EM ASIA FX-Asia FX down in July as U.S. GDP adds to Fed rate hike views
* Won leads Asia FX monthly losses
* Baht to suffer worst month in 14 years
* Taiwan dollar to see monthly slide, Q2 growth 3-year low
(Adds text, updates prices)
By Jongwoo Cheon
SINGAPORE, July 31 (Reuters) - Most emerging Asian
currencies eased on Friday, poised for monthly losses in July as
faster U.S. economic growth in the second quarter boosted
expectations the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates as
soon as September.
The Malaysian ringgit stayed near a 17-year trough
with bond prices lower as growing political fallout linked to
Prime Minister Najib Razak and the debt-ridden state fund 1MDB
hurt sentiment.
Indonesia's rupiah fell to a fresh low since August
1998 on month-end dollar demand from importers. Thailand's baht
hit a six-year low and is set for its worst month in 14
years as a sluggish economy continued to drive foreign investors
out of the country.
U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter on
solid consumer spending. The expansion fell short of forecast
but indicated a steady momentum that could pave the way for the
Fed to raise interest rates this year.
By contrast, Asian economies are slowing down. Taiwan's
economic growth slowed more sharply than expected to a
three-year low in the second quarter, hurt by a collapse in
exports.
The sluggish regional economic outlook, along with views of
higher U.S. borrowing costs, are expected to keep denting
emerging Asian currencies, analysts said.
"Markets have priced in a higher expectation of a September
rate hike after the U.S. growth data, but the probability is
still below 40 percent," said Sean Yokota, head of Asia strategy
for Scandinavian bank SEB in Singapore.
"In any case, I think Asian FX will weaken further. Data in
the U.S. is getting better whereas data in Asia continues to
disappoint, led by China. Asians will suffer until the export
cycle picks up, which we aren't seeing yet."
WON, BAHT LEAD JULY LOSSES
Emerging Asian currencies were set to again report monthly
losses in July, led by the South Korean won and the
baht.
The won has slid 4.6 percent against the dollar throughout
this month, which would be the largest monthly loss since
September 2011, Thomson Reuters data showed. A slowdown in
Asia's fourth-largest economy spurred capital outflows.
The baht has lost 3.9 percent so far this month, which would
be the biggest monthly depreciation since March 2001, according
to Thomson Reuters data.
Thailand's top government officials including a deputy prime
minister expressed their preference for a weaker currency to a
rate cut to shore up the economy.
That caused some foreign investors to sell local bonds,
which they had bought before on expectations of rising bond
prices.
The ringgit has fallen 1.1 percent so far in July as the
central bank was spotted intervening to prop up the
worst-performing Asian currency hit by growing political
tensions.
Malaysia's international reserves lost $5 billion in the
first half of the month, central bank data showed, as the
authorities stepped up efforts to support the currency after a
graft scandal.
"The key concern is that FX reserves continue to decline. At
some point BNM will no longer be able to continue providing
support to the currency," said Khoon Goh, senior FX strategist
for ANZ in Singapore, referring to Bank Negara Malaysia.
A Wall Street Journal report earlier this month said that
investigators in the 1MDB probe had traced $700 million in funds
deposited into bank accounts belonging to the prime minister.
Reuters has not verified the report.
The Singapore dollar has lost 1.9 percent so far
this month as the city-state's economy unexpectedly shrank in
the second quarter. Taiwan's dollar has slid 1.5
percent as foreign investors were net sellers in its stock
market for a second consecutive month on the sluggish economy.
The Philippine peso has shed 1.2 percent
throughout July, while the rupiah has fallen 1.1 percent.
"The Fed's eventual lift-off may translate into an 'our
lift-off, your problem' scenario for emerging markets in an
environment of weak growth and still accommodative central
banks," said Emmanuel Ng, a foreign exchange strategist with
OCBC Bank, in a client note.
CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
Change on the day at 0515 GMT
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 123.95 124.14 +0.15
Sing dlr 1.3730 1.3752 +0.16
Taiwan dlr 31.542 31.601 +0.19
Korean won 1168.75 1168.40 -0.03
Baht 35.14 34.94 -0.57
Peso 45.65 45.62 -0.07
Rupiah 13483.00 13465.00 -0.13
Rupee 64.03 64.04 +0.02
Ringgit 3.8170 3.8160 -0.03
Yuan 6.2098 6.2096 -0.00
Change so far in 2015
Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
Japan yen 123.95 119.66 -3.47
Sing dlr 1.3730 1.3260 -3.42
Taiwan dlr 31.542 31.718 +0.56
Korean won 1168.75 1099.30 -5.94
Baht 35.14 32.90 -6.37
Peso 45.65 44.72 -2.04
Rupiah 13483.00 12380.00 -8.18
Rupee 64.03 63.03 -1.56
Ringgit 3.8170 3.4965 -8.40
Yuan 6.2098 6.2040 -0.09
(Additional reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai in BANGKOK;
Editing by Jacqueline Wong)