It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Foot Locker (FL). Shares have added about 3.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Foot Locker due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Foot Locker’s Q2 Earnings & Sales Miss Estimates
Foot Locker posted dismal second-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The top and the bottom lines fell year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Driven by a worse-than-expected consumer slowdown, which led to a sales decline, management lowered the outlook for fiscal 2023.
The athletic shoes and apparel retailer posted adjusted earnings of 4 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 5 cents per share. The bottom line decreased from adjusted earnings per share of $1.10 in the prior-year quarter.
Total sales of $1,864 million missed the consensus estimate of $1,884 million. Also, the metric declined 9.9% from the year-ago reported period. Excluding the foreign-currency fluctuation impact, total sales fell 10.2%. Digital penetration was 15.5% in the reported quarter, up 50 basis points (bps) year over year, excluding East Bay, which was closed last year.
Comparable-store sales (comps) fell 9.4% due to persistent consumer softness, changing vendor mix and repositioning of Champs Sports.
An Insight Into Margins
Foot Locker's gross margin rate in the reported quarter dropped 460 bps from the prior-year quarter’s figure. Higher promotional landscape including markdowns, occupancy deleverage and increased shrink caused a margin decline. We had expected a gross margin decline of 520 bps in the quarter.
The selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased 190 bps as a percentage of sales from the prior year due to underlying sales decline, inflation and investments in front-line wages and technology. However, this was partially offset by savings from the cost optimization program. We had anticipated SG&A expenses to expand 140 bps.
Other Financial Details
Foot Locker ended the fiscal second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $180 million. Long-term debt and obligations under finance leases amounted to $444 million and shareholders’ equity summed at $3,247 million. As of Jul 29, 2023, merchandise inventories were $1,831 million, up 11.4% from the year-earlier quarter’s end level.
During the reported quarter, management paid a quarterly dividend of 40 cents per share, valuing $37 million. It did not repurchase shares in the quarter. We note that the company is pausing the quarterly cash dividends after its recently-approved payout on Oct 27 to holders of record as on Oct 13, in a bid to boost the balance sheet flexibility to drive long-term growth.
For fiscal 2023, management expects the sales to decline 8-9%, including 1% from the extra week, and the comps to fall 9-10% year over year. These are comparable with the earlier views of sales and comps declining by 6.5-8% and 7.5-9%, respectively. Licensing revenues are likely to be $17 million.
The gross margin is anticipated to decrease 390-410 bps in the range of 27.8-28% compared with the prior view of 28.6-28.8%. The company lowered the gross margin guidance on account of higher markdown activity, incremental occupancy deleverages and an increase in shrink. The SG&A rate is forecast to be 22.7-22.9%, up from the earlier view of 22.4-22.6%.
The company envisions fiscal 2023 adjusted earnings per share to be $1.30-$1.50, down from $2.00-$2.25 predicted earlier. The earnings guidance incudes 15 cents a share from the extra week. Management predicts adjusted CapEx to be $290 million for fiscal 2023, versus the earlier estimate of $305 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -54.7% due to these changes.
Currently, Foot Locker has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Foot Locker has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Foot Locker belongs to the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry. Another stock from the same industry, Capri Holdings (CPRI), has gained 0.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2023.
Capri Holdings reported revenues of $1.23 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -9.6%. EPS of $0.74 for the same period compares with $1.50 a year ago.
Capri Holdings is expected to post earnings of $1.55 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -13.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.1%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Capri Holdings. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
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