Yahoo Finance Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Investors in Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.0% to close at US$75.68 following the release of its first-quarter results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 17% toUS$1.44 per share. Revenues of US$74,999,000 did beat expectations by 2.9%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Axsome Therapeutics
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Axsome Therapeutics from 16 analysts is for revenues of US$376.2m in 2024. If met, it would imply a huge 50% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 23% to US$4.83. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$376.4m and losses of US$3.88 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Axsome Therapeutics even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a regrettable increase in per-share losses.
The consensus price target held steady at US$124, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Axsome Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$190 and the most bearish at US$97.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Axsome Therapeutics'historical trends, as the 72% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 87% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that Axsome Therapeutics is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Axsome Therapeutics. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Axsome Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Axsome Therapeutics .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
