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Advance Auto Parts' (NYSE:AAP) Dividend Will Be $0.25

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.25 per share on the 26th of July. The dividend yield is 1.4% based on this payment, which is a little bit low compared to the other companies in the industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Advance Auto Parts

Advance Auto Parts' Payment Has Solid Earnings Coverage

Even a low dividend yield can be attractive if it is sustained for years on end. Based on the last payment, the company wasn't making enough to cover what it was paying to shareholders. Without profits and cash flows increasing, it would be difficult for the company to continue paying the dividend at this level.

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Analysts expect a massive rise in earnings per share in the next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 29%, which would make us comfortable with the dividend's sustainability, despite the levels currently being elevated.

historic-dividend
historic-dividend

Dividend Volatility

The company has a long dividend track record, but it doesn't look great with cuts in the past. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $0.24 in 2014 to the most recent total annual payment of $1.00. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% a year over that time. Dividends have grown rapidly over this time, but with cuts in the past we are not certain that this stock will be a reliable source of income in the future.

Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share is growing. Over the past five years, it looks as though Advance Auto Parts' EPS has declined at around 39% a year. This steep decline can indicate that the business is going through a tough time, which could constrain its ability to pay a larger dividend each year in the future. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this becomes a long term trend.

Advance Auto Parts' Dividend Doesn't Look Great

Overall, this isn't a great candidate as an income investment, even though the dividend was stable this year. The company seems to be stretching itself a bit to make such big payments, but it doesn't appear they can be consistent over time. We don't think that this is a great candidate to be an income stock.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. To that end, Advance Auto Parts has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about. Is Advance Auto Parts not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.