EM ASIA FX-Singapore dollar slips after headline CPI turns negative
(Recasts with Singapore dollar reaction to CPI. For earlier
report, double click on )
SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Most Asian currencies fell on
Tuesday, with the Singapore dollar extending its losses after
the city-state reported a year-on-year drop in headline
inflation for the first time in nearly five years in November.
Singapore's all-items consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3
percent in November from a year earlier, the first annual
decline since December 2009.
Economists said the CPI data by itself is unlikely to prompt
the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease monetary
policy at its next policy review in April, given that the
year-on-year fall in CPI was not caused by any sharp drop-off in
demand.
Still, traders said it was enough to dent the Singapore
dollar, which added to its earlier losses and touched a low of
1.3239 versus the U.S. dollar at one point. That
brought it close to an early December trough of 1.3245, the
Singapore dollar's lowest level since November 2010.
In Singapore, headline inflation has declined this year due
to falls in rent following property-cooling measures in recent
years, as well as a drop in the prices of car permits. Both
elements can be heavily impacted by government policies.
The data is not "alarming enough" for the MAS to be forced
into any knee-jerk type of policy reaction, said Vishnu
Varathan, senior economist for Mizuho Bank in Singapore.
However, Varathan added that the chances of the MAS easing
policy in 2015 are increasing. He said his expectation is for an
easing in October - at the second of two semi-annual policy
reviews - by reducing the upward slope of the Singapore
dollar's policy band.
With Singapore's growth likely to remain modest next year
and as weak oil prices bring disinflationary pressures, there is
a minority view among economists that the MAS will ease monetary
policy in April.
At its last policy review in October, the MAS stuck to its
tight monetary policy stance of allowing a "modest and gradual"
appreciation of the Singapore dollar and kept the slope, width
and mid-point of the Singapore dollar's policy band unchanged.
The relative firmness of core inflation, which excludes
changes in car-related and accommodation costs and is the focus
of monetary policy, is one reason why many economists have been
sceptical the MAS would ease policy very soon.
In November, core inflation slipped to a 19-month low of 1.5
percent year-on-year but is still averaging close to 2.0 percent
for the whole of 2014, in line with the central bank's 2-2.5
percent forecast for this year.
CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
Change on the day at 0853 GMT
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 120.13 120.05 -0.07
Sing dlr 1.3230 1.3185 -0.34
Taiwan dlr 31.745 31.586 -0.50
Korean won 1101.20 1096.20 -0.45
Baht 32.89 32.88 -0.02
Peso 44.69 44.62 -0.16
Rupiah 12450.00 12438.00 -0.10
Rupee 63.41 63.26 -0.24
Ringgit 3.4950 3.4870 -0.23
Yuan 6.2260 6.2216 -0.07
Change so far in 2014
Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
Japan yen 120.13 105.28 -12.37
Sing dlr 1.3230 1.2632 -4.52
Taiwan dlr 31.745 29.950 -5.65
Korean won 1101.20 1055.40 -4.16
Baht 32.89 32.86 -0.08
Peso 44.69 44.40 -0.66
Rupiah 12450.00 12160.00 -2.33
Rupee 63.41 61.80 -2.54
Ringgit 3.4950 3.2755 -6.28
Yuan 6.2260 6.0539 -2.76
(Reporting by Masayuki Kitano; Editing by Richard Borsuk)