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What to Expect from ConocoPhillips’ 1Q16 Earnings

Nicholas Chapman

What Analysts Predict for ConocoPhillips’ 1Q16 Earnings

ConocoPhillips’ 1Q16 earnings and revenue estimates

ConocoPhillips (COP) is set to report its 1Q16 earnings on April 28, 2016, before the markets open. For 1Q16, Wall Street analysts expect ConocoPhillips to report an adjusted loss of $0.97 per share, which is $0.79 per share lower when compared with its 1Q15 loss of $0.18 per share. Even when compared sequentially with 4Q15, ConocoPhillips’ 1Q16 earnings expectations are lower by $0.07 per share.

For 1Q16, Wall Street analysts expect ConocoPhillips to report revenues of ~$6.1 billion, which is lower by ~24% when compared with 1Q15 revenues of ~$8 billion. Even when compared sequentially with 4Q15, COP’s 1Q16 revenues expectations are lower by ~10%. The lower revenues expectations for 1Q16 are the direct result of lower production guidance as well as a steep decline in crude oil (USO) (UWTI) (DWTI) and natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ) (UGAZ) prices.

ConocoPhillips’ earnings trend

As seen in the above chart, ConocoPhillips reported much lower earnings in 2015 due to lower realized crude oil (USO) (OIL) (SCO) and natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) prices. In 1Q15, COP saw its adjusted earnings turn negative for the first time since 2013. In 4Q15, excluding the one-time items, COP reported a loss of $0.90 per share, $0.25 worse than the consensus for a loss of $0.65 per share. Its revenues fell ~40% year-over-year to ~$6.8 billion. Since 1Q13, COP beat the earnings expectations ~83% of the time.

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Due to the steep downward trend in energy prices, many upstream companies like Murphy Oil (MUR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), CONSOL Energy (CNX), and Range Resources (RRC) have reported ~53%, ~34%, ~18%, and ~53% year-over-year decline in their 4Q15 revenues, respectively.

In this series

In this series, we’ll also look at COP’s production guidance, what Wall Street analysts are saying about ConocoPhillips ahead of its earnings, and how COP’s stock price reacted to past earnings.

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