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Why Is MSCI (MSCI) Down 5.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for MSCI (MSCI). Shares have lost about 5.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MSCI due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

MSCI Q1 Earnings Beat, Recurring Subscription Revenues Rise

MSCI first-quarter 2020 adjusted earnings of $1.90 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.1% and also increased 22.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Operating revenues improved 12.2% year over year to $416.8 million but lagged the consensus mark by 1%. This year-over-year growth was driven by a 7.8% and 22.5% rise in recurring subscriptions (73% of revenues) and asset-based fees (24% of revenues), respectively.

Non-recurring revenues (2.9% of revenues) surged 68.7% year over year to $12.2 million.

Organic operating revenues (excluding the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations) rose 12.3% year over year.

Organic recurring subscription, asset-based fee and non-recurring revenues grew 8%, 22.5% and 67.8% each.

At the end of the quarter, average assets under management (AUM) were $709.5 billion in ETFs linked to MSCI indexes. Total retention rate was 95% in the quarter under review.

Index Revenue Details

In the first quarter, Index operating revenues (59.8% of operating revenues) improved 16.1% year over year to $249.3 million, primarily driven by strong growth in recurring subscriptions (up 9.5%) and asset-based fees (up 22.5%).

Higher recurring subscriptions were driven by growth in custom and specialized index products, core products and factor and ESG index products.

Index net new recurring subscription sales increased 7.5%.

Analytics Revenue Details

Analytics operating revenues (30.1% of operating revenues) improved 3.4% year over year to $125.5 million. While recurring subscription revenues increased 3.3%, non-recurring revenues were up 8.9%. Multi-Asset Class and Equity Analytics products also witnessed growth in the quarter.

Analytics net new recurring subscription sales plunged 40.4%.

All Other Segment Revenue Details

All Other operating revenues (10.1% of operating revenues) rose 19.5% from the year-ago quarter to $42 million, primarily driven by recurring subscriptions (up 17.2%).

All Other organic operating revenue growth was 20.7% with ESG organic operating revenues increasing 17.2% and Real Estate organic operating revenues rising 26.2%.

All Other net new recurring subscription sales grew 3%.

Operating Details

Adjusted EBITDA grew 15.9% year over year to $229.2 million in the reported quarter. Moreover, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 180 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis to 55%.

Total operating expenses were flat on a year-over-year basis at $209 million, primarily due to higher compensation and benefit costs.

Research & Development (R&D) and general & Administrative (G&A) expenses rose 14.6% and 12.1%, respectively. Selling & Marketing (S&M) expenses slid 0.9%.

Operating income improved 27.8% from the year-ago quarter to $207.9 million. Operating margin expanded 610 bps to 49.9%.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

Total cash and cash equivalents as of Mar 31, 2020 were $1.07 billion compared with $1.51 billion as of Dec 31, 2019.

Total debt was $3.2 billion as of Mar 31. Total debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio (based on trailing twelve-month-adjusted EBITDA) was 3.6X, higher than management’s target range of 3-3.5x.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $112.8 million in the first quarter compared with $243.6 million in the sequential quarter. Free cash flow was $102 million compared with $225.2 million in the prior-reported quarter.

In first quarter and through Apr 24, 2020, MSCI repurchased 1.4 million shares for a total value of $356.8 million. Notably, $1.1 billion is outstanding under the share repurchase authorization as of Apr 24, 2020.

MSCI also paid out dividend worth $57.8 million in the first quarter.

Guidance

For 2020, MSCI expects total operating expenses of $790-$840 million, down from the previous guided range of $840-$860 million. Adjusted EBITDA expenses are expected between $700 million and $750 million, down from the past projection of $750-$770 million.

Capex is expected to be $50-$60 million, down from the earlier forecast of $60-$70 million.

Moreover, net cash provided by operating activities and free cash flow are expected to be $600-$650 million (down from $650-$700 million) and $540-$600 million (down from $580-$640 million), respectively.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

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VGM Scores

Currently, MSCI has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, MSCI has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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