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Galapagos NV (GLPG)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real-time price. Currency in USD
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this company has over $5 billion of cash plus some approved drugs which have to have some value. Yet the market value is only $3.65 billion, seems like a no-brainer asset play lime Peter Lynch talked about in his book. Eventually the market should wake up and push the price way higher.
what am I missing?
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Galapagos reached a 52 Week low at 48.16
Julius Caesar - Renaissance
At low 30s all of the bank stoploss levels will be taken out (they could have agreements with shorters to split some profits). Nobody knows exactly what happens behind closed doors, but there are some Dutch media who hyped Galapagos at 200 euro / share just to get more people in. And coincidentally it went from AEX to AMX. And usually near the bottom they will spread a lot of fear. I believe low 30s will form a bottom (maybe it goes short time just below). But from there big money will move in to swipe up all the call options and shares. In the next 9 years Gilead is likely to put a take over bid. Dutch people are getting desperate.
Sharp upward move following Wednesday's hammer candlestick (Amsterdam chart). A possible technical pointer that the bottom is in.
Poor results in phase 2 study of Bristol Myers Squibb's Deucravacitinib in patients with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. Good news of course for companies with rival UC products.
Remember that time when the Germans grouped up on social media specifically that Volker dude and pumped this to high heaven and created some enormous bagholders? That was funny.
EU CHMP positive advice on UC Jyseleca.
Be patient, tax loss selling season is upon us.
Capital increases its holdings over the 5% threshold. Filed.
I’m wondering about the disparity in price movement between GLPG and GILD. If Filgotnib is the reason to be bullish, wouldn’t you expect them to move somewhat in tandem? Perhaps Toledo is the real story. Anyone know when we might expect an update on Toledo?
Filgotnib means a lot more to GLPG than GILD that is so much bigger
Think Toledo is in pretty early stages but GLPG sounded pretty upbeat about it. I’m beginning to wonder if acquisition by GILD is even that desirable. New GILD CEO is talking about ‘small, bolt-on’ early stage acquisitions that frankly is not what a company GILD’s size needs. They need something big to be meaningful.
Enough cash on hand, so no need for a new offering. Successful investor meetings result in funds wanting a piece. Only current way funds are getting in is via the open market. When funds stop buying price will drop again a bit, but that is just a rimple in the way ahead.
discl: was, am and will be long.
You’re about the only one worth reading on this board. GLPG seems excited about its ‘Toledo’ platform that’s only in about phase 1. They own it 100%. Any thoughts? I’m beginning to think the more GILD waits, the more they’ll end up having to pay.
Afraid filgotinib is in the stock price. It’s relative failure in that stomach colitis trial doesn’t auger well for Chrone’s disease that may start bringing analysts thee billion projections down (with only RA looking good). Great pipeline, but nothing imminent as an additional catalyst. Good company longer term, but probably dead money for now.
from Andrew Dunn:
Top takeout targets, per new Credit Suisse investor survey:
CEO O'Day: $GILD has sense of "urgency" for M&A, seeking “transformative" deals a la $GLPG, as well as small- to medium-sized bolt-on takeouts. Co also working “night and day” to ramp up manufacturing for #2019nCoV therapy via @BioCentury's @LaboratoryLiz biocentury.com/article/304375
Quite the day. If anyone wonders what a real institution (Blackrock) selling looks like, this was it. Hard to be positive about it, but at least buyers started stepping up at 74 usd, I took the chance to add some as well. Glad the 2017 support levels are holding for now.
Now, when it comes to the ER.. I don't think the financials need much of an explanation, the small "profit" was mainly due to the Fidelta sale and EUR/USD exchange literally hitting its low at the end of March. Sales and royalty income was rather low, and today during the presentation they said France would also need Manta results before allowing Filgo for men. Management doesn't worry about the outcome of the study, but it doesn't really reinstate the confidence from the investors. Hopefully, Manta will be just fine and sales will follow slowly but surely (obviously they still need to fix reimbursements, but investors are impatient).
Dropping the trash/filler from their pipeline is a good move in my opinion, but it's easy to see all the things dropped as a waste of money and just another failure. But focusing on just a couple of areas, where they should have plenty of expertise, will be beneficial in the long run. They dropped '1205 in IPF because they felt it was a molecule that would be suited for combination with another drug, not as a "stand-alone", while the chitinase inhibitor showed more promise. Metabolic diseases were dropped because of the "difficulty level", I think it would take too many resources that are better spent in their core area.
As I mentioned here yesterday, the potential for SIK inhibitors (Toledo) is huge.. But being first means it's also risky and difficult. For the people who like to read, there is some studies to be found online. The analyst from Jefferies stated that a succesful Toledo molecule would reach peak sales of 3b, which is obviously a bit random, since it's so early and PoC studies are still underway with first results only expected this summer..
Anyway, during the webcast there was another confirmation that they are looking to "fill the gap" between Filgo and the existing pipeline. Both acquiring a late-stage ph2 molecule (together with Gilead?) and getting the commercial rights for the European sales of a product are being looked at. Getting in some revenue instead of sitting on all that cash would be a good move, as long as they are patient while looking for a target and don't overpay or rush things.
There is some things to look forward to, but all in all I expect a calm year. Hopefully when it comes to share price, we will also find a bottom soon, although cheap shares are also an interesting prospect.
Personal: Obviously I'm long this stock. In an overpriced market I thought this was an interesting target, because of the cash, the potential and the belief that this is way oversold because it did not live up to the hype. Also, got a biochemistry background which helps. Pretty active here because I'm still building a position since, you know, the catching a falling knife thing. Now, I do not set price targets, because I intend to let this compound for the rest of my life (I'm in my twenties).
Sorry for the novel, but this board really needs some positives. (I understand the pain if you are sitting on 100+ euro shares..)
5 board-members just bought today an amount of 25.000 shares total to show they have still faith in the company. For what it’s worth
Is anybody oft on this board? GLPG making highs almost daily. Anybody know why?
Somebody knows something. This doesn’t look like a short squeeze to me. Should be a very interesting weekend.
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