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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

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  • D
    David
    A must read:

    The Need

    At the start of 2020, Filip Dubovsky was working for AstraZeneca when he heard about another pharmaceutical company called Novavax, which was developing a particularly inventive way of creating a flu vaccine.

    The company's scientists had discovered a powerful adjuvant called Matrix-M, which comes from the inner bark of the Chilean soapbark tree, Quillaja saponaria. In a Phase III trial – usually the final stage of initial testing, involving large numbers of people – it not only yielded a stronger antibody response than existing influenza shots, but also provided cross-protection against multiple strains of flu.

    Dubovsky was intrigued, so much so that by June 2020 he had joined Novavax as their chief medical officer, working on the company's Covid-19 vaccine. This recently became the first of the second generation jabs to hit the market, initially receiving emergency authorisation in Indonesia and the Philippines. Dubovsky felt that the technology – which combines the adjuvant Matrix-M with a more traditional protein-based jab – was always going to take longer to develop than the messenger RNA (mRNA) and adenovirus methods, which comprised the first wave of Covid-19 vaccines. However, he says that being slightly later to the party may have given Novavax certain advantages.

    Transporting Covid-19 vaccines to more remote parts of the world can be challenging (Credit: Getty Images)
    Transporting Covid-19 vaccines to more remote parts of the world can be challenging (Credit: Getty Images)

    While Novavax's clinical trials were underway, new variants of Covid-19 began to emerge, enabling them to prove that their vaccine was still effective against a range of different strains. So far, its data shows that their vaccine is 93% effective against the Alpha and Beta variants, although no efficacy has been published for the dominant Delta strain and it is still too early to say if it will be effective against Omicron.

    Dubovsky says that, as with Novavax's flu vaccine, the use of the adjuvant means the vaccine stimulates the production of neutralising antibodies that are higher quality.

    "It's not just how high your antibodies go, but how good they are," Dubovsky explains. "We have data from early clinical studies showing that our vaccine was able to generate neutralising antibodies that are very high level. So these aren't just antibodies that can recognise the spike protein, but they can actually stop the virus from spreading."

    Dubovsky hopes that their new adjuvant may help to prevent so-called "breakthrough infections", whereby fully vaccinated individuals can become infected.

    Breakthrough infections remain a major ongoing problem, particularly in the wake of the Delta variant, with studies estimating that breakthrough infection rates can range from 1 in 100 to 1 in 5,000, depending on the population. (Since the interview with Dubovsky, the heavily mutated Omicron variant has also emerged, which early signs suggest may also lead to a significantly higher rate of breakthrough infections.)

    Generating more, and better quality antibodies, is one of the main ways in which second generation vaccines are hoping to stand out, both as a potential booster option in the US and Europe, but also as a primary vaccine in many parts of the world. Brian Ward, medical officer at the Canadian biotech Medicago, told the BBC that they are preparing to release the data from their Phase III clinical trial, and that they intend to apply for regulatory approval for their vaccine within weeks. Medicago claim that they can produce far higher antibody titers (a measure of antibody concentration) than current jabs.

    "The mRNA vaccines [produce antibody titres that] are somewhere between two and a half to four times higher [than in someone who's recovering from Covid-19]," says Ward. "Novavax's and our vaccine are 10 to 15 times higher."
  • a
    anne
    Dec. 3/21 Italian article: "Novavax "vaccine against Omicron in January 2022" / "93% efficacy on other variants"
    Niccolò Magnani
    Novavax announces the production of the ad hoc vaccine against Omicron from January 2022: in the meantime, evaluations are underway on the effectiveness of the current serum against the South African variant.

    Novavax has announced that from January 2022 the production of a specific vaccine against the latest variant of Covid-19 arriving from Africa, the so-called Omicron , will begin . While the US biotech awaits the green light from the European Medicines Agency (EMA ) for the anti-Covid vaccine against Alpha and Delta, here is the announcement of the imminent production against VoC ("variant of concerns", the most dangerous ones ) sequenced in South Africa.
    With a press release directly released by Novavax , two announcements in particular made by the US multinational: first of all, Novavax is currently evaluating the effectiveness of its vaccine against the variant discovered in South Africa , as it has already done for previous variants including Alpha, Beta and Delta. Secondly, Novavax has started the development of a specific vaccine against Omicron thinking of a commercial scale production to start already in the first month of the new year. " Novavax has started the development of a specific construct for Omicronof its SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein (rS) antigen, currently in use in NVX-CoV2373. The initial stages necessary to produce a specific peak for Omicron are underway and GMP production in a commercial facility is scheduled for January 2022. The laboratory evaluation of a new nanoparticle vaccine combined with the strain will begin within a few weeks, "they say. from biotech.
    NOVAVAX, THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE CURRENT VACCINE

    The company that is preparing to receive the green light from the EMA - thus becoming the fifth anti-Covid vaccine on the market in Europe - following the appearance of other VoC variants ( Alpha, Beta, Delta ), has analyzed the antibody responses in the Phase 1/2 study in the United States and Australia. Well, patients who received a third dose (6 month booster) ) of NVX-CoV2373 were evaluated for the production of antibodies against known VoCs in August 2021: the responses are currently very encouraging and practically approaching the similarly to other vaccines with the mRna method (Pfizer and Moderna). "Enhanced anti-Spike IgG responses were greater than those seen in our Phase 3 clinical trials. 96% against the prototype strain and 86% against Alpha. Efficacy in the US / Mexico was 100% against non-VoI / VoC, 93% against VoI / VoC and 94% against Alpha», Novavax notes again. A third booster of Novavax vaccine resulted in ' low rates of adverse and serious events " and was also well tolerated: most recently, " for the time being. After potentiation, all study participants developed consistently high levels of functional hACE2 responses against all VoCs tested. There was a 10.8x increase against Alpha, a 6.6x increase against Beta, and an 8.1x increase against Delta. The responses against Delta and Beta suggest the maturation of the immune response and an efficacy comparable to that observed in our Phase 3 studies."
  • T
    TraderT
    NVAX LONGS. While we are watching market meltdown around us, lets put on the mood music and do a LETS CHILL review:

    Forget trading risks. what other risks remain?

    1. PRODUCT DOES NOT WORK - More data than ANY other manufacturers say this is the best most tolerated, safest, cheapest vaccine PLATFORM for COVID and FLU. Built by scientists. CHECK.
    2. MHR APPROVAL - UK Govt own booster study says we are better than AZ (oxford). They have ordered 60 million NVAX doses and same from each of MRNA and BNTX. Its made in Billingham/Fuji and Fuji yesterday announced a doubling if capacity and a $400 investment. 700 UK jobs now depend on it and UK can make COVID and FLU vaccines. Head of Australia regulatory Greg Hunt yesterday said next week approval. Approval in Australia, NZ and Canada will follow immediately. Canada has built their own NVAX plant. CHECK
    3. EMA APPROVAL. EMA is expected to approve between now and Dec 15. They said so. They ordered 200 Million doses and option more. NVAX is discussing delivery logistics. NVAX is using local production in CZ, Poland and Spain. Mabion installing doubling of capacity. EU gets a better cheaper option than Pfizer for COVID and Flu. Multiple countries are promoting deals with NVAX and stopping MRNA. CHECK
    4. Approval in SK. Local global drug partner SK Bioscience and SK government are stock piling tens of millions of doses and are INDEPENDENTLY doing BLA approval by Dec 25
    5. Approval in Japan. Local global drug partner Takeda and Japanese Govt government are stock piling tens of millions of doses.
    6. Approval and/OR export by India/Serum Institute. 2 Billion dose capacity built and stick piling. Exports to Indonesia and Philipines underway. Pediatric studies wrapping up. DGCI waiting on UK or EMA to approve. SII switching capacity to NVAX from AZ for boosters locally and export
    7. WHO Approval: Ready to roll, waiting UK or EMA
    8. US FDA Approval: Who cares. FDA is bought and paid for by Pfizer. US citizens want alternative to mrna. Government needs a wake up call. Call your senator if you want this vaccine.

    This brings us to valuation: CHECK. No rational market cap valuation below $30-50billion
    1. Market cap $12 Billion.
    2. 2-4 Billion dose capacity x $3-15 = $6-60 billion revenue
    3. Better value proposition than mrna (cheaper, safer, easier to transport)
    4. Local Distribution and manufacturing advantage (Serum Takeda SK Fuji Mabion …..)
    5. Three horse race
    6. Matrix M platform

    Trading Risk: HIGH but we are again at the bottom of the range and the short/ling monthly pattern is clear. The price VARIES A LOT MORE THAN THE REALITY
    1. Short funds
    2. Captive media (eg Politico)
    3. High volatility

    CONCLUSION: BUY/HOLD
  • U
    Utpal
    One of the most rational posts by TraderT.

    NVAX LONGS. While we are watching market meltdown around us, lets put on the mood music and do a LETS CHILL review:

    Forget trading risks. what other risks remain?

    1. PRODUCT DOES NOT WORK - More data than ANY other manufacturers say this is the best most tolerated, safest, cheapest vaccine PLATFORM for COVID and FLU. Built by scientists. CHECK.
    2. MHR APPROVAL - UK Govt own booster study says we are better than AZ (oxford). They have ordered 60 million NVAX doses and same from each of MRNA and BNTX. Its made in Billingham/Fuji and Fuji yesterday announced a doubling if capacity and a $400 investment. 700 UK jobs now depend on it and UK can make COVID and FLU vaccines. Head of Australia regulatory Greg Hunt yesterday said next week approval. Approval in Australia, NZ and Canada will follow immediately. Canada has built their own NVAX plant. CHECK
    3. EMA APPROVAL. EMA is expected to approve between now and Dec 15. They said so. They ordered 200 Million doses and option more. NVAX is discussing delivery logistics. NVAX is using local production in CZ, Poland and Spain. Mabion installing doubling of capacity. EU gets a better cheaper option than Pfizer for COVID and Flu. Multiple countries are promoting deals with NVAX and stopping MRNA. CHECK
    4. Approval in SK. Local global drug partner SK Bioscience and SK government are stock piling tens of millions of doses and are INDEPENDENTLY doing BLA approval by Dec 25
    5. Approval in Japan. Local global drug partner Takeda and Japanese Govt government are stock piling tens of millions of doses.
    6. Approval and/OR export by India/Serum Institute. 2 Billion dose capacity built and stick piling. Exports to Indonesia and Philipines underway. Pediatric studies wrapping up. DGCI waiting on UK or EMA to approve. SII switching capacity to NVAX from AZ for boosters locally and export
    7. WHO Approval: Ready to roll, waiting UK or EMA
    8. US FDA Approval: Who cares. FDA is bought and paid for by Pfizer. US citizens want alternative to mrna. Government needs a wake up call. Call your senator if you want this vaccine.

    This brings us to valuation: CHECK. No rational market cap valuation below $30-50billion
    1. Market cap $12 Billion.
    2. 2-4 Billion dose capacity x $3-15 = $6-60 billion revenue
    3. Better value proposition than mrna (cheaper, safer, easier to transport)
    4. Local Distribution and manufacturing advantage (Serum Takeda SK Fuji Mabion …..)
    5. Three horse race
    6. Matrix M platform

    Trading Risk: HIGH but we are again at the bottom of the range and the short/ling monthly pattern is clear. The price VARIES A LOT MORE THAN THE REALITY
    1. Short funds
    2. Captive media (eg Politico)
    3. High volatility
    Conclusion: Strong BUY!
  • B
    Blue
    I've been traveling and have had little access to the internet. Posting will be spotty for a few days. Below are a few quick comments on the just published CovBoost data.

    First, note that this is a study of boosters after only the AZN and PFE, not boosters after all vaccines. So, for example, the study did not study Cov2373 after Cov2373 or other vaccines after Cov2373. This is understandable from the UK point of view at the time when the study started. Only AZN and PFE were in wide use then. But the results were incomplete and might be unfair to other vaccines such as Cov2373 and MRNA1273 which were not used for primary vaccination.

    In any case, here are some observations:

    1. Cov2373 showed the best safety profile among all boosters.

    2. Cov2373 was an excellent booster after AZN but not quite so after PFE, esp. for cellular responses.

    3. PFE was a very good booster for itself and after AZN.

    4. MRNA was the winner overall for efficacy but also was worse on safety compared to others. This was likely because the full dose was used, not the half-size booster dose.

    So, for the time being, either PFE or the MRNA half-dose shot will likely be the choices for boosting after primary vaccinations with AZN or PFE (and JNJ) for those not concerned with their the rare but real serious adverse events. For those who wish to avoid any such safety issues, Cov2373 will be the choice once it is approved.

    That leaves out, of course, those people in the developed and underdeveloped world who have not been vaccinated yet and could now be vaccinated with Cov2373. Given the safety profile, the superior performance of the Cov2373 booster after itself (besting both PFE after PFE or MRNA after MRNA) and the ready availability anywhere in the world, Cov2373 will likely dominate that market.

    Omicron may change the landscape quite a bit but data are still scant. The race is on for all vaccine companies to show how their current vaccines work against this variant. I am esp. looking forward to seeing the analysis of data from the Cov2373 South Africa trial.

    Good luck everyone and have a nice weekend.
  • C
    California
    Erase it and I will just keep putting it up, not to mention I will erase evey short comment in the board.
    NEIL MITCHELL:

    Good. I'm getting a lot of messages from young men concerned about mRNA vaccines, wanting to- Anxious wants to know what's happening with Novavax. Where does Australia stand with Novavax?

    GREG HUNT:

    Sure. So I actually had a meeting with Novavax Australian and international team yesterday.

    I'm very hopeful that there may be the first international approval over the course of the next week, and that Australia is in a very similar timeframe. I'm hopeful that we might see some positive news before Christmas.

    The TGA, our medical regulator, is an independent body, the Therapeutic Goods Administration. But at this stage, my advice is that it’s progressing well.

    What does that mean? It means that we would have the first of the Novavax subject to the TGA and then Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation, or ATAGI, approval, those two green lights in January.

    And still to be determined. And they're independent regulators and advisory body, but if they give two green lights, then the January rollout is the expectation.

    And there is a sizable group of people, we think, whether it's one per cent, whether it's more than that, that are waiting for Novavax.

    I think that direction is positive. Paul Kelly’s advice this morning, Chief Medical Officer, the best vaccine is the one you can get. Don’t wait, but nevertheless we recognise the reality of it, and that will add to the vaccination rate.

    NEIL MITCHELL:

    Could Novavax be used as a booster?

    GREG HUNT:

    Potentially, and that was what was the advice yesterday, and that was what Paul said today.

    There’s no theoretical barrier to it, but they would need to apply for that. And I did encourage the international board, or senior leadership of Novavax to put in an application if they believe that there’s strong evidence, and that would be assessed in Australia.

    So it's always been presumed that what's called a protein vaccine, think of it as three vaccines. Protein, Novavax; viral vector, which is AstraZeneca; and then the MRNA, Pfizer and Moderna, that the protein could make a very good booster.
  • x
    xamurai
    This looks very good! It’s been almost 4 weeks and we could possibly get news within the next 4 weeks! And remember same process took Modena 6 months to get approved; if we do it within 6 or 8 weeks; it wouid be fantastic!
    EMA receives application for conditional marketing authorisation of Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid Share

    News 17/11/2021
    EMA has started evaluating an application for conditional marketing authorisation for Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid (also known as NVX-CoV2373). The assessment will proceed under an accelerated timeline, and an opinion on the marketing authorisation could be issued within weeks if the data submitted are sufficiently robust and complete to show the efficacy, safety and quality of the vaccine.
    Such a short timeframe is only possible because EMA has already reviewed a substantial portion of the data on the vaccine during a rolling review. During this phase, EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) assessed data from laboratory studies (non-clinical data), some information on the quality of the vaccine and the way it will be produced, and data on its safety, immunogenicity (how well it triggers a response against the virus) and efficacy against COVID-19 from clinical studies in adults. 
    In parallel, EMA’s safety committee (PRAC) completed the preliminary assessment of the risk management plan (RMP) proposed by the company, which outlines measures to identify, characterise and minimise the medicine’s risks. 
    Furthermore, EMA’s committee for medicines for children (PDCO) has issued its opinion on the company’s paediatric investigation plan (PIP), which describes how the medicine should be developed and studied for use in children, in accordance with the accelerated timelines for COVID-19 medicines. 
    If EMA concludes that the benefits of Nuvaxovid outweigh its risks in protecting against COVID‑19, it will recommend granting a conditional marketing authorisation. The European Commission will then fast-track its decision-making process with a view to granting a conditional marketing authorisation valid in all EU and EEA Member States within days.
    EMA will communicate at the time of CHMP’s opinion. 
    How is the vaccine expected to work?
    Like other vaccines, Nuvaxovid is expected to prepare the body to defend itself against infection. The vaccine contains tiny particles made from a version of a protein found on the surface of SARS-CoV-2 (the spike (S) protein), which has been produced in the laboratory. It also contains an ‘adjuvant’, a substance to help strengthen the immune responses to the vaccine.
    When a person is given the vaccine, their immune system will identify the protein particles as foreign and produce natural defences — antibodies and T cells — against them. If, later on, the vaccinated person comes into contact with SARS-CoV-2, the immune system will recognise the spike protein on the virus and be prepared to attack it. The antibodies and immune cells can protect against COVID-19 by working together to kill the virus, prevent its entry into the body’s cells and destroy infected cells.
  • a
    alberto
    Six different Covid vaccines are safe and effective when used as boosters, UK study finds.- CNBC
    Key Points :
    The phase 2 trial, published Thursday in The Lancet medical journal, looked at the safety and efficacy of seven vaccines given after two initial doses of either the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
    All seven vaccines boosted immunity when given 10 to 12 weeks after two doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, the study found.
    All of the vaccines except Valneva’s boosted immunity in participants whose initial two doses were the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, researchers said.

    ″[This study] gives confidence and flexibility in developing booster programs here in the U.K. and globally, with other factors like supply chain and logistics also in play,” he said in a press release on Thursday.

    “Further work will generate data at three months and one year after people have received their boosters, which will provide insights into their impact on long-term protection and immunological memory.”

    Other limitations included the age range of participants, the fact that most of those taking part in the research were white and the shortened timeframe between doses, which the report’s authors said could dent immune responses.

    The research team is now studying the effects of boosters seven to eight months after their initial doses, with results expected in 2022.
  • W
    Who.m.I
    If you look at the following EMA statement on 17 November again, EMA said it would take “weeks”, now it’s 12 working days, e.g 2 weeks, its so close to the approval now, same to the MHRA approval considering today’s UK news related to the vaccine.

    “News 17/11/2021
    EMA has started evaluating an application for conditional marketing authorisation for Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid (also known as NVX-CoV2373). The assessment will proceed under an accelerated timeline, and an opinion on the marketing authorisation could be issued within weeks if the data submitted are sufficiently robust and complete to show the efficacy, safety and quality of the vaccine.
    Such a short timeframe is only possible because EMA has already reviewed a substantial portion of the data on the vaccine during a rolling review. During this phase, EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) assessed data from laboratory studies (non-clinical data), some information on the quality of the vaccine and the way it will be produced, and data on its safety, immunogenicity (how well it triggers a response against the virus) and efficacy against COVID-19 from clinical studies in adults. “

    Agree it or not, it makes sense that some hidden forces have inside information for the imminent EMA or MHRA approval, they want to accumulate cheap shares as much as possible before any major approvals, plus those shorting activities, which could explain today’s sudden drop, do you have better explanations?
  • K
    Kobei
    I’m not sure if a lot of people caught this, but Moderna used a 100 microgram dose for the mix and match trials instead of their 50 microgram dose that they have been currently vaccinating. This kind of skews the results in their favor, but at what cost? Certainly, there will be much more side effects in the short term and long term with that high of a dose. I’ll stick with NVAX as a booster, even if it is a little bit lower immune response, given now it is established as the safest vaccine out there.
  • L
    LH
    Take away from Lancet: safest vaccine that provides protection from Covid Novavax.
    List of side effects due to Moderna/Pfizer/AstraZeneca required complex charts and explanations.
    Novavax simply stated mild side effects.
    Study biased for AstraZeneca and bntx since those are the only 2 vaccines approved in UK.
    It stands to reason if you give someone the same vaccine or similar vaccines (mrna based vaccines) that the immune boost would be stronger than if you give vaccines that are completed unrelated.
    Yet even with the deck stacked against it Nvax did in fact show robust protection.
    Study compared bntx/bntx/Moderna vs bntx/bntx/nvax
    Imagine if they had compared 3 Nvax vaccines vs nvax/nvax/bntx
    Nvax data would have been much better!
  • T
    TraderT
    NVAX Longs Chill Review PART II - STRATEGY - and why NVAX IS NOT JUST A SHORT TERM PLAY. Sanofi should buy them out now for $400 or go out of business. Adding to my Part I post below:

    The COVID Vaccine race has become a three horse race, down from 6+ yesterday. Why?
    1. OCGN, whether approvable or not, does not have the distribution, efficacy, cost benefits to differentiate or beat MRNA, BNTX or NVAX
    2. Sanofi, apparently the world’s “best” vaccine company failed. They stopped BOTH their MRNA and Traditional covid programs, after investing billions.
    3. Astrazeneca is bested by NVAX, MRNA and BNTX on every aspect. Note that India has used this vaccine on 1 billion people and Serum Institute now switching from making AZ to making NVAVX to make money on boosters :). Eurporean countries dropping AZ. USA never approved it.
    4. J&, Sinovac and Sputnik are failed alternatives and not suitable boosters (per the study last night)

    That leaves a three horse race: NVAX, BNTX, MRNA. Among which how many people do you know who would rather have NVAX than the mrna vaccine due to the horrible user experience/side effects? Plus NVAX is CHEAPER, EASIER and SAFER

    So we will go from zero market share to some reasonable market share very quickly. Hence I believe they will be able to sell whatever they can product and use the same platform for Flu vaccines, and Malaria etc

    NVAX HAS WAY MORE SCALE THAN MRNA OR BNTX/PFE believe it or not.

    CONCLUSION: NOT JUST A SHORT TERM PLAY. Sanofi should buy them out now for $400 or go out of business
  • M
    Mike
    EMA tweeted NVAX is on the last mile !!! Good news! https://twitter.com/ema_news/status/1467078735425949698?s=21
  • B
    BHVR
    WSJ

    The Food and Drug Administration is laying the groundwork for the rapid review of Omicron-targeted vaccines and drugs if they turn out to be needed, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The agency, building on rules established earlier this year to assess shots and treatments, has been meeting with drugmakers and setting guidelines for the studies and data needed to swiftly evaluate products targeting the new Omicron Covid-19 variant, the people said…….. For vaccines, the companies wouldn’t have to conduct large, lengthy trials enrolling thousands of subjects that wait for a certain number to catch symptomatic Covid-19. Instead, they could, for example, study the immune responses in a few hundred subjects.
  • F
    Fire Truck
    Australian government website....Novavax, finally! Let's go beeches! Hold on for long. Only approvals for the next few weeks.

    "I'm very hopeful that there may be the first international approval over the course of the next week, and that Australia is in a very similar timeframe. I'm hopeful that we might see some positive news before Christmas." - Australian health minister

    https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/interview-with-neil-mitchell-from-3aw-mornings-on-3-december-2021-on-covid-19-cases-update-on-the-novavax-rollout-and-retirement-from-federal-politics
    Read the transcript of Minister Hunt's interview with Neil Mitchell from 3AW Mornings on 3 December 2021, on COVID-19 cases, update on the Novavax rollout and retirement from federal politics.
    Read the transcript of Minister Hunt's interview with Neil Mitchell from 3AW Mornings on 3 December 2021, on COVID-19 cases, update on the Novavax rollout and retirement from federal politics.
    www.health.gov.au
  • M
    MartinS
    Before omicron news broke Novavax was almost a sure thing with imminent approvals about to send the stock price flying. Since Omicron surfaced there are increased risks and doubts, and that is probably why the stock price has been so volatile.

    There is a false narrative going around that omicron is more mild than delta and other covid variants, meaning there would be less need for vaccinations against it and if it is far more contagious it could displace worse variants and hasten the end of the pandemic. If this had proven to be true it would have been great for the world but bad for vaccine stocks. But it is not looking like it is more mild. Hospitalizations (a lagging indicator) are now rising rapidly in Sth Africa and will likely be followed by steep rises in severe illness and deaths. I’d say things are very likely to get much worse for the world but it might take a little while to make that clear, and in the meantime there is a lot of downplaying of omicron.

    There was a possibility that Moderna and Pfizer vaccines would prove effective enough against the new variant that no modification would be needed, but that Novavax might not be as effective against it due to omicron having some similarities to beta. I think it is likely that if Novavax needs to modify its vaccine for omicron that the other vaccines will need to too. All of the vaccines will likely still show fairly good protection against severe illness and death including Novavax, but it is too early to tell if a new vaccine will be needed. I'm thinking it is more likely than not.

    If all vaccines end up needing to be modified Novavax is seen as slow and coming from behind having not been approved for its original vaccine. This is only a perception and Novavax can prove it false and actually take the lead on this as they are now saying they will start manufacturing an omicron vaccine in January for use in clinical trials - earlier than I would have expected.

    If the vaccines show low efficacy against omicron it would be bad at first for all vaccine stocks, but it should be worse for the previously established vaccines as it upsets the status quo and threatens them the most, while it actually opens a door for Novavax to compete in a new race for a vaccine and opens up the market again that was previously saturated. It could mean that current boosters are not seen as very effective against omicron which would bring their use to a halt and that opens the possibility for large new orders for any large producer of an omicron vaccine. Novavax is in a much better position to compete in that race than they were last time as they have now managed to overcome assay and regulatory issues and scale up their manufacturing. This could actually be the best thing to happen to Novavax, but it will need to play out first. There are still a lot of unknowns.

    I expect with all of this uncertainty over omicron the stock price will be volatile for a while until investors are able to make clearer predictions. Approvals will help give Novavax credibility again that they are in the race and can produce a variant vaccine if it is needed. It could be that an approval from a major regulator will send Novavax stock up much higher than it otherwise would have because it will mean Novavax is now very competitive in a changing market.
  • j
    jim
    Breaking News from Australia!!!!!

    The Federal Health Minister is optimistic that Novavax COVID-19 vaccines will be available in Australia in January.
    Following a meeting with Novavax yesterday, Greg Hunt says he’s “very hopeful” the first international approval will be granted in the next week.

    Hit the like so other can see folks!!!
    https://www.3aw.com.au/health-minister-shares-the-latest-on-novavax-and-his-view-on-persistent-covid-19-cases-in-victoria/
  • L
    Laxmoji
    Interview with Neil Mitchell from 3AW Mornings on 3 December 2021, on COVID-19 cases, update on the Novavax rollout and retirement from federal politics
    Read the transcript of Minister Hunt's interview with Neil Mitchell from 3AW Mornings on 3 December 2021, on COVID-19 cases, update on the Novavax rollout and retirement from federal politics.

    https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/interview-with-neil-mitchell-from-3aw-mornings-on-3-december-2021-on-covid-19-cases-update-on-the-novavax-rollout-and-retirement-from-federal-politics
  • N
    Nick
    Perhaps today was the final dump before the pump. Big boys trying to get as many cheap shares as they could.

    This evening:

    -The Lancet finally published the results from 🇬🇧 UK mix and match booster trial. Nvax did well, even with only a 1/2 dose.

    -The Health Minister of Australia Greg Hunt said he expects nvax to get international approval within days and Australia to approve right after, likely before Christmas.

    -Already 5 confirmed cases of Omicron in NY alone.

    Short Sale Rule in effect tomorrow, so they won’t be able to hold us back. Expecting deep green tomorrow even for a Friday. Already up $7-8 AH. 🤞🤞