Yahoo Finance Earnings Beat: Assurant, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
A week ago, Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Assurant beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$2.9b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 18%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Assurant after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Assurant
After the latest results, the four analysts covering Assurant are now predicting revenues of US$11.7b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.3% to US$15.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.13 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$208, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Assurant at US$223 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$182. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 3.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 3.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.8% per year. So although Assurant is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Assurant's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Assurant. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Assurant going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It might also be worth considering whether Assurant's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
