Singapore’s tourist arrivals to slow down to 6% in 2013

Blame it on these 3 possible culprits.

According to UOB Kay Hian, visitor arrivals to Singapore grew at a steady pace in 2012 despite some slowdown in corporate travel, with arrivals up 11% yoy in 1H12. It expects visitor arrivals to comfortably meet its full-year 2012 growth forecast of 8%. For 2013, UOB Kay Hian expects visitor arrivals to continue on its growth track albeit at a slower pace of 6%.

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Key growth drivers ahead include the opening of River Safari at Mandai, Asia’s first river-themed wildlife park, and other attractions (SEA Aquarium and Marine Life Park in RWS), while risks to our assumptions are slower business travel growth, increased competition from neighbouring countries and a strong Singapore dollar.

Visitor arrivals from the five core markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Australia and India) saw strong double-digit growth (13%) in 1H12. The strong growth was backed by the growing prominence of low-cost carriers (LCC) combined with better affluence in these countries.

The core markets accounted for about 55% of total arrivals in 1H12, up from 50% in 2005. The proportion is expected to increase by 1-2ppt in the next three years as the growing LCC market opens up new routes, making intra-regional travel more affordable and easier. Other key growth markets to watch out for include Taiwan (+27% yoy), Japan (+21% yoy) and Vietnam (+17% yoy).

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