Forex Analysis: US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness Ahead

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^USDOLLAR12,347.02+7.57

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning is warning a turn lower may be ahead as prices reverse from resistance while the S&P 500 probes toward 1500.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below resistance at the top of a rising channel set from mid-September, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 10066, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that initially exposes the 50% level at 10038. Channel resistance is now at 10152.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_Ahead_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1495.70, the 100% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that aims for the 123.6% level at 1531.30. Near-term support is in the 1470.40-74.90 area marked by the September 14 2012 high and the 76.4% Fib. A reversal below that targets the 61.8% expansion at 1454.50.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_Ahead_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices narrowly edged above resistance at 1690.39, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 50% level at 1710.37. This is reinforced by a falling channel top, now at 1707.40. A push above 1710.37 targets the 61.8% Fib at 1730.35. The 1690.39 mark has been recast as support, with a reversal back below that eyeing the 1650.74-57.35 area.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_Ahead_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continue to drift higher after taking out support-turned-resistance at 94.61. Near-term resistance is now at 98.21, marked by the top of a rising channel set from mid-December 2012. A break above that aims for the September 14 2012 close at 98.99. Near-term support is now in the 94.61-90 area.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_Ahead_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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