Resurging COVID infections in many major oil-consuming markets, including the United States, Europe, and Southeast Asia, could stagnate the recovery in road fuel consumption globally in the coming weeks
The summer rebound in global fuel demand could be turning into a slowdown, as analysts expect gasoline consumption to taper off due to resurgent coronavirus cases and structural changes in commuting patterns. Gasoline demand in the United States, the world's top oil consumer, has nearly recovered to 2019 levels following the plunge in travel and business activity during the worst of the pandemic in 2020. Gasoline demand in the United States and Europe is hitting a plateau, and those two regions account for roughly a third of global petroleum consumption, making them key to the rebound in oil and refining markets.
“We will continue to assume Iranian oil supply at 3MMbbls/d by the end of this year, however, will revisit this forecast once talks resume.”