U.S. Stocks Near Two-Week High as Crude Gains Amid Syria Tension

(Bloomberg) -- Stocks recovered early losses amid signs that Russia’s response to Turkey’s downing of a warplane near its border with Syria won’t include the military. The prospect of lingering regional tension ignited gains in oil and fueled demand for gold as a haven investment.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed up 0.1 percent near its highest level since Nov. 6 after Russian President Vladimir Putin stopped short of threatening a military response to the incident. European stocks slipped as the first clash of foreign powers embroiled in the Syrian civil war sparked concern tensions will escalate. Gold gained for the first time in three sessions and Treasuries held gains, while the dollar retreated. Copper rebounded.

Financial-market moves in response to the downed warplane were contained as political analysts in Russia and Europe said a major escalation seems unlikely given the risks associated with any conflict between Russia and a NATO member. The incident comes as Brussels remains on the highest-level terror alert amid what officials have called credible terrorist threats and after the U.S. State Department issued a global alert for Americans.

“When you see this type of uncertainty happening, it reinforces looking at the U.S. as a safe haven,” said Tom Anderson, who helps oversee about $8 billion as chief investment officer at Boston Private Wealth. “The U.S. economy is in very solid shape. We’re pretty positive on equities as a result. But there’s certain to be noise and volatility around those events.”

The geopolitical tensions somewhat overshadowed U.S. data Tuesday that indicated the economy expanded at a faster pace in the third quarter than previously reported, fueling bets that the Federal Reserve will raise key interest rates next month. Treasuries pared gains as the odds for an increase at the Fed’s December meeting rose to 74 percent.

“The market is clearly reacting to geopolitical tensions today,” said Jeff Mortimer, the Boston-based director of investment strategy for BNY Mellon Wealth Management, which oversees more than $183 billion. “Those things weigh on market sentiment a bit and there was a negative tone. Moves may be more exaggerated on lower volume this week.”

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose to 2,089.14 by 4 p.m. in New York, after falling as much as 0.8 percent earlier in the session. The index is coming off its best week of 2015 and has rallied 12 percent from its August low, though gains have stalled about 2 percent from the May record.

Energy producers surged 2.2 percent as crude oil jumped as much as 4.1 percent in New York. Transportation and airline stocks led declines, with the Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index sinking 2.7 percent. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index climbed 1.2 percent.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.2 percent Tuesday, paring a loss of as much as 2 percent. Travel and leisure-associated shares led declines, sliding 2.3 percent. Ryanair Holdings Plc and IAG SA, the parent of British Airways, fell more than 3.5 percent, while hotel operator Accor SA lost 5.5 percent. Volkswagen AG was one of the few companies rising in Europe, up 4.9 percent after it won approval to repair most of its rigged European diesel engines.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent as Japanese stocks rose amid their first day of trading this week.

Emerging Markets

MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index fell for a second day, losing 0.2 percent. Russia’s Micex Index slumped 3.1 percent for its biggest one-day plunge since March, while the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index slid 4.4 percent. The Turkish lira weakened 1 percent, while the ruble erased losses versus the dollar, eventually gaining 0.6 percent.

Emerging markets have borne the brunt of a retreat this year as rising political risk and a deepening slowdown in China lessened the appeal of developing-nation assets while the U.S. moves closer to raising rates. Putin said the downing of the warplane would have “very serious consequences” for ties with Turkey, which claimed it only fired after the pilots ignored repeated warnings about violating its airspace.

“The incident just highlights how complex the situation across Turkey’s border is,” Simon Quijano-Evans, chief emerging- markets strategist at Commerzbank AG in London, said by e-mail. “There’s no way either Turkey or Russia can afford to get into any sort of conflict with one another.”

The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.2 percent, recovering from a drop of as much as 1.3 percent, after people with familiar with the matter said China had canceled a rule requiring brokerages to hold daily net long positions in their proprietary trading accounts.

Currencies

Japan’s currency, which is also regarded as a haven, climbed against most of its major peers following the reports from Turkey’s military. The yen appreciated 0.2 percent Tuesday to 122.54 per dollar, after touching 122.31, its strongest level since Nov. 16.

The warplane incident “is likely to make investors a little bit cautious at least until we have a little more clarity and some political response,” said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, fell 0.3 percent after a two-day gain of 0.5 percent. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since September 2014, injecting an element of doubt into the picture of a robust U.S. economy.

Bonds

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were little changed at 2.24 percent, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. Rates on Germany’s two-year notes dropped below minus 0.4 percent for the first time, while yields on similar-maturity Austrian, Belgian and Finnish securities slipped to record lows.

“What we’re basically seeing is a bit of a flight-to- quality move,” said Donald Ellenberger, who oversees $10 billion as head of multi sector strategies at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. “If things start to escalate, it’s possible the market could continue to rally, and, it might even, at some point, impact whether the Fed decides to hike in December.”

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.8 percent from near its lowest level since 1999 amid the gains in metals and crude oil. West Texas Intermediate oil futures settled up 2.7 percent at $42.87 a barrel, while Brent gained 2.9 percent to $46.12.

Also supporting prices, Saudi Arabia reiterated that it will work with OPEC and other producers to stabilize global crude markets. The kingdom is the biggest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which will meet Dec. 4.

Nickel rebounded from at its lowest level in more than a decade amid a broader recovery in metals on speculation the market had been oversold during the biggest tumble in prices since the global financial crisis. Copper for three-month delivery rose 2.6 percent to $4,608 a metric ton in London, after closing at its lowest level since May 2009 Monday.

Gold for immediate delivery added 0.6 percent to $1,075.50 an ounce, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. Prices fell to $1,064.55 on Nov. 18, the lowest level since February 2010, as the prospect of a Fed rate hike as soon as December diminished the investment appeal of the precious metal.

--With assistance from Stephen Kirkland, Cecile Vannucci, Lucy Meakin and Emma O'Brien.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeremy Herron in New York at jherron8@bloomberg.net; Anna-Louise Jackson in New York at ajackson36@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Emma O'Brien at eobrien6@bloomberg.net Jeremy Herron