Does Horace Mann Educators Corporation's (NYSE:HMN) Weak Fundamentals Mean That The Stock Could Move In The Opposite Direction?
Most readers would already know that Horace Mann Educators' (NYSE:HMN) stock increased by 8.5% over the past three months. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak financials, as long-term fundamentals ultimately dictate market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Horace Mann Educators' ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
View our latest analysis for Horace Mann Educators
How Is ROE Calculated?
ROE can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Horace Mann Educators is:
6.7% = US$82m ÷ US$1.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.07 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Horace Mann Educators' Earnings Growth And 6.7% ROE
When you first look at it, Horace Mann Educators' ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 13% either. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 29% seen by Horace Mann Educators over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.
However, when we compared Horace Mann Educators' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 10% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for HMN? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
Is Horace Mann Educators Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
Horace Mann Educators' declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 68% (or a retention ratio of 32%). The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run.
In addition, Horace Mann Educators has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 38% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 10% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.
Conclusion
On the whole, Horace Mann Educators' performance is quite a big let-down. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.