Yahoo Finance Why Is BioMarin (BMRN) Up 14.1% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN). Shares have added about 14.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BioMarin due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Q3 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss, Ups Voxzogo View
BioMarin reported adjusted earnings of 45 cents per share in third-quarter 2022, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimates of 37 cents and 35 cents, respectively. Earnings rose 150% from the year-ago quarter’s figure, driven by higher revenues, which offset the impact of higher marketing costs.
Total revenues were $505.3 million in the reported quarter, up 24% from the year-ago quarter’s level. However, revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate of $513 million and $515.5 million, respectively.
Quarter in Detail
Product revenues (including Aldurazyme) were $493.3 million in the quarter, up 25.3% year over year. Product revenues from BioMarin's marketed brands (excluding Aldurazyme) were up 26% year over year to $464.3 million on higher revenues from the new drug, Voxzogo, which offset lower sales of Kuvan. Royalty and other revenues were $12.0 million in the quarter, down 19.5%.
Vimizim sales were up 14% year over year to $155.5 million. Naglazyme sales were up 40% to $99.5 million. Vimizim and Naglazyme sales upside can be attributed to the favorable timing of large irregular orders in some countries in Europe and Latin America during the quarter. While Naglazyme sales beat our expectations of $95.1 million, Vimizim sales missed our model estimate of $162.9 million.
Brineura generated sales of $37.8 million in the quarter, up 15% year over year, driven by 20% year-over-year growth in commercial patients. The drug’s sales, however, missed our model estimate of $40.7 million for the quarter.
The new drug Voxzogo generated sales worth $48.3 million in the third quarter compared with $34.4 million in the second quarter. Higher sales of Voxzogo were driven by new patients initiating therapy in Europe and the United States. As of Sep 30, an estimated 713 children were being treated with Voxzogo. During the quarter, Voxzogo was approved in Japan, accounting for half of the 1,500-patient opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region. The Voxzogo sales figure also beat our model estimates of $42.5 million.
In the PKU franchise, Kuvan revenues declined 16% to $57 million due to generic competition, as the drug lost U.S. market exclusivity in late 2020.
Palynziq injection sales grossed $66.2 million in the quarter, up 9% year over year. Though the growth in sales was below management expectations, management expects the drug’s sales growth to meet its expectations in the long term. Palynziq sales continue to be hurt as PKU clinics, particularly in the United States, to treat adult PKU patients with Palynziq, have not recovered their capacity lost due to the pandemic.
Product revenues from Aldurazyme totaled $29 million, up 19% likely due to the favorable timing of product fulfillment to Sanofi’s subsidiary, Genzyme.
Updates 2022 View
BioMarin reiterated its previously-issued total revenue and earnings guidance for 2022. Management expects to record sales in the range of $2.06-$2.16 billion, backed by growth of Voxzogo. The company reiterates its total revenue guidance despite ongoing currency headwinds.
However, BioMarin has raised the sales guidance for Voxzogo for the full year 2022. It now expects to record the drug’s sales in the range of $140-$170 million, up from the previous guidance of $130-$160 million, backed by robust demand for the drug in the United States and Europe.
Management, however, maintained its guidance for the other marketed drugs. Vimizim sales are expected in the range of $655-$700 million, while Kuvan sales are anticipated in the range of $210-$235 million. Palynziq and Naglazyme sales are expected in the range of $250-$275 million and $415-$450 million, respectively. Brineura sales are expected within $145-$160 million.
While the company slightly raised its guidance for selling, general and administrative (SGA) expenses, it slightly reduced its projections for research and development (R&D) costs. The company now expects R&D expenses in the range of $650-$700 million (previously $665-$715 million) and SGA expenses in between the $800-$850 million range (previously $790-$840 million).
BioMarin maintained its adjusted net income guidance in the range of $350-$390 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -21.86% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, BioMarin has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, BioMarin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
BioMarin is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, Biogen Inc. (BIIB), a stock from the same industry, has gained 9.2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2022 more than a month ago.
Biogen Inc. reported revenues of $2.51 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -9.7%. EPS of $4.77 for the same period compares with $4.77 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Biogen Inc. is expected to post earnings of $3.41 per share, indicating a change of +0.6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2% over the last 30 days.
Biogen Inc. has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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