Yahoo Finance The Amplitude, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMPL) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Amplitude, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMPL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.3% to US$9.12 in the week after its latest quarterly results. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of US$73m were in line with expectations,Amplitude lost US$0.18 a share in the process. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Amplitude
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Amplitude are now predicting revenues of US$294.1m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 3.5% to US$0.68 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$293.1m and losses of US$0.59 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Amplitude even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a notable increase in per-share losses.
The consensus price target held steady at US$11.56, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Amplitude, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$14.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Amplitude's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 28% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Amplitude.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Amplitude. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Amplitude's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.56, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Amplitude. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Amplitude analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Amplitude that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
