FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

ssi_gbp-jpy_body_Picture_1.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: Australian Dollar Likely Topped

AUDUSD – Retail forex traders are now net-long the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) for the first time in a month, and the sharp shift in retail sentiment warns that the AUDUSD may have set a significant top through recent trading.

A sharp Australian Dollar sell-off from the November high was the first signal that the AUD may have set a significant peak, and we’ve likewise seen the number of retail traders long AUDUSD surge 32 percent since the peak. A similar 28 percent tumble in the number of traders short now leaves crowds at a net-long AUD position for the first time since October.

We use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data as a contrarian indicator to price action; if the majority of traders are buying, we prefer to sell. Indeed, our retail sentiment-based FX trading strategies took a AUDUSD short from $1.0378.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.26-0.01-3.70%
    N21.SI
    0.134+0.003+2.29%
    41F.SI
    0.192-0.006-3.03%
    40F.SI
    0.1060.0000.00%
    5WA.SI
    0.38-0.02-3.80%
    5ME.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.515+0.195+60.94%
    AWC.SI
    0.525+0.075+16.67%
    T55.SI
    0.36+0.04+12.50%
    P9J.SI
    0.59+0.04+8.26%
    J2T.SI
    0.28+0.02+7.69%
    BDU.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.565-0.065-10.32%
    600.SI
    0.945-0.050-5.03%
    BS6.SI
    1.74-0.08-4.13%
    S51.SI
    0.485-0.020-3.96%
    P19.SI
    0.25-0.01-3.85%
    D6U.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.4069-0.0006-0.04%
    USDSGD=X
    1.4884-0.0005-0.03%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7654-0.0011-0.06%
    GBPSGD=X
    80.1400+0.078+0.10%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.5145+0.0037+0.07%
    SGDHKD=X
    3.1605-0.0021-0.07%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,512.7930-11.542-0.12%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.8833+0.0055+0.11%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0849-0.0006-0.06%
    AUDSGD=X
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    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,251.00-0.40-0.03%
    GCJ17.CMX
    18.17+0.06+0.32%
    SIH17.CMX
    89.61-0.30-0.34%
    ^XAU
    2.66+0.01+0.53%
    HGH17.CMX
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    CLJ17.NYM
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