FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

ssi_gbp-jpy_body_Picture_1.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

AUDUSD – Retail forex traders are now net-long the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) for the first time in a month, and the sharp shift in retail sentiment warns that the AUDUSD may have set a significant top through recent trading.

A sharp Australian Dollar sell-off from the November high was the first signal that the AUD may have set a significant peak, and we’ve likewise seen the number of retail traders long AUDUSD surge 32 percent since the peak. A similar 28 percent tumble in the number of traders short now leaves crowds at a net-long AUD position for the first time since October.

We use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data as a contrarian indicator to price action; if the majority of traders are buying, we prefer to sell. Indeed, our retail sentiment-based FX trading strategies took a AUDUSD short from $1.0378.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3634-0.0021-0.15%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5249-0.0021-0.14%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0951-0.0025-0.12%
    GBPSGD=X
    87.8452-0.1483-0.17%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6884+0.0088+0.16%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.6602+0.001+0.04%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,510.8008-6.6025-0.07%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.6013+0.0073+0.16%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0660+0.0063+0.60%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,220.00+6.90+0.57%
    GCJ15.CMX
    16.74+0.18+1.10%
    SIK15.CMX
    75.26-1.68-2.18%
    ^XAU
    2.71+0.02+0.65%
    HGK15.CMX
    49.23-0.53-1.07%
    CLJ15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.58+0.07
    ^FVX
    2.08+0.08
    ^TNX
    2.68+0.09
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.42+0.02+5.00%
    E5H.SI
    100.012-0.0020.00%
    41H.SI
    1.01+0.06+6.88%
    N21.SI
    0.057-0.060-51.28%
    F3V.SI
    1.242-0.011-0.88%
    41I.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.215+0.025+13.16%
    5RE.SI
    0.138+0.018+15.00%
    5WG.SI
    0.18+0.02+12.50%
    PH0.SI
    0.166+0.020+13.70%
    5OU.SI
    0.18+0.01+7.78%
    T19.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.057-0.060-51.28%
    F3V.SI
    0.19-0.06-22.45%
    5TS.SI
    0.35-0.03-9.09%
    QS9.SI
    0.157-0.018-10.29%
    K6J.SI
    0.141-0.019-11.87%
    C3T.SI