Forex Analysis: EUR/CHF Trades to 20 Month High; Significant Breakout?

Longer term focus remains on the Euro crosses, which may be on the verge of significant bullish breakouts. Yen trading volume is consistent with at least near term capitulation.

Japanese Yen Futures Contract with Volume

Weekly

Forex_Analysis_EURCHF_Trades_to_20_Month_High_Significant_Breakout_body_yen.png, Forex Analysis: EUR/CHF Trades to 20 Month High; Significant Breakout?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Observation: I am showing the futures chart rather than spot in order to show volume. Thursday’s volume was the highest since October 31st 2011, which was the coordinated intervention day. On a weekly basis, volume reached its highest level since the week that ended March 18th, 2011. That was also an intervention week and just after the devastating earthquake. The situations are different in that the 2011 volume events can be explained by exogenous factors but the situations are similar in that volume of this magnitude is consistent with capitulation. The close of a high volume week (or day) is important because a lot of volume occurs at the close or near the close. For this reason it’s interesting that the USDJPY is nearing the May 2010 flash crash close level of 9059. (The magenta bars indicate the highest volume in at least 13 weeks).

FOREX Trading Implication: 9050/70 is an area that could produce a top. The longer term trend is higher (towards a weaker Yen) but there will be sharp corrections along the way.

EURUSD

Weekly

Forex_Analysis_EURCHF_Trades_to_20_Month_High_Significant_Breakout_body_eurusd.png, Forex Analysis: EUR/CHF Trades to 20 Month High; Significant Breakout?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Observation: “A yearlong bottoming pattern has been confirmed as complete and the first EURUSD objective isn’t until above 13800 (61.8% of decline from 2011 high and where the rally from the 2012 low would consist of 2 equal legs).”

FOREX Trading Implication: Given the significance of the longer term bottoming pattern, I’m willing to stay bullish as long as price is above 13100. I’m a buyer on dips with interest at 13250 (see daily chart below…the 20 day average and trendline that has served as support and resistance since November is near that level along with last Friday’s low and this week’s low).

EURUSD

Daily

Forex_Analysis_EURCHF_Trades_to_20_Month_High_Significant_Breakout_body_eurusd_1.png, Forex Analysis: EUR/CHF Trades to 20 Month High; Significant Breakout?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD

Weekly

Forex_Analysis_EURCHF_Trades_to_20_Month_High_Significant_Breakout_body_gbpusd.png, Forex Analysis: EUR/CHF Trades to 20 Month High; Significant Breakout?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Observation: The GBPUSD accelerated lower today following the nearly 7 month trendline break. Near term focus is on the November low at 15822, which is also the 50% retracement of the rally from the June low. The nearly 4 year triangle line comes in just above 15700 next week.

FOREX Trading Implication: Given the potential for an even more significant breakdown in the coming weeks, continue to move the stop down. Since yesterday, the stop has been moved down from 16185 (initial risk) to 16105 (breakeven) to 15955.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily

Forex_Analysis_EURCHF_Trades_to_20_Month_High_Significant_Breakout_body_euraud.png, Forex Analysis: EUR/CHF Trades to 20 Month High; Significant Breakout?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Observation: The EURAUD is again threatening the neckline from the inverse head and shoulders pattern that begin in February 2012. If this break materializes then long term objectives don’t begin until the March 2011 high at 14343 (see the monthly chart below for perspective). Bulls must contend with the 2012 high at 13030 before then of course. Near term conditions must be described as range until price overcomes the 1/2 high at 12726.

FOREX Trading Implication: Looking to buy a dip into 12520/70 or buy a breakout above 12806.

Euro / Swiss Franc

Weekly

Forex_Analysis_EURCHF_Trades_to_20_Month_High_Significant_Breakout_body_eurchf.png, Forex Analysis: EUR/CHF Trades to 20 Month High; Significant Breakout?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Observation: The EURCHF is a market again and may be gearing for a run to counter at least a significant portion of the decline from the 2007 high. Price traded through the October 2011 high and a multiyear trendline this week before settling just below the upper quartile of the week’s range. Support extends from the current level to 12300 and the next significant resistance level isn’t until above 13200. Trader sentiment surrounding this market is fascinating. Many were willing to sit in a position that did nothing for an entire year and many are willing to exit the position after 2 weeks of strength.

FOREX Trading Implication: I’ll maintain a bullish bias as long as price is above the former range high of 12184.

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

Weekly

Forex_Analysis_EURCHF_Trades_to_20_Month_High_Significant_Breakout_body_audnzd.png, Forex Analysis: EUR/CHF Trades to 20 Month High; Significant Breakout?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Observation: If 2013 is ‘the year of the breakout’, then the next big AUDNZD move is probably lower…a lot lower. A multiyear head and shoulders top is complete in the AUDNZD. After a false break in December, price is once again below the neckline. Weakness below October’s low (12370) is needed to get comfortably bearish. Until then, this is a range.

FOREX Trading Implication: Weakness below October’s low (12370) is needed to get comfortably bearish. Until then, this is a range.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive actionable FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • China manufacturing activity expands slightly in September - official PMI Reuters - 20 minutes ago

    BEIJING (Reuters) - Activity in China's manufacturing sector expanded slightly in September, an official survey showed on Saturday. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (CNPMIB=ECI) (PMI) stood at 50.4 ... … More »

  • China Factory Gauge Signals Economic Stabilization Still Intact Bloomberg - 38 minutes ago

    "Thanks to heavy fiscal stimulus through SOE investments, production related to infrastructure projects and the enlarging current account surplus, GDP growth could edge up to 6.9 percent in Q3 and Q4, bringing the annual figure to 6.8 percent," … More »

  • Glencore's former No. 2 aluminium trader buys bankrupt U.S. smelter Reuters - 39 minutes ago

    Noranda Aluminium Holding Corp (NORNQ.PK) said on Friday it sold its 263,000 tonne-per-year New Madrid primary aluminium smelter in Missouri to ARG for $13.7 million in a court-approved auction. Noranda filed for bankruptcy in February after … More »

  • Expats guide to personal finance in Singapore
    Expats guide to personal finance in Singapore ZUU online - 1 hour 51 minutes ago

    Singapore remains an attractive location for expats due to its English-speaking culture, world-cl... … More »

  • NTSB has yet to interview injured engineer in deadly crash
    NTSB has yet to interview injured engineer in deadly crash Associated Press - 2 hours 3 minutes ago

    National Transportation Safety Board investigators held off questioning the engineer in the deadly Hoboken train crash because of his injuries Friday and struggled to lift clues from the train's black ... … More »

  • The Latest: Investigators say train crew 'very cooperative'
    The Latest: Investigators say train crew 'very cooperative' Associated Press - 2 hours 9 minutes ago

    The Latest on a commuter train that crashed into a station in New Jersey, killing one person and injuring more than 100 others (all times local): 7:20 p.m. The National Transportation Safety Board says ... … More »

  • PM May orders employment law review as labour market changes
    PM May orders employment law review as labour market changes Reuters - 2 hours 17 minutes ago

    British Prime Minister Theresa May ordered a review of employment practices on Saturday, saying she wanted to ensure workers' rights were protected under changing business models and a growing trend towards flexible or self-employment. The review … More »

  • Hammond says Brexit deal should not harm economy - Telegraph
    Hammond says Brexit deal should not harm economy - Telegraph Reuters - 2 hours 21 minutes ago

    British controls on immigration following the country's referendum decision to leave the European Union must not be damaging for the economy, finance minister Philip Hammond was quoted as saying in the Daily Telegraph story on Friday. Hammond told … More »

  • China's yuan joins elite club of IMF reserve currencies Reuters - 2 hours 29 minutes ago

    China's yuan joins the International Monetary Fund's basket of reserve currencies on Saturday in a milestone for the government's campaign for recognition as a global economic power. It is the first time that a currency has been added to sit … More »

  • Stocks rebound in Deutsche Bank-led volatile trading
    Stocks rebound in Deutsche Bank-led volatile trading AFP News - 2 hours 37 minutes ago

    US and eurozone shares pushed higher Friday in volatile trade driven by Deutsche Bank's negotiations to settle US charges over its sale of toxic mortgage bonds before the financial crisis. News that Deutsche Bank was close to a much lower … More »

  • Accounting software maker BlackLine files for IPO Reuters - 2 hours 53 minutes ago

    Los Angeles-based BlackLine, founded in 2001 by Chief Executive Therese Tucker, counts Coca-Cola Co (KO.N), Under Armour (UA.N) and Dow Chemical Co (DOW.N) among its 1,500 customers. Reuters reported last week that the company was preparing for an … More »

  • Florida Lottery plans major expansion under huge new deal Associated Press - 3 hours ago

    The Florida Lottery — which just registered more than $6 billion in annual sales — is in line for a large expansion due to a massive new contract that state officials signed this month. Lottery officials, ... … More »

  • Deutsche Bank pressure eases as US fine looks smaller
    Deutsche Bank pressure eases as US fine looks smaller AFP News - 3 hours ago

    Heavy market pressure on Deutsche Bank eased Friday as a knowledgeable source told AFP the US fine over toxic debt it sold would be only $5.4 billion, not the $14 billion originally demanded. A person familiar with the talks between Deutsche Bank … More »

  • A Deutsche Bank settlement overshadows U.S. equities
    A Deutsche Bank settlement overshadows U.S. equities Reuters - 3 hours ago

    Deutsche Bank will likely cast a pall over equity markets next week as the largest German lender navigates a possible multi-billion dollar settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over the sale of mortgage-backed bonds. Deutsche shares traded … More »

  • A Yahoo insider believes the hackers could really have stolen over 1 billion accounts
    A Yahoo insider believes the hackers could really have stolen over 1 billion accounts Business Insider - 3 hours ago

    REUTERS/Ruben Sprich Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer The actual … Continued The post A Yahoo insider believes the hackers could really have stolen over 1 billion accounts appeared first on Business Insider. … More »

  • IMF leader cites 'historic milestone' for China
    IMF leader cites 'historic milestone' for China Associated Press - 3 hours ago

    Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is calling the inclusion of China's renminbi as the fifth currency in an elite group of the world's reserve currencies an "important ... … More »

  • Chinese yuan set to join IMF's elite currency basket
    Chinese yuan set to join IMF's elite currency basket AFP News - 3 hours ago

    China's yuan is poised to enter the International Monetary Fund's elite SDR basket of currencies, elevating Beijing's banknotes into a family long exclusive to global reserve assets. A symbolic coup for policymakers in Beijing, the move represents … More »

  • Business Highlights Associated Press - 3 hours ago

    ___ Malls, stores consider new ways to protect shoppers More sophisticated cameras. Security robots. Customers feeling shaken by recent attacks at U.S. malls may not notice huge changes — but mall operators ... … More »

  • The only executive to hold a high-ranking position at both Uber and Lyft is leaving Uber
    The only executive to hold a high-ranking position at both Uber and Lyft is leaving Uber Business Insider - 3 hours ago

    Uber Uber’s VP of Driver Growth, Travis VanderZanden, … Continued The post The only executive to hold a high-ranking position at both Uber and Lyft is leaving Uber appeared first on Business Insider. … More »

  • Trump vs Miss Universe: White House race hits new low
    Trump vs Miss Universe: White House race hits new low AFP News - 4 hours ago

    Donald Trump urged voters on Friday to check out the supposed "sex tape" of a former Miss Universe backing his rival Hillary Clinton, provoking the Democrat to label him "unhinged" in a surreal new turn to the White House race. In a pre-dawn … More »

  • Data storage provider Nutanix soars in market debut
    Data storage provider Nutanix soars in market debut Reuters - 4 hours ago

    After getting strong encouragement from investors, the company kept nudging up the asking price for shares from the $11 to $13 range set early last week, co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Dheeraj Pandey said in an interview on Friday. … More »

  • Municipal-bond week in review: Yields sag then finish strong Associated Press - 4 hours ago

    Yields on municipal and Treasury bonds sagged this week on concerns about the health of Germany's largest bank, before retracing their steps on Friday. The 10-year yield on the AP Municipal Bond index ... … More »

  • Nutanix exceeds expectations in upsized IPO Reuters - 4 hours ago

    San Jose, California-based Nutanix's share price exceeds the $13.40 value last placed on its shares in a 2014 funding round, an upgrade encouraging for the many unprofitable technology companies that, like Nutanix, have been weary of testing public … More »

  • US stocks rally on Deutsche Bank deal AFP - 4 hours ago

    US stocks rose strongly Friday as financial shares surged on news that Deutsche Bank was near a settlement with US regulators over its sale of toxic mortgage bonds before the financial crisis. US-traded ... … More »

  • How the Dow Jones industrial average fared on Friday Associated Press - 4 hours ago

    U.S. stocks climbed Friday as banks made a rapid recovery following a steep fall a day ago. Investors hoped Deutsche Bank and the financial system in general were in better shape than they had feared. ... … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.152-0.008-5.00%
    N21.SI
    0.12+0.01+12.15%
    40F.SI
    0.115+0.003+2.68%
    40E.SI
    0.113+0.007+6.60%
    43E.SI
    3.97-0.05-1.24%
    Z74.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.186+0.025+15.53%
    AWS.SI
    0.12+0.01+12.15%
    40F.SI
    0.164+0.016+10.81%
    40N.SI
    1.35+0.11+8.43%
    U19.SI
    0.475+0.035+7.95%
    NC2.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.36-0.24-40.00%
    AWG.SI
    0.20-0.06-23.08%
    AWI.SI
    0.27-0.03-11.48%
    BQO.SI
    0.30-0.03-9.09%
    5VP.SI
    0.265-0.025-8.62%
    BKA.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3618-0.0022-0.16%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5296-0.0004-0.03%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7640-0.0041-0.23%
    GBPSGD=X
    74.1220+0.051+0.07%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6879+0.0039+0.07%
    SGDHKD=X
    3.0355+0.0126+0.42%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,608.6318+65.9189+0.69%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.8930+0.006+0.12%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0421+0.0012+0.12%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,318.80-7.20-0.54%
    GCZ16.CMX
    19.25+0.06+0.30%
    SIZ16.CMX
    94.00-1.01-1.06%
    ^XAU
    2.21+0.02+1.07%
    HGZ16.CMX
    43.85+0.41+0.94%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.16+0.04
    ^FVX
    1.61+0.05
    ^TNX
    2.34+0.06
    ^TYX