FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

ssi_gbp-jpy_body_Picture_1.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

AUDUSD – Retail forex traders are now net-long the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) for the first time in a month, and the sharp shift in retail sentiment warns that the AUDUSD may have set a significant top through recent trading.

A sharp Australian Dollar sell-off from the November high was the first signal that the AUD may have set a significant peak, and we’ve likewise seen the number of retail traders long AUDUSD surge 32 percent since the peak. A similar 28 percent tumble in the number of traders short now leaves crowds at a net-long AUD position for the first time since October.

We use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data as a contrarian indicator to price action; if the majority of traders are buying, we prefer to sell. Indeed, our retail sentiment-based FX trading strategies took a AUDUSD short from $1.0378.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3568-0.001-0.08%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5525-0.0071-0.46%
    EURSGD=X
    1.9653-0.0034-0.17%
    GBPSGD=X
    79.1348+0.3343+0.42%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7200+0.0029+0.05%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9553-0.0093-0.31%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,828.5986-23.7705-0.24%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.7956+0.0118+0.25%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0151+0.0024+0.24%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,277.80+3.40+0.27%
    GCM16.CMX
    17.40+0.10+0.57%
    SIN16.CMX
    83.27-3.96-4.54%
    ^XAU
    2.16-0.03-1.14%
    HGN16.CMX
    45.28+1.50+3.43%
    CLM16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.24-0.02
    ^FVX
    1.78-0.02
    ^TNX
    2.64-0.02
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.415-0.010-2.35%
    N21.SI
    0.50+0.05+11.11%
    42R.SI
    3.80+0.04+1.06%
    Z74.SI
    0.380.00-1.30%
    E5H.SI
    0.78+0.01+1.30%
    G13.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.194+0.003+1.57%
    AZT.SI
    0.25+0.04+19.05%
    Y35.SI
    0.325+0.040+14.04%
    B49.SI
    0.81+0.06+7.28%
    5ER.SI
    0.50+0.05+11.11%
    42R.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.20-0.02-6.98%
    AWI.SI
    0.21-0.02-6.67%
    L38.SI
    0.198+0.002+1.02%
    BDN.SI
    0.172-0.013-7.03%
    AWQ.SI
    0.265-0.015-5.36%
    A30.SI