FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

ssi_gbp-jpy_body_Picture_1.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

AUDUSD – Retail forex traders are now net-long the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) for the first time in a month, and the sharp shift in retail sentiment warns that the AUDUSD may have set a significant top through recent trading.

A sharp Australian Dollar sell-off from the November high was the first signal that the AUD may have set a significant peak, and we’ve likewise seen the number of retail traders long AUDUSD surge 32 percent since the peak. A similar 28 percent tumble in the number of traders short now leaves crowds at a net-long AUD position for the first time since October.

We use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data as a contrarian indicator to price action; if the majority of traders are buying, we prefer to sell. Indeed, our retail sentiment-based FX trading strategies took a AUDUSD short from $1.0378.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3535+0.0001+0.01%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5000+0.0045+0.30%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7790-0.0077-0.43%
    GBPSGD=X
    77.4980-0.285-0.37%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7291-0.0003-0.01%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9913-0.0215-0.71%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,683.2568-31.9629-0.33%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9164-0.0109-0.22%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0156+0.0023+0.23%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,340.90+6.40+0.48%
    GCZ16.CMX
    20.22+0.22+1.13%
    SIU16.CMX
    106.29-1.29-1.20%
    ^XAU
    2.21+0.03+1.26%
    HGU16.CMX
    41.26-0.66-1.57%
    CLU16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.100.00
    ^FVX
    1.520.00
    ^TNX
    2.24+0.01
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.36-0.01-4.00%
    E5H.SI
    0.51+0.02+5.15%
    5TP.SI
    0.315-0.030-8.70%
    5ME.SI
    0.166-0.003-1.78%
    N21.SI
    4.29-0.02-0.46%
    Z74.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.255+0.064+33.51%
    AZT.SI
    0.29+0.03+9.43%
    S71.SI
    0.235+0.020+9.30%
    S46.SI
    0.195+0.016+8.94%
    P36.SI
    0.955+0.075+8.52%
    5HJ.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.093-0.037-28.46%
    42D.SI
    0.215-0.065-23.21%
    BQN.SI
    0.103-0.030-22.56%
    BEZ.SI
    0.26-0.06-18.75%
    5UL.SI
    0.295-0.040-11.94%
    BBP.SI