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Vale (VALE) to Report Q4 Earnings: What to Expect?

Vale S.A. VALE is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 16, after the closing bell.

Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s fourth-quarter total sales is pegged at $11.51 billion, indicating a decline of 12% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for earnings has moved north by 17% to 63 cents over the past 30 days. The figure suggests a slump of 56% from the prior-year quarter.

Q3 Results

Vale’s third-quarter earnings per share and revenues came in lower than the year-ago quarter due to lower sales volumes for iron ore combined with the decline in iron ore prices. While revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, earnings beat the same. The company has delivered an average positive surprise of 31.4% over the trailing four quarters.

VALE S.A. Price and EPS Surprise

VALE S.A. price-eps-surprise | VALE S.A. Quote

Factors to Note

Vale recently provided a fourth-quarter 2022 production update on how the company is likely to fare in the to-be-reported quarter. Iron ore production was around 80.9 million tons in the fourth quarter, which was down 10% sequentially and 1% year over year. Production at the Northern System was impacted by higher rainfall and lower output at Serra Norte. The Southern system production was impacted by seasonally higher rainfall in the Minas Gerais region. Southeastern performance was affected by planned maintenance at Alegria’s mining equipment, whereas Southern System results were impacted by lower third-party purchases.

Despite the lower production in the quarter, iron ore fine sales were up 24% sequentially, as the company sold the inventories from the third quarter. Total sales volumes of iron ore fines and pellets were around 90 Mt, which represented a 22% sequential increase. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, sales were down 2%.

Iron accounts for around 80% of Vale’s revenues. Iron ore prices had lost steam through the fourth quarter amid persistent worries about weak demand from China. Recurring COVID lockdowns in China and a weak property sector affected iron ore prices. Soaring electricity prices induced shutdowns of multiple steel plants in Europe as well as capacity cuts. Lower year-over-year sales volumes and prices for iron ore are expected to get reflected in Vale’s fourth-quarter results.

Nickel sales were up 30% year on year and 31% sequentially to 58.2 kt. Vale sold 71.6 kt of copper, which came in 2.8% lower than the last-year quarter.

Over the course of the quarter, a series of factors, including lingering worries of a global economic slowdown, weak demand in China and higher U.S. interest rates, led to volatility in nickel and copper prices as well.

Even though Vale witnessed improved sales volumes of nickel, this gain is expected to have been offset by lower volumes for other metals and overall lower metal prices. The company has been facing higher input costs, particularly diesel and freight costs, which are likely to have weighed on its margins in the quarter to be reported. However, cost control efforts may have negated some of this impact.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vale this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Vale is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Price Performance

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research


In a year’s time, shares of Vale have fallen 2.5% compared with the industry’s 3.4% fall.

Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates

Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which, according to, our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Piedmont Lithium PLL, expected to release earnings on Feb 15, has an Earnings ESP of +8.33% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1.

The consensus estimate for Piedmont Lithium’s fourth-quarter earnings has been revised to a loss of 36 cents from the loss of 39 cents over the past 30 days.

Teck Resources TECK, expected to release earnings on Feb 23, has an Earnings ESP of +9.05% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Teck Resources’ fourth-quarter earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for TECK’s earnings for the quarter is currently pegged at 96 cents.

Celanese Corporation CE, scheduled to release earnings on Feb 23, has an Earnings ESP of +0.37%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CE’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $1.56. CE currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

VALE S.A. (VALE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Piedmont Lithium Inc. (PLL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Celanese Corporation (CE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Teck Resources Ltd (TECK) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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