FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

ssi_gbp-jpy_body_Picture_1.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

AUDUSD – Retail forex traders are now net-long the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) for the first time in a month, and the sharp shift in retail sentiment warns that the AUDUSD may have set a significant top through recent trading.

A sharp Australian Dollar sell-off from the November high was the first signal that the AUD may have set a significant peak, and we’ve likewise seen the number of retail traders long AUDUSD surge 32 percent since the peak. A similar 28 percent tumble in the number of traders short now leaves crowds at a net-long AUD position for the first time since October.

We use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data as a contrarian indicator to price action; if the majority of traders are buying, we prefer to sell. Indeed, our retail sentiment-based FX trading strategies took a AUDUSD short from $1.0378.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3420+0.0048+0.36%
    USDSGD=X
    1.4736+0.0057+0.39%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0765+0.0077+0.37%
    GBPSGD=X
    90.6574-0.2377-0.26%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7760-0.0212-0.37%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.6840-0.0097-0.36%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,819.0811-16.4053-0.17%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.6388+0.0037+0.08%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0498+0.005+0.48%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,204.00+1.30+0.11%
    GCM15.CMX
    17.03-0.04-0.21%
    SIM15.CMX
    71.25-0.60-0.84%
    ^XAU
    2.81-0.04-1.39%
    HGN15.CMX
    61.30-0.70-1.13%
    CLZ15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.56+0.05
    ^FVX
    2.21+0.03
    ^TNX
    2.99+0.01
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.34+0.05+15.25%
    AFC.SI
    0.146+0.011+8.15%
    5MM.SI
    0.290.000.00%
    5WA.SI
    0.129+0.003+2.38%
    E13.SI
    0.138+0.005+3.76%
    5G9.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.34+0.05+15.25%
    AFC.SI
    0.62+0.06+10.71%
    AXK.SI
    0.235+0.020+9.30%
    5CF.SI
    0.146+0.011+8.15%
    5MM.SI
    0.16+0.01+7.38%
    T08.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.21-0.06-22.22%
    AVX.SI
    0.505-0.090-15.13%
    AXA.SI
    0.25-0.04-13.79%
    E94.SI
    0.34-0.05-12.82%
    UV1.SI
    0.805-0.100-11.05%
    NC9.SI