economic problems of its de-facto leader Saudi Arabia force Riyadh to cede more ground to arch-rival Iran. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Tuesday Iran, Nigeria … More »

  • European stocks rebound awaiting OPEC decision
    European stocks rebound awaiting OPEC decision AFP News - 20 minutes ago

    European stock markets rebounded on Wednesday, brushing aside a broad retreat across Asia, as investors paid close attention to a meeting of OPEC to tackle a global supply glut. Around 1030 GMT, London's benchmark FTSE 100 index was up 0.7 percent. … More »

  • Old rivalries seen blocking OPEC deal to support oil price
    Old rivalries seen blocking OPEC deal to support oil price Associated Press - 22 minutes ago

    Prospects are dim for a deal among OPEC countries on Wednesday to freeze production and support oil prices, as disagreements persist between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. Officials from the Organization ... … More »

  • Credit Suisse CEO says bank relatively well positioned for Brexit
    Credit Suisse CEO says bank relatively well positioned for Brexit Reuters - 37 minutes ago

    Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) chief executive Tidjane Thiam said on Thursday that his bank is relatively well-placed to deal with the impact of Britain's vote to leave the European Union. Credit Suisse's EU investment banking business is run out of London … More »

  • Russian man suspected of breaking law with drone in Warsaw Associated Press - 42 minutes ago

    Warsaw prosecutors have officially informed a Russian citizen that he is suspected of violating Polish aviation law by flying a drone over Polish government buildings in Warsaw. In Poland, this is the ... … More »

  • BlackBerry revenue slumps; company outsources hardware
    BlackBerry revenue slumps; company outsources hardware Reuters - 45 minutes ago

    BlackBerry Ltd posted a 31.8 percent fall in second-quarter revenue and it said it would end all internal hardware development, including its well known smartphones. The Waterloo, Ontario-based company reported a net loss of $372 million, or 71 … More »

  • BlackBerry reports 2Q loss Associated Press - 47 minutes ago

    The Waterloo, Ontario-based company said it had a loss of 71 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs and stock option expense, came to less than 1 cent on a per-share basis. The average ... … More »

  • Honda reports another Takata airbag rupture in fatal Malaysia crash Reuters - 56 minutes ago

    The incident on Sept. 24 took place in Johor, a state in southern Malaysia, and involved a 2009 Honda City. The car was part of a product recall announced by Honda in June last year, that required the replacement of the Takata driver's front … More »

  • Iran says OPEC talks in Algeria pave way for a deal - SHANA Reuters - 1 hour 1 minute ago

    DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran's oil minister said on Wednesday an informal meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Algeria could pave the way for a deal to stabilise the oil market. ... … More »

  • In the lion's den, Draghi to defend ECB at Bundestag
    In the lion's den, Draghi to defend ECB at Bundestag Reuters - 1 hour 6 minutes ago

    BERLIN/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi faces a grilling on Wednesday from German lawmakers who say the ECB's super-loose monetary policy has damaged the 19-country currency bloc and fuelled the rise of the populist … More »

  • Exclusive: U.S. seeks accused Manila banker's help to crack Bangladesh heist
    Exclusive: U.S. seeks accused Manila banker's help to crack Bangladesh heist Reuters - 1 hour 8 minutes ago

    The FBI is negotiating with a former branch manager of a Philippines bank for information relating to $81 million that she handled after it was stolen from the Bangladesh central bank's account at the New York Federal Reserve, her lawyer said. … More »

  • German finance minister says not working on rescue plan for Deutsche Bank Reuters - 1 hour 16 minutes ago

    The German Finance Ministry on Wednesday denied a newspaper report that the government was working on a rescue plan for Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) in case the lender would be unable to raise capital to pay for costly litigation. "This report is … More »

  • Tie-up of world's biggest beer makers clears final hurdle Associated Press - 1 hour 32 minutes ago

    A deal worth over $100 billion to combine the world's two biggest beer companies cleared its last major hurdle Wednesday when the shareholders of SABMiller approved the takeover by Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch ... … More »

  • SABMiller shareholders comfortably back AB InBev takeover offer
    SABMiller shareholders comfortably back AB InBev takeover offer Reuters - 1 hour 35 minutes ago

    SABMiller (SAB.L) shareholders backed the brewer's $100-billion-plus takeover by rival Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BR) by a large majority on Wednesday, paving the way for one of the biggest corporate mergers in history. The 79 billion pound deal was … More »

  • SABMiller shareholders back AB InBev takeover
    SABMiller shareholders back AB InBev takeover AFP News - 1 hour 36 minutes ago

    British brewer SABMiller's shareholders on Wednesday approved a mega-takeover by rival Anheuser-Busch InBev, clearing the way for the creation of the world's biggest beer company. … More »

  • BRIEF-Gamuda Bhd qtrly net profit 152.1 mln rgt vs 153.7 mln rgt Reuters - 1 hour 42 minutes ago

    Sept 28 (Reuters) - Gamuda Bhd * Qtrly net profit 152.1 million rgt versus 153.7 million rgt ; revenue 614.4 million rgt versus 623.3 million rgt * Board of directors does not recommend the payment of ... … More »

  • British Airways, Qatar Airways sign revenue-sharing deal
    British Airways, Qatar Airways sign revenue-sharing deal Reuters - 1 hour 45 minutes ago

    British Airways has signed a revenue-sharing agreement with Qatar Airways, allowing the pair to co-operate on scheduling and pricing, BA's owner IAG (ICAG.L) said in a statement on Wednesday. State-owned Qatar Airways owns 20 percent of IAG as a … More »

  • Renzi's reforms leave Italian economy and voters flat Reuters - 1 hour 47 minutes ago

    Prime Minister Matteo Renzi logs the progress of Italian government projects on big sheets of paper, keeping track of everything from work on a long-delayed motorway to simplifying the notoriously complex tax code. After 2-1/2 years in power, Renzi … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.151+0.010+7.09%
    N21.SI
    0.975+0.010+1.04%
    Y92.SI
    0.144+0.002+1.41%
    5DM.SI
    4.00+0.01+0.25%
    Z74.SI
    0.675+0.050+8.00%
    BMT.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.37+0.12+45.10%
    AZT.SI
    0.24+0.05+26.32%
    AWI.SI
    0.15+0.02+15.38%
    RF7.SI
    0.215+0.026+13.76%
    I07.SI
    0.13+0.01+8.33%
    5UE.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.112-0.028-20.00%
    BEH.SI
    0.66-0.05-7.04%
    BTE.SI
    0.32-0.02-5.88%
    P9D.SI
    0.225-0.010-4.26%
    PA3.SI
    0.23-0.01-4.17%
    K14.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3606+0.0011+0.08%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5262+0.0013+0.09%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7713+0.0011+0.06%
    GBPSGD=X
    73.9160+0.06+0.08%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6978-0.0045-0.08%
    SGDHKD=X
    3.0382-0.0008-0.03%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,516.0420-12.4111-0.13%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9044-0.0011-0.02%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0431+0.0009+0.09%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,329.60-0.80-0.06%
    GCZ16.CMX
    19.22+0.05+0.29%
    SIZ16.CMX
    92.98-1.47-1.55%
    ^XAU
    2.18+0.01+0.58%
    HGZ16.CMX
    43.85+0.41+0.94%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.11-0.02
    ^FVX
    1.56-0.03
    ^TNX
    2.28-0.05
    ^TYX