Factbox - How Europe's previous bank test scenarios stacked up
LONDON (Reuters) - The "stress test" scenarios to be unveiled by the European Banking Authority (EBA) on Tuesday mark the third time Europe has set the likely and worst-case scenarios its biggest banks should prepare themselves for.
The projections laid down in 2010 stood the test of time well, with just one country of the European Union's 27 members at that time - Greece - posting actual economic growth that was worse than the two-year cumulative worst-case scenario applied by the stress tests. Eight countries recorded worse unemployment than predicted in that year's stress test, though.
The 2011 stress test, designed at the height of the euro zone crisis, had a far greater margin of error. The actual 2012 economic growth of 18 EU countries was worse than the "adverse case" laid down for that year in the 2011 test, and unemployment figures were worse than the adverse case for eight countries.
A full breakdown of the key metrics of the 2010 and 2011 stress tests, on a country-by-country basis, is below. The source for the predictions is EBA publications, while actual outcomes are sourced from Eurostat.
2010 stress test
2010 GDP
Scenario
Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse
exceeded?
Austria 1.1 -0.1 1.8 NO
Belgium 0.6 -0.3 2.3 NO
Cyprus 0.1 -0.7 1.3 NO
Finland 0.9 -0.1 3.4 NO
France 1.2 0.7 1.7 NO
Germany 1.2 0.2 4 NO
Greece -4.1 -4.6 -4.9 YES
Ireland -1.4 -2.1 -1.1 NO
Italy 0.7 -0.3 1.7 NO
Luxembourg 1.1 -0.1 3.1 NO
Malta 0.7 -0.8 4.1 NO
Netherlands 0.9 0 1.5 NO
Portugal 0.5 -0.3 1.9 NO
Slovakia 1.9 0.8 4.4 NO
Slovenia 1.3 0.7 1.3 NO
Spain -0.6 -1.4 -0.2 NO
Euro area 0.7 -0.2 2 NO
Bulgaria 0.4 -0.7 0.4 NO
Czech 1.4 0.9 2.5 NO
Republic
Denmark 1.5 0.8 1.4 NO
Estonia 1 -0.1 2.6 NO
Hungary 0.9 -0.2 1.1 NO
Latvia -3.3 -4.2 -1.3 NO
Lithuania 0.5 -0.9 1.6 NO
Poland 2.9 2.1 3.9 NO
Romania 0 -1.8 -1.1 NO
Sweden 1.4 0.9 6.6 NO
UK 0.6 -0.2 1.7 NO
2010 Unemployment
Scenario
Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse
exceeded?
Austria 6 6.1 4.4 NO
Belgium 9.9 9.1 8.3 NO
Cyprus 6.6 6.7 6.3 NO
Finland 10.2 10.4 8.4 NO
France 10.2 10.2 9.3 NO
Germany 9.2 9.2 7.1 NO
Greece 11.7 11.8 12.6 YES
Ireland 14 14.1 13.9 NO
Italy 8.7 8.8 8.4 NO
Luxembourg 7.3 7.3 4.6 NO
Malta 7.4 7.6 6.9 NO
Netherlands 5.4 5.5 4.5 NO
Portugal 11.1 11.3 12 YES
Slovakia 12.8 12.9 14.5 YES
Slovenia 8.3 8.5 7.3 NO
Spain 20 20.3 20.1 NO
Euro area 10.7 10.8 10.1 NO
Bulgaria 8.8 9.2 10.3 YES
Czech 8.1 8.6 7.3 NO
Republic
Denmark 5.8 6 7.5 YES
Estonia 16 16.4 16.7 YES
Hungary 11.8 12.6 11.2 NO
Latvia 20.4 20.7 19.5 NO
Lithuania 17.1 17.6 17.8 YES
Poland 10.4 10.7 9.7 NO
Romania 8.1 8.5 7.3 NO
Sweden 10.2 10.2 8.6 NO
UK 8.7 9.1 7.8 NO
2011 GDP
Scenario
Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse
exceeded
Austria 1.5 -1.2 2.8 NO
Belgium 1.5 -0.6 1.8 NO
Cyprus 1.3 -0.1 0.4 NO
Finland 1.6 -0.6 2.8 NO
France 1.5 -0.1 2 NO
Germany 1.7 -0.6 3.3 NO
Greece -2.6 -4.3 -7.1 YES
Ireland 2.6 1 2.2 NO
Italy 1.4 -0.3 0.4 NO
Luxembourg 1.8 -0.8 1.9 NO
Malta 1.6 -1.2 1.6 NO
Netherlands 1.6 -1 0.9 NO
Portugal 0.2 -2.3 -1.3 NO
Slovakia 2.6 -0.6 3 NO
Slovenia 2 0.6 0.7 NO
Spain 1 -1.2 0.1 NO
Bulgaria 4 2.8 1.8 NO
Czech 1.8 0.6 1.8 NO
Republic
Denmark 1.8 0.2 1.1 NO
Estonia 4 3 9.6 NO
Hungary 3.2 1.6 1.6 NO
Latvia 3.9 2.5 5.3 NO
Lithuania 3.1 2.4 6 NO
Poland 2.4 0.5 4.5 NO
Romania 3.6 2.1 2.3 NO
Sweden 2.1 0.9 2.9 NO
UK 1.9 0.1 1.1 NO
2011 Unemployment
Scenario
Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse
exceeded?
Austria 5.7 6.1 4.2 NO
Belgium 10.3 11.1 7.2 NO
Cyprus 6.7 7.3 7.9 YES
Finland 9.9 11.4 7.8 NO
France 10 10.5 9.2 NO
Germany 9.3 9.7 5.9 NO
Greece 14.1 14.8 17.7 YES
Ireland 13.2 13.7 14.7 YES
Italy 8.7 9.3 8.4 NO
Luxembourg 7.7 7.7 4.8 NO
Malta 7.3 8.2 6.5 NO
Netherlands 6 7 4.4 NO
Portugal 11.9 12.8 12.9 YES
Slovakia 12.6 13.2 13.7 YES
Slovenia 8.5 9.1 8.2 NO
Spain 20.5 21.6 21.7 YES
Bulgaria 8 8.4 11.3 YES
Czech 8.5 9.6 6.7 NO
Republic
Denmark 5.6 6.3 7.6 YES
Estonia 14.5 14.8 12.3 NO
Hungary 11.9 13.2 10.9 NO
Latvia 18.2 18.8 16.2 NO
Lithuania 15.9 16.3 15.4 NO
Poland 11.5 12.2 9.7 NO
Romania 8.8 9.2 7.4 NO
Sweden 10.1 10.3 7.8 NO
UK 8 8.8 8 NO
2011 stress test
2011 GDP
scenario
Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse
exceeded?
Austria 1.7 -0.7 2.8 NO
Belgium 1.8 0 1.8 NO
Cyprus 1.5 -0.6 0.4 NO
Finland 2.9 -0.5 2.8 NO
France 1.6 0.4 2 NO
Germany 2.2 -0.9 3.3 NO
Greece -3 -4 -7.1 YES
Ireland 0.9 -1.6 2.2 NO
Italy 1.1 0.1 0.4 NO
Luxembourg 2.8 0.2 1.9 NO
Malta 2 -3.1 1.6 NO
Netherlands 1.5 -0.7 0.9 NO
Portugal -1 -3 -1.3 NO
Slovakia 3 0.4 3 NO
Slovenia 1.9 0.8 0.7 YES
Spain 0.7 -1 0.1 NO
Bulgaria 2.6 1.1 1.8 NO
Czech 2.3 -0.3 1.8 NO
Republic
Denmark 1.9 0.4 1.1 NO
Estonia 4.4 1.8 9.6 NO
Hungary 2.8 1.9 1.6 YES
Latvia 3.3 1.6 5.3 NO
Lithuania 2.8 0.8 6 NO
Poland 3.9 3 4.5 NO
Romania 1.5 0 2.3 NO
Sweden 3.3 0.4 2.9 NO
UK 2.2 -0.7 1.1 NO
2011 Unemployment
scenario
Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse
exceeded?
Austria 4.2 4.5 4.2 NO
Belgium 8.8 9 7.2 NO
Cyprus 6.6 6.9 7.9 YES
Finland 7.8 8.3 7.8 NO
France 9.5 9.6 9.2 NO
Germany 6.7 6.8 5.9 NO
Greece 15 15.2 17.7 YES
Ireland 13.4 14.9 14.7 NO
Italy 8.3 8.6 8.4 NO
Luxembourg 5.6 5.6 4.8 NO
Malta 6.6 7.4 6.5 NO
Netherlands 4.4 4.9 4.4 NO
Portugal 11.1 11.6 12.9 YES
Slovakia 14.2 14.4 13.7 NO
Slovenia 7.2 7.7 8.2 YES
Spain 20.2 21.3 21.7 YES
Bulgaria 9.1 9.2 11.3 YES
Czech 7 7.8 6.7 NO
Republic
Denmark 6.3 7.2 7.6 YES
Estonia 1.1 15.4 12.3 NO
Hungary 11 11.1 10.9 NO
Latvia 17.7 18.3 16.2 NO
Lithuania 16.9 17.3 15.4 NO
Poland 9.2 9.4 9.7 YES
Romania 7.4 7.5 7.4 NO
Sweden 8 8.8 7.8 NO
UK 7.9 9 8 NO
2012 GDP
scenario
Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse
exceeded?
Austria 2.1 -0.6 0.9 NO
Belgium 2 -0.2 -0.1 NO
Cyprus 2.2 0.6 -2.4 YES
Finland 2.3 0.6 -1 YES
France 1.8 0.2 0 YES
Germany 2 0.6 0.7 NO
Greece 11 -1.2 -7 YES
Ireland 1.9 0.3 0.2 YES
Italy 1.4 -1 -2.4 YES
Luxembourg 3.2 0.9 -0.2 YES
Malta 2.2 0.5 0.6 NO
Netherlands 1.7 -0.8 -1.2 YES
Portugal 0.8 -2.6 -3.2 YES
Slovakia 3.9 1.3 1.8 NO
Slovenia 2.6 1 -2.5 YES
Spain 1.7 -1.1 -1.6 YES
Bulgaria 3.8 1.5 0.6 YES
Czech 3.1 1.5 -1 YES
Republic
Denmark 1.8 -0.2 -0.4 YES
Estonia 3.5 -0.9 3.9 NO
Hungary 3.2 1.2 -1.7 YES
Latvia 4 0.5 5.2 NO
Lithuania 3.2 -1.4 3.7 NO
Poland 4.2 2.6 2 YES
Romania 3.8 2.1 0.6 YES
Sweden 2.3 -1.2 0.9 NO
UK 2.5 0.9 0.3 YES
2012 Unemployment
scenario
Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse
exceeded?
Austria 4 4.8 4.3 NO
Belgium 8.7 9.8 7.6 NO
Cyprus 5.9 7.1 11.9 YES
Finland 7.2 8.1 7.7 NO
France 9.2 9.8 9.8 NO
Germany 6.3 6.9 5.5 NO
Greece 15.2 16.3 24.3 YES
Ireland 12.7 15.8 14.7 NO
Italy 8.2 9.2 10.7 YES
Luxembourg 5.6 5.7 5.1 NO
Malta 6.5 8.8 6.4 NO
Netherlands 4.3 5.9 5.3 NO
Portugal 11.2 12.9 15.9 YES
Slovakia 13.4 14.3 14 NO
Slovenia 6.6 7.7 8.9 YES
Spain 19.2 22.4 25 YES
Bulgaria 8 8.9 12.3 YES
Czech 6.7 8.4 7 NO
Republic
Denmark 5.8 8.3 7.5 NO
Estonia 13.6 15 10 NO
Hungary 10.3 10.9 10.9 NO
Latvia 16.2 18.8 15 NO
Lithuania 15.1 17.2 13.4 NO
Poland 8.5 9.8 10.1 YES
Romania 7 7.4 7 NO
Sweden 7.5 10.1 8 NO
UK 7.8 10.6 7.9 NO
(Reporting by Laura Noonan; Editing by Mark Potter)