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Why Is Ovintiv (OVV) Down 1.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ovintiv (OVV). Shares have lost about 1.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ovintiv due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ovintiv Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat

Ovintiv reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.44, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.98. The downside in results can be attributed to a year-over-year dip in production and much higher costs. Moreover, $1.44 was lower than the year-ago bottom line’s profit of $1.50 per share.

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However, total revenues of $3.55 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.52 billion due to higher-than-expected total oil and natural gas liquid production. Total oil production came in at 179,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 136,000 BOE/d. The top line improved by about 98.4% from the year-ago sales of $1.79 billion.

OVV’s board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of 25 cents per share for its common shareholders of record as of Dec 15, 2022. The dividend will be paid out on Dec 30.

Production & Prices

The total third-quarter production came in at 516,300 BOE/d compared with 534,700 BOE/d in the prior-year period. However, the same outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 503,000 BOE/d. Lower volumes can be attributed to natural gas production falling 4.2% year over year to 1,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), while liquids production was down 2.7% to 266,300 BOE/d.

Ovintiv's realized natural gas price was $1.85 per thousand cubic feet compared with the year-ago level of $3.02. The realized oil price increased to $81.74 per barrel from $53.31 in the third quarter of 2021.

Costs, Capex & Balance Sheet

Total expenses in the reported quarter increased to $2.18 billion from the year-ago figure of $1.79 billion. This rise is primarily attributable to greater market optimization operating expenses.

Ovintiv’s cash from operating activities in the quarter under review summed at $962 million, up from the year-ago figure of $812 million. Its capital investments were $511 million compared with $365 million in the year-ago period. Ovintiv generated non-GAAP free cash flow of $437 billion in the reported quarter.

As of Sep 30, the company had cash and cash equivalents worth $18 million and long-term debt of $3.18 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization at the end of the reported quarter was 35.6%.

Guidance

Ovintiv expects capital expenditure in the $300-$350 million range for the fourth quarter of 2022 and 1.8 billion for the full year.

For 2022, OVV now projects crude oil and condensate volumes to average between 174,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 176,000 bpd, and between 174,000 and 176,000 bpd for the fourth quarter. Natural gas production is estimated in the 1,525-1,575 MMcf/d range for the fourth quarter and between 1,480 and 1,510 MMcf/d for the entire year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Ovintiv has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Ovintiv has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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