Estimating The Fair Value Of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. (SGX:BS6)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) is S$1.69 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)'s S$1.67 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate

• Our fair value estimate is 11% lower than Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)'s analyst price target of CN¥1.91

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. (SGX:BS6) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)

Is Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Fairly Valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥1.54b	CN¥3.60b	CN¥3.15b	CN¥2.90b	CN¥2.76b	CN¥2.68b	CN¥2.64b	CN¥2.63b	CN¥2.64b	CN¥2.66b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ -12.27%	Est @ -7.98%	Est @ -4.98%	Est @ -2.88%	Est @ -1.41%	Est @ -0.38%	Est @ 0.34%	Est @ 0.84%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6%	CN¥1.4k	CN¥3.0k	CN¥2.5k	CN¥2.1k	CN¥1.8k	CN¥1.6k	CN¥1.5k	CN¥1.4k	CN¥1.3k	CN¥1.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥18b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.7b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.6%– 2.0%) = CN¥41b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥41b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)¹⁰= CN¥18b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥36b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$1.7, the company appears about fair value at a 1.4% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.090. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market.

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings), there are three further items you should further research:

1. Risks: Be aware that Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

2. Future Earnings: How does BS6's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SGX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.