FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

ssi_gbp-jpy_body_Picture_1.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

AUDUSD – Retail forex traders are now net-long the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) for the first time in a month, and the sharp shift in retail sentiment warns that the AUDUSD may have set a significant top through recent trading.

A sharp Australian Dollar sell-off from the November high was the first signal that the AUD may have set a significant peak, and we’ve likewise seen the number of retail traders long AUDUSD surge 32 percent since the peak. A similar 28 percent tumble in the number of traders short now leaves crowds at a net-long AUD position for the first time since October.

We use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data as a contrarian indicator to price action; if the majority of traders are buying, we prefer to sell. Indeed, our retail sentiment-based FX trading strategies took a AUDUSD short from $1.0378.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3283-0.0042-0.32%
    USDSGD=X
    1.4459-0.0016-0.11%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0229+0.0001+0.01%
    GBPSGD=X
    89.6630+0.4435+0.50%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.8351+0.0189+0.33%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.6690-0.0132-0.49%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,751.9863+33.4102+0.34%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.6821+0.033+0.71%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0427+0.0006+0.06%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,201.70+26.70+2.27%
    GCM15.CMX
    16.35+0.71+4.57%
    SIK15.CMX
    71.68+1.72+2.46%
    ^XAU
    2.77+0.03+0.95%
    HGK15.CMX
    56.78-0.37-0.65%
    CLM15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.34+0.02
    ^FVX
    1.92+0.01
    ^TNX
    2.61-0.01
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.23+0.01+2.22%
    5GB.SI
    0.85+0.01+1.19%
    N21.SI
    0.2950.0000.00%
    5WA.SI
    0.425-0.005-1.16%
    E5H.SI
    0.41+0.02+5.13%
    5EN.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.184+0.031+20.26%
    W12.SI
    0.225+0.025+12.50%
    D38.SI
    0.12+0.01+11.11%
    E6R.SI
    0.26+0.02+10.64%
    D79.SI
    0.425+0.040+10.39%
    TI6.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.113-0.046-28.93%
    5IF.SI
    0.105-0.020-16.00%
    5DL.SI
    0.50-0.07-12.28%
    D11.SI
    0.197-0.023-10.45%
    AFC.SI
    0.146-0.016-9.88%
    T19.SI