Yahoo Finance Analysts Are Updating Their Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results
Last week, you might have seen that Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to US$441 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$6.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$3.22 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Mastercard is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Mastercard
After the latest results, the 34 analysts covering Mastercard are now predicting revenues of US$27.8b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 11% to US$14.20. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$28.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.32 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$513. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mastercard, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$615 and the most bearish at US$412 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Mastercard'shistorical trends, as the 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that Mastercard is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Mastercard going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Mastercard you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
