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International elections will be a 'global volatility event'

As the 2024 presidential election heats up, Nuveen CIO Saira Malik joins Catalysts to discuss how Thursday's debate will impact markets (^DJI,^GSPC, ^IXIC).

Malik believes the debate won't impact markets as much as second quarter earnings and economic data. "Markets don't like uncertainty. What is certain is we do generally know who our two candidates should be. In an election year, good news and bad news. Good news is markets tend to go up about 11%. We've already experienced that. Good news. Bad news is volatility tends to go up too. That's what I expect to happen in the second half of the year," she explains.

She emphasizes that the US isn't the only country having a major election: "There are 77 countries going to the polls this year. That's 60% of GDP. So this will be a global volatility event."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts.

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This post was written by Melanie Riehl

Video transcript

Since you mentioned the election, we've got the debate coming up on Thursday.

I want to get a sense from you.

How much you think that could be a driver of the market's ability to price in what the outcome could potentially be on November 5th?

Do you think that events like the upcoming debate are going to impact the market's view?

I don't think a specific debate will impact the markets view as much as what are earnings doing for the second quarter.

What is the next economic and inflationary data point?

You know, markets don't like uncertainty.

What is certain is we do generally know who our two candidates should be um in, in an election year.

Good news and bad news.

Good news is, markets tend to go up about 11%.

We've already experienced that.

Good news.

Bad news is volatility tends to go up too.

That's what expect to happen in the second half of the year.

And remember this isn't just a US election year.

There are 77 countries going to the polls this year, that's 60% of GDP.

So this will be a global volatility event and we're already seeing that in places like South Africa, India, France and all these other areas of the world that are already experiencing elections and seeing some volatility.

But just one debate later this week, I think that's going to have less of an impact than P ce will on Friday.

Sarah Mallick.

Great to have you here, especially in the studio.

Thanks so much for taking the time to join us here at the top of the show.

Naveen is a chief investment officer.

Thanks so much, Sarah.

Thank you.