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Crude Oil Price Update – Needs to Hold Major 50% Level at $36.07 to Sustain Upside Momentum

James Hyerczyk

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures finished slightly better on Wednesday after posting a volatile two-sided trade throughout the session. The government’s inventories report, released at 14:30 GMT was actually bullish, but concerns over an extension of the current production cut agreement outweighed that positive news at one point during the session, triggering a near reversal to the downside.

On Wednesday, July WTI Crude Oil finished at $37.29, up $0.48 or +1.30%.

Daily July WTI Crude Oil

US Crude Stocks Drop, Diesel Inventories Surge

U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly fell last week, but diesel inventories surged as fuel demand remains impaired due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Most U.S. states have eased restrictions on movements to halt the spread of COVID-19, but activity is picking up slowly. Crude stockpiles have dropped, but consumption is not keeping up with refining production, boosting inventories.

Crude inventories dropped 2.1 million barrels for the week to May 29 to 532.3 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3 million-barrel rise.

Gasoline supply rose by 2.8 million barrels. Traders were looking for a decline of 300,000 barrels.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 9.9 million barrels to 174.3 million barrels, versus expectations for a 2.7 million-barrel build. Overall, demand for diesel and similar fuels is down 13% from a year-ago period over the last four weeks.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $38.18 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $31.14 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is $54.86 to $17.27. Its retracement zone at $36.07 to $40.50 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. Crude oil is currently straddling the lower or 50% level of this zone.

The new minor range is $31.14 to $38.18. Its 50% level at $34.66 is a potential support level.

Short-Term Outlook

Based on Wednesday’s price action, the short-term direction of July WTI crude oil on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at $36.07.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $36.07 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out $38.18 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with $40.50 the next likely upside target.

Additionally, the price gap at $37.64 to $41.88 is another potential upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $36.07 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a further decline into the minor 50% level at $34.66.

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This article was originally posted on FX Empire