Forex Analysis: Euro Edges Higher On Greek Hopes- Fed Hawks In Focus

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
GBPUSD=X1.3023+0.0006
USDJPY=X101.3270+0.611
EURUSD=X1.1228+0.0011

Talking Points

  • Euro: EZ Slips Back Into Recession, Greek Aid Deal On Horizon
  • British Pound: Retail Sales Disappoints, Moody’s To Review U.K. Rating
  • U.S. Dollar: Rallies To Three-Month High, Fed Hawks On Tap

Euro: EZ Slips Back Into Recession, Greek Aid Deal On Horizon

The Euro climbed to 1.2771 as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble pledged to reach a decision on Greece ‘over the next few days,’ and there’s growing speculation that the periphery country will get a bundled aid package that could add up to more that EUR 44B as the region struggles to get its house in order.

At the same time, there are reports that the EU is looking to lower borrowing costs for Greece as the region fails to secure the next bailout payment, but we may see the group struggle to meet on common ground German lawmakers remain reluctant to accept a writedown on Greek debt.

Nevertheless, the advance 3Q GDP report showed the euro-area slipping back into recession as the growth rate contracted another 0.1% during the three-months through September, while the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly report showed a downward revision in the economic forecast as the region is now expected to grow an annualized 0.3% in 2013. As the fundamental outlook for the region deteriorates further, the ECB is likely to come under increased pressure to shore up the ailing economy, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials call for a rate cut in an effort to stem the downside risks surrounding the region.

As the EURUSD bounced back ahead of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50, we may see the pair continue to consolidate over the next 24-hours of trading, but the near-term correction may gather pace in the coming days as the relative strength index breaks out of the downward trend carried over from the previous month. Nevertheless, we will maintain a bearish outlook for the pair as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak, and the single currency remains poised to face additional headwinds over the near-term as the EU struggles to address the debt crisis.

British Pound: Retail Sales Disappoints, Moody’s To Review U.K. Rating

The British Pound slipped to a fresh monthly low of 1.5822 as U.K. retail sales contracted 0.8% in October amid forecasts for a 0.1%, while Moody’s Investor Services said it would assess the Aaa rating for Britain in 2013 as the region faces a protracted recovery.

Indeed, the ratings agency argued that ‘political appetite for significant additional expenditure cuts in the parliament is likely to be very limited’ as the region struggles to return to growth, and the persistent slack in the real economy may continue to fuel speculation for additional monetary support as the Bank of England (BoE) keeps the door open to expand its balance sheet further.

However, given sticky price growth, the heightening threat for inflation should keep the central bank on the sidelines over the near to medium-term, and we may see a growing number of BoE officials soften their dovish tone for monetary policy as the region emerges from the double-dip recession.

Nevertheless, the GBPUSD may continue to give back the rebound from earlier this year as it preserves the downward trend from 2011, but the pair looks poised for a near-term correction as the relative strength index bounces back head of oversold territory.

U.S. Dollar: Rallies To Three-Month High, Fed Hawks On Tap

The greenback surged higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) jumping to a fresh monthly high of 10,060, and the reserve currency may track higher throughout the North American trade as the flight to safety gathers pace.

Meanwhile, the U.S consumer price report showed the headline reading for inflation advancing 2.2% in October amid forecasts for a 2.1% print, and heightening price pressures in the world’s largest economy may sap speculation for additional monetary support from the Fed as the recovery gradually gathers pace. As we have a slew of Fed hawks scheduled to speak today, we may see a growing number of central bank officials talk down speculation for more quantitative easing, and the weakening argument for additional monetary support may spark a bullish reaction in the dollar as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy.

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

USD

15:00

10:00

Mortgage Delinquencies (3Q)

7.58%

USD

15:00

10:00

MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (3Q)

4.27%

USD

15:00

10:00

Philadelphia Fed. (NOV)

2.0

5.7

CAD

15:30

10:30

Bank of Canada Publishes Quarterly Review

USD

16:00

11:00

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 9)

1766K

USD

16:00

11:00

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (NOV 9)

131K

USD

16:00

11:00

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (NOV 9)

2875K

EUR

17:00

12:00

ECB's Jorg Asmussen Speaks on Euro Economy

USD

19:45

14:45

Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks on U.S. Economy

USD

21:00

16:00

Federal Reserve Releases Stress Test Scenarios

USD

21:30

16:30

Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks on U.S. Economy

USD

23:30

18:30

Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • Energy shares lead Asian stocks higher on OPEC output deal
    Energy shares lead Asian stocks higher on OPEC output deal Associated Press - 6 minutes ago

    Energy companies led a rally in Asian stock markets Thursday as investors welcomed news that OPEC nations planned to cut oil production for the first time in eight years in an effort to reduce a global ... … More »

  • Carmaker expects to break even in 3 years Business Times - 19 minutes ago

    SHAH ALAM: Proton Holdings Bhd expects to break even in three years by selling 5,000 units of its all-new Proton Saga a month. If we can sell 5,000 units a month, we can break even in three years,” said chief executive officer Datuk Ahmad Fuaad … More »

  • DRB-HICOM looking at 5 proposals for Proton partnership Business Times - 19 minutes ago

    SHAH ALAM: DRB-HICOM Bhd has short-listed five global carmakers to be its subsidiary Proton Holdings Bhd’s strategic partner. Group managing director Datuk Seri Syed Faisal Albar said the strategic partner would also own a stake in the national … More »

  • Petronas to review Canada project Business Times - 20 minutes ago

    KUALA LUMPUR: Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) will review a proposed C$36 billion (RM112.4 billion) liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Canada that was approved by Ottawa after a three-year wait. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s … More »

  • How You Can Get These 9 Irresistible Discounts Just By Being A Healthy Malaysian
    How You Can Get These 9 Irresistible Discounts Just By Being A Healthy Malaysian Vulcan Post - 23 minutes ago

    If you practise a healthy lifestyle, you’re probably aware of the benefits such as a lowered risk of disease, feeling better about your appearance and reduced stress levels. However, thanks to a unique insurance and health programme, you can now … … More »

  • If history holds, U.S. interest rates will start rising soon
    If history holds, U.S. interest rates will start rising soon Truewealth Publishing - 29 minutes ago

    Based on the relationship between U.S. presidential elections and interest rates, U.S. interest rates should be heading higher soon. As shown below, after 9 of the last 15 U.S. elections (since 1956), U.S. interest rates have gone up within the … More »

  • Oil prices surge after OPEC's surprise output cut deal
    Oil prices surge after OPEC's surprise output cut deal AFP News - 34 minutes ago

    Oil prices surged Thursday after the OPEC producers' group surprised the market with a deal to slash output. At the end of six hours of negotiations and weeks of horse trading, OPEC announced the plan to cut production to a level of 32.5-33 million … More »

  • Britain must explain Brexit strategy to limit uncertainty - think tank Reuters - 36 minutes ago

    Britain needs to begin explaining its Brexit strategy to avoid prolonged uncertainty for businesses and negotiating partners, a London-based think tank said on Thursday, warning that internal squabbling risked undermining the government's position. … More »

  • Tokyo shares up by break on oil deal AFP - 40 minutes ago

    Tokyo stocks rallied on Thursday, following upturns in US and European markets on a surprise deal by OPEC to cut oil production. Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 index climbed 1.42 percent, or 233.78 points, ... … More »

  • The underground pipeline shaping North Korea's new capitalists Reuters - 42 minutes ago

    As the United States and other nations grasp for new ways to sanction Pyongyang in response to its latest nuclear test, some North Korean defectors see investment in its rudimentary market economy as a way to foment gradual change from within. Last … More »

  • Hong Kong Stocks Rise for Third Day as Oil Boosts Energy Shares Bloomberg - 45 minutes ago

    The Hang Seng Index climbed 0.5 percent at 10:30 a.m. local time, extending a quarterly rally. Cnooc Ltd. and China Shenhua Energy Co. advanced more than 4 percent, while China Oilfield Services Ltd. jumped the most since June, after U.S. crude … More »

  • JUST SOLD: The Orchard Residences unit for $14.7 mil
    JUST SOLD: The Orchard Residences unit for $14.7 mil The Edge Property - 46 minutes ago

    At The Orchard Residences, a 4,532 sq ft, four-bedroom unit was sold for $14.7 million, or $3,244 psf on September 15. This is the priciest transaction among non-landed homes in district 9 this year. On the second spot is the transaction of a 3,767 … More »

  • Oil prices, stocks up on surprise OPEC deal though gains seen fizzling
    Oil prices, stocks up on surprise OPEC deal though gains seen fizzling Reuters - 51 minutes ago

    Oil prices extended gains in Asia on Thursday, boosting stock markets, after OPEC members agreed to curb output in a surprise deal, though investors were wary of chasing markets higher as the U.S. presidential election nears. MSCI's broadest index … More »

  • Better oil prices lift ringgit higher against US dollar Business Times - 1 hour 6 minutes ago

    KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit rebounded from three days of losses to open higher against the US dollar this morning, lifted by stronger oil prices, dealers said. At 9 am, the ringgit traded at 4.1120/1170 to the US dollar from 4.1360/1410 on Wednesday. … More »

  • 10 Ways to Maximise Your Closet Space
    10 Ways to Maximise Your Closet Space The Edge Property - 1 hour 20 minutes ago

    Source Weekday mornings usually find us scampering across our room and raiding our closets until we find the outfit we want for the day. For the organised one, this shouldn’t be a problem—clothes are neatly lined up and folded immaculately that it’s … More »

  • Oil prices climb on OPEC deal, lack of detail caps gains
    Oil prices climb on OPEC deal, lack of detail caps gains Reuters - 1 hour 22 minutes ago

    Oil futures extended gains on Thursday after rising nearly 6 percent the day before on a surprise move by OPEC to curb crude output. "The decision really took market by surprise - prices took a big leap, now there's pause for reflection," said Ben … More »

  • China’s Big Ball of Money Isn’t Going Anywhere Near Stocks (1) Bloomberg - 1 hour 25 minutes ago

    The Shanghai Composite Index will end the year at 3,075, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg poll of 10 strategists and fund managers. That implies a 13 percent drop over the 12-month period, the steepest in five years, and a gain of 2.9 … More »

  • Yuan Derivatives Trade Dries Up as Drop Swells Hedging Costs (1) Bloomberg - 1 hour 37 minutes ago

    Daily trading in yuan derivatives, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the total for the currency, slumped 30 percent from three years earlier, data from the Bank for International Settlements show. While central banks will need to buy the … More »

  • Asian Stocks Gain With Oil on OPEC Deal, Energy Shares Advance Bloomberg - 1 hour 41 minutes ago

    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7 percent to 141.82 as of 10:31 a.m. in Tokyo, set for its best quarter since the first three months of 2012. OPEC agreed to drop production to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels per day following a … More »

  • Overseas Investors Offload Most Japan Bonds Since at Least 2014 Bloomberg - 1 hour 45 minutes ago

    It was the third consecutive week that non-Japanese investors, who hold about 5 percent of the nation’s government bonds, pared their holdings. “Government bond redemptions on Sept. 20 played a major role in overseas investors’ net selling last … More »

  • Global fintech startup Trunomi sets sights on Asia with US$3M seed funding
    Global fintech startup Trunomi sets sights on Asia with US$3M seed funding e27 - 1 hour 46 minutes ago

    One of the investors is Singapore-based fintech VC firm Fintonia Group Global fintech startup Trunomi announced that it has raised a US$3 million seed funding round led by Singapore-based fintech venture capital (VC) firm Fintonia Group and US-based … More »

  • Why Singapore savings bonds should be a part of your portfolio
    Why Singapore savings bonds should be a part of your portfolio ZUU online - 1 hour 54 minutes ago

    The second half of 2015 saw the Monetary Authority of Singapore introduce the Singapore Savings B... … More »

  • Tokyo shares rally after surprise oil deal AFP - 2 hours 2 minutes ago

    Tokyo stocks opened higher on Thursday after US and European markets rallied on a surprise deal by OPEC to cut oil production. Officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, meeting ... … More »

  • Six blue-chip stocks for investors to buy in Singapore
    Six blue-chip stocks for investors to buy in Singapore ZUU online - 2 hours 11 minutes ago

    So, perhaps you’ve seen the movie Wall Street and walked away in total awe of Gordon Gekko. You’r... … More »

  • 4 Office Etiquettes Your Annoying Colleague Needs To Learn ASAP
    4 Office Etiquettes Your Annoying Colleague Needs To Learn ASAP GET.com - 2 hours 17 minutes ago

    Have you ever had an annoying colleague, Singaporean or not, who never fails to make practically... … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.157+0.006+3.97%
    N21.SI
    0.114+0.005+4.59%
    40E.SI
    0.295+0.020+7.27%
    5ME.SI
    0.128+0.006+4.92%
    A50.SI
    0.158+0.002+1.28%
    AFC.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.35+0.05+16.67%
    AYV.SI
    0.119+0.015+14.42%
    A7S.SI
    0.33+0.04+12.63%
    BJE.SI
    0.27+0.03+12.50%
    AWI.SI
    0.255+0.025+10.87%
    BJD.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.09-0.01-14.29%
    42D.SI
    0.25-0.03-10.71%
    F86.SI
    0.151-0.016-9.58%
    5WJ.SI
    0.525-0.035-6.25%
    AWZ.SI
    0.14-0.01-6.04%
    5AM.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3609+0.002+0.15%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5281+0.0042+0.28%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7727+0.0044+0.25%
    GBPSGD=X
    74.4470+0.335+0.45%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6955-0.0086-0.15%
    SGDHKD=X
    3.0213-0.0103-0.34%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,518.4414-43.1611-0.45%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9004-0.0098-0.20%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0474+0.0028+0.27%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,328.90+5.20+0.39%
    GCZ16.CMX
    19.33+0.21+1.12%
    SIZ16.CMX
    95.67+2.69+2.89%
    ^XAU
    2.20+0.02+0.75%
    HGZ16.CMX
    43.85+0.41+0.94%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.13+0.02
    ^FVX
    1.57+0.01
    ^TNX
    2.29+0.01
    ^TYX