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Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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209.41+1.81 (+0.87%)
At close: 1:00PM EST
210.99 +1.58 (+0.75%)
After hours: 04:59PM EST
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  • P
    Put_upst
    buy buy buy still $300!!!! next earning day .. we will see $600
  • l
    linda
    The trend is so clear obviously now? Yes
  • M
    Michael
    $1000 Stock
  • A
    Adrian
    green today 😊
  • S
    Sweetpia
    I bought back today
  • N
    Nicholas
    Low rates and no stimulus. People will be flocking to UPST and LC for credit—I added last night. Never doubt a group of Google founders, especially not David.
  • l
    linda
    One good news will bring this to $300
  • D
    DStateGovernor
    I just bought another 1000 shares around 200. It will go right back up.
  • H
    Holy Smokas
    we gonna double our money from here by feb
  • S
    Sweetpia
    I think buying tmr
  • T
    Tony
    want to know who signs a loan with an APR of 18%? the least desirable borrowers who tend to default and make late payments. a quote directly from Upstarts website: "The average 3-year loan offered across all lenders using the Upstart platform will have an APR of 18.04%”.
  • l
    linda
    New Covid variant BS creating the greatest buying opportunity on many stocks today. Great pullback is coming
  • B
    Bob
    Is this the bottom with today's red market and upst holding up this well?
  • D
    DStateGovernor
    I am holding because it will rise to 400 again.
  • D
    Dragon
    They will be coming in big numbers this is real lots of customers!
  • M
    Michael
    UPST claiming again.
  • N
    Nicklacric
    Floor is there no risk
  • b
    bill
    No idea what they do, but grabbed 800 yesterday at $198. Glta.
  • A
    AJ111
    Ok... so UPST has been cut by almost half from its all time high of $401+/shr - all because the company guided 200% growth rate and the street (wall street that is) expected more in spite of the same so called analysts (the likes of Matt Schindler of B of A and John Hachte of Jefferies) had estimates that were beaten by miles. First Lets consider the Pattern of how the company has guided its EBITDA vs. what actually was delivered, and then to come up with a fair value for the stock based on P/E and earnings growth rate.

    Q4 2020 guidance on Q1 2021:
    -------------- Q1 2021 EBITDA $14.6 to $15.3 million --> Actual delivered $21M (40% above guidance)
    -------------- Q1 2021 Revenue: $112-$118M --> Actual delivered $121M (5.2% above guidance)

    Q1 guidance on Q2 2021:
    ------------- Q2 EBITDA $23-$27M --> Actual delivered in Q2: $59.5M (138% above guidance)
    ------------- Q2 Revenue: $150 to $160 million - Actual delivered: $194M (25% above guidance)

    Q2 guidance on Q3 2021:
    ------------- Q3 EBITDA $30-$34M --> Actual delivered in Q3: $59.1M (84% above guidance)
    ------------- Q3 Revenue $215M--> Actual delivered in Q3: $228M (6% above guidance)

    Q3 guidance on Q4 2021:
    ------------- Q4 EBITDA $51-$53M --> Actual to be delivered in Q4...? (conservatively 20% above guidance based on past surprised upside % delivered: $64M) - not to mention it is holiday season and people after being a year of locked up
    ------------- Q4 Revenue$255-$265M --> Actual to be delivered in Q4...? (conservatively 5% above guidance Appx. $267M-$270M ).

    Hence Total earnings for 2021: $203M

    Now lets plug in some number to come up with current P/E and PEG:

    P/E = Current market cap of $18B (stock price of about $226) / $203 = 89

    Earnings growth rate (conservatively): 204. Why or actually how come up with this number? And this is the MOST conservative approach in figuring out the earnings growth rate for a young (in fact infant) hyper growth company with no prior much public records.

    I am taking Q1 earnings and subtract it from Q4 and divide it by Q1 earnings thus giving me the % growth from the beginning of the year through end of the year. Hence: $64M Q4 earnings - $21M Q1 earnings = $43M/$21 Q1 = 204%

    PEG = P/E divided by Earnings growth rate = 89 / 204 = 0.43

    PEG < 1 --> stock is undervalued
    PEG = 1 --> stock is at fair value
    PEG > 1 --> stock is overvalued.

    Hence UPST at $18B market cap (stock price of 226) is undervalued.

    In order for it to be at fair value, P/E must become 204. And for this to happen market cap must become $41B which means a fair value for UPST at this time is about $425 based on 97.6 million outstanding shares.

    Now, the question becomes at what point does market realize this? Well... the Matt Schindlers (of B of A) and John Hachte of Jefferies who currently have a sell on the stockand play with BILLIONS of Other People's money already know about this. I do not want to speculate as what and how these guys operate but suffice to say they do not have the financial well being of retail investors in their mind!

    Tomorrow is November options expiry date and it was expected for today and tomorrow to be street fights between gangs of the street (wall street that is). Hence lots of volatility to the downside.

    Sentiments will continue to be in negative territory till probably beginning of Q1 2022 and after Q4 has come to a close. At that time the likes of Mr. Schinlders of B of A and John Hachte s of Jefferies will start the upward trend. How much more downside we have...? A great question one that I for one would not know, but can say that anything under $425/shr is a STRONG BUY! And certainly anything under $300 is ridiculously cheap (let alone now that we are in the $220 range and maybe heading lower too)! But if you are NOT on margin, you should not pay any attention to this stock what so ever till mid January. By end of March this stock will be well into $420+/shr. (and yes you can mark this post also and I will happily declare being an idiot if the stock is not in the $400/shr range.

    Happy Holidays everyone,
  • B
    Benjo
    Big shock is coming. Margin calls !