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American International Group, Inc. (AIG-PA)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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26.53+0.04 (+0.15%)
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  • f
    flogel
    I couldn’t be happier with the daily emails I get from (http://trademarketview.tech). They give me the best daily advice based on stock market news and help me make wiser decisions when it comes to investing. An absolute must for any investor!
  • J
    John
    Positive on liquidity from the earnings call. Ended the quarter with 5.3 Billion of liquidity, they sold a 9.9% of L & R in Q4 for 2.2 Billion, should earn 1 Billion in Q4 and sell the affordable housing assets for another 4.4 Billion. That's roughly 13 Billion excluding a sale of the remaining L & R stake. Sounded like they were considering going about a 20% total number on the IPO but getting to the 20% would give then another 2.2 Billion for a total of 15.3 Billion.
    They have already committed to 1 Billion of debt reduction and 1 Billion of buybacks in Q4 so a net of 13.3 Billion. Seems like they are comfortable at 5 Billion so that leaves 8 Billion for buybacks. As mentioned prior the current P & C market cap is roughly 27 Billion(including the addition 1 Billion buyback in Q4).
    With a ratio under 90% for 22, P & C could earn 7 Billion pre-tax and they shouldn't have to cash pay taxes due to the NOL.
    27 Billion current cap, less 8 Billion additional buyback gives you a 19 Billion stock that could earn 7 Billion pre-tax. That's a very long way of saying it's really cheap here.
  • j
    josh
    (AIG) reported Q3 adjusted after-tax earnings of $0.97 per diluted share, compared with $0.81 a year earlier.

    Analysts polled by Capital IQ expected $0.92.

    Net investment income for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was $3.72 billion, down from $3.80 billion a year earlier. Analysts polled by Capital IQ expected $2.87 billion.

    The insurance company's board maintained a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share, payable Dec. 30 to shareholders of record on Dec. 16.
  • j
    josh
    11/8/21
    RBC Raises Price American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $65.00 ➝ $73.00 Outperform
  • J
    James
    got to love it. no noise great liquidity low price buybacks and blackstone does not invest in losers. the value of the two companies will be in the seventies next year.
  • T
    Tom
    So far the new ceo doing great job taking the share holders down
  • J
    John
    "Short-termism"driving AIG's excessive ceding?

    As has been mention in prior posts, AIG cedes premium at a much greater rate than Chubb. In 2020 AIG Ceded 11 billion vs Chubb's 7 Billion a difference of 4 Billion. I've adjusted the numbers for Chubb's having roughly 14% greater gross written premium than AIG.
    What does AIG get for this extra $4 Billion - their catastrophic losses were 1.5 Billion less than Chubb's and we are running at about the same differential this year. That's 2.5 BILLION of lost income before taxes.
    AIG consistently cites "reduction in volatility" as it's reason for so much ceding. I don't know about you but I'll take a really large catastrophic loss in a quarter or two(short term thinking) if I'm getting an additional 2.5 Billion over the course of the year.
    Their thinking on this issue is very hard to understand.
  • J
    John
    Chubb valuation 85 Billion - AIG P & C Business 27 Billion(51mkt cap-22L&R-2buyback by EOY)
    Chubb's Gross Policies Written Q2 & Q1 of 2021 22 Billion vs AIG 20.3 Billion
    AIG needs to reduce the amount it cedes. They reduced their limits dramatically so they need to increase the amount of risk they take. There is no excuse for it.
  • j
    josh
    11/9/21
    UBS Raises Price American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $64.00 ->$65.00
  • j
    josh
    10/12/21
    Barclays Raises Price American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $53.00 ➝ $59.00 Equal Weight
  • q
    queenie
    Anyone else think AIG can get to $60 by year end?
  • A
    Anonymous
    80 by year end
  • J
    John
    Wow! Chubb added 1 billion in net written premium quarter over quarter!
  • J
    James
    no one on this stock. no rara about 6b buyback no rara about the coming split or capital infusion. when it happens we go to book value. in the mean time they are eating up their tax losses and turning them into cash. at least 50% return by 1/1/23
  • p
    pikodog
    This ride is a lot longer than what I thought it would be when I bought a large amount of AIG stock prior to the reverse 1-20 split but I'm encouraged that I could actually turn a profit in another 12-24 months.
  • j
    josh
    10/8/21
    Piper Sandler Raises Price American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $59.00 -> $63.00
  • j
    josh
    9/23/21
    RBC Raises Price American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $60.00 -> $65.00
  • J
    John
    Trying to figure out when stock tanked during CC and believe it was when they said net 2020 premium was going to be flat with 19 at 25 billion. AIG ceded 28% of their premiums in 2019 vs 22% in 2018 vs Chubbs 20% in 2019. That 8% difference between them and Chubb is worth 2.7 billion pre-tax, and we know AIG doesn't have to cash pay taxes for a while. The 5% move for them from 18 to 19 was 1.9 billion difference in net premium. Perplexed why/how they can reduce limits and increase deductibles and get huge price increases yoy BUT they still need to increase reinsurance ceded by 5% and do it at a rate 40% worse than Chubb. What kind of policies had they been writing in the past? Perhaps they should tell us occasionally what the Cat Losses would have been had they not reinsured. It's hard to fathom they would need to give up 2.6 billion to what Chubb is doing to protect against CAT losses. Again, what kind of risk were you taking in 2018 when you ceded 1.9 billion less in premium and your deductibles and limits were apparently 50% greater than in 2019. I guess another way to check the CAT loss protection out is to see what AIG's 2019 CAT losses were vs. Chubb's. What do we get for the 2.6 billion. I will check that and get back to you.
  • K
    Kaptain
    Baby Steps: I expected AIG to crush earnings, but the beat was only modest. I get the impression that running an insurance operation is like herding cats. Results from positive initiatives are so amorphous and slow. We are deep into Brian's second year and he's still struggling to recover the stock price that Peter left him with. I feel more relieved than grateful with this report.
  • J
    John
    Appear to be adding tremendous liquidity which should speed debt reduction(assuming debt is callable) and more importantly buybacks. Investment book in L & R was sold in July for 6.8 billion minimum(that was value of investments). Affordable housing will be sold in fourth quarter with 4 billion cash being sent to the parent. 2.2 billion dollars from Blackstone L & R 9.9% deal and then another 2 billion potential from the L & R IPO. Was hard to decipher but it appeared they were intimating on the call that the L & R IPO may go above another 9.9% which would mean more than 2 billion. That's almost 15 BILLION of liquidity excluding earnings. I've cited several times about how they are overcapitalized at both P&C and L&R so it makes sense they would sell investments for cash and then put that cash to work in some fashion.
    The value of P&C is now roughly 21 billion if you assume the Blackstone valuation of L & R at 22 billion is accurate. Where will they put the 15 BILLION to work? Could they do it all, except the 2 billion buyback in 21? That means 13 BILLION and that excludes earnings for the next two quarters with last quarter's earnings at 1.3 BILLION.