FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

ssi_gbp-jpy_body_Picture_1.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

AUDUSD – Retail forex traders are now net-long the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) for the first time in a month, and the sharp shift in retail sentiment warns that the AUDUSD may have set a significant top through recent trading.

A sharp Australian Dollar sell-off from the November high was the first signal that the AUD may have set a significant peak, and we’ve likewise seen the number of retail traders long AUDUSD surge 32 percent since the peak. A similar 28 percent tumble in the number of traders short now leaves crowds at a net-long AUD position for the first time since October.

We use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data as a contrarian indicator to price action; if the majority of traders are buying, we prefer to sell. Indeed, our retail sentiment-based FX trading strategies took a AUDUSD short from $1.0378.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3733-0.0049-0.36%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5372-0.0005-0.04%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0147-0.0115-0.57%
    GBPSGD=X
    79.9254-0.0369-0.05%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6550+0.0199+0.35%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9572-0.0122-0.41%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,871.1289-9.5088-0.10%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.7741+0.016+0.34%
    SGDCNY=X
    0.9919+0.0002+0.02%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,219.90-3.90-0.32%
    GCM16.CMX
    16.34+0.08+0.52%
    SIN16.CMX
    82.12-0.10-0.12%
    ^XAU
    2.100.000.00%
    HGN16.CMX
    49.31-0.25-0.50%
    CLN16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.34-0.06
    ^FVX
    1.82-0.05
    ^TNX
    2.63-0.04
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.310.00+1.64%
    N21.SI
    0.112-0.002-1.75%
    40E.SI
    3.86+0.04+1.05%
    Z74.SI
    1.775-0.010-0.56%
    MC0.SI
    0.375+0.005+1.35%
    E5H.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.23+0.03+17.35%
    BER.SI
    0.12+0.02+14.29%
    T42.SI
    0.35+0.03+11.11%
    L5I.SI
    0.26+0.02+10.64%
    BKW.SI
    0.152+0.012+8.57%
    5OT.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.37-0.13-26.00%
    BKK.SI
    0.525-0.140-21.05%
    AWE.SI
    0.40-0.08-16.67%
    BLR.SI
    0.15-0.03-16.20%
    5PF.SI
    0.28-0.04-12.50%
    BOU.SI