Why latest Philippine warning of South China Sea war may not be cause for serious alarm
Chinese analysts have said the risk of conflict in the South China Sea is low despite the warning by the Philippine defence minister that it would be an "act of war" if Beijing removed a ship moored at a disputed atoll.
Gilberto Teodoro Jnr told CBS that "if China were to take the Sierra Madre, that is a clear act of war on the Philippine vessel", adding that in such an event, the United States would be expected to step in to help its ally.
The BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era warship, was deliberately grounded at Second Thomas Shoal by the Philippines in 1999 to assert the country's territorial claim and it has been manned by a small contingent of marines since then.
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"That is an outpost of Philippine sovereignty so we're not only talking about a rusty old vessel solely. We are talking about a piece of Philippine territory there," Teodoro added.
The US and Philippines signed a mutual defence treaty in 1951 under which Washington has promised to help Manila if its armed forces come under attack.
But Chinese observers downplayed the risk of war and pointed out that Sierra Madre was falling apart and too fragile to be removed by force.
"Technically speaking, towing is not a good option for China and it's not necessary," said Hu Bo, director of Beijing-based think tank the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative.
"I think China has more than one way to clear away the ship, but how strong the measures will be depends on the Philippines."
After months of tensions, including a series of clashes near the reef, the two sides reached an agreement to manage tensions in July.
The deal started to unravel within days as the two sides publicly disputed details of what had been agreed, but Hu said it remained valid in Beijing's eyes "as long as the Philippines follows the rules".
According to the Chinese side, Manila agreed to give advance notice of resupply missions to the Sierra Madre and accept Chinese on-site supervision - all of which was denied by the Philippines.
Since then clashes between Chinese and Philippine coastguards have continued in other parts of the South China Sea.
After one clash last month near the Sabina Shoal, another disputed reef, Beijing accused the US of "interfering in law-enforcement activities" after a P-8A Poseidon control and reconnaissance aircraft was spotted nearby.
A recent US training exercise in Florida involving more than 30 drone squadrons indicates the importance of the South China Sea in the military's thinking.
A photograph from the annual Reaper Smoke event released by the Pentagon showed a map of Mischief Reef - an artificial island in the Spratly Islands that hosts a Chinese military base - describing it as one of the "tactical scenarios" in the exercise.
Mischief Reef is only 13 nautical miles (24km) northeast of Second Thomas Shoal, and China's extensive land reclamation and building programme there over a decade ago - including an airstrip - could increase the Philippine exposure to potential attacks.
While US officials, including Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, have stressed that the US will continue to support its ally, some Chinese observers are sceptical about how far Washington will go.
Hu said: "The US will fight for its own interests rather than the interests of the Philippines.
"Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal have little value to the US. The alliance with the Philippines is important to the US, but the US is unlikely to allow tensions escalate into a war."
Philippine Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro Jnr says the BPF Sierra Madre is an outpost of Philippine sovereignty. Photo: AP alt=Philippine Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro Jnr says the BPF Sierra Madre is an outpost of Philippine sovereignty. Photo: AP>
Chen Xiangmiao, an associate research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said "both [the US and China] understand that managing the crisis is in the best interest of the two sides".
Recent efforts to contain tensions included a video call last week between Wu Yanan, head of the People's Liberation Army's Southern Theatre Command, and Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command - the first talks of their kind in two weeks.
Wu, whose command oversees the South China Sea, is also expected to take part in a military conference hosted by Paparo in Hawaii this month, according to the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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