US natgas prices up 1% on record LNG exports, seasonally cooler weather

Nov 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday with seasonally colder weather coming in mid-November and as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to near-record highs. Even though the weather is turning colder with the coming of winter, meteorologists projected temperatures would remain higher than normal through mid-November, keeping heating demand lower than usual for this time of year. In addition, traders noted that record output and ample amounts of gas in storage were also capping any futures price gains. There was currently about 6% more gas in storage than usual for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.6 cents, or 0.8%, to $3.498 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 7:14 a.m. EDT (1114 GMT). That price increase pushed the front-month back into technically overbought territory, with a relative strength index over 70, for the fourth time in five days. For the week, the contract was up about 11% after gaining about 9% last week. The premium of January futures over December , meanwhile, rose to a record high of 28 cents per mmBtu, which could encourage some speculators to leave gas in storage for longer in hopes of higher prices later in the winter. Utilities, however, will start to pull gas from storage in mid to late November as daily heating demand for the fuel starts to exceed production. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from a record 104.2 bcfd in October. On a daily basis, output hit an all-time high of 107.6 bcfd on Thursday. Meteorologists projected the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 18. LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 109.9 bcfd this week to 101.3 bcfd next week as milder weather cuts heating demand before jumping to 108.9 bcfd as seasonally colder weather boosts heating use. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday. Pipeline exports to Mexico slid to an average of 5.9 bcfd so far in November, down from 6.5 bcfd in October and a record 7.0 bcfd in August. Analysts, however, expect U.S. exports to Mexico to rise in coming months once U.S. energy company New Fortress Energy's plant in Altamira starts pulling in U.S. gas to turn into LNG for export in November. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.7 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.7 bcfd in October and a record 14.0 bcfd in April. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Nov 3 Oct 27 Nov 3 average Forecast Actual Nov 3 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 21 79 83 36 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,800 3,779 3,569 3,610 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 5.3% 5.7% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 3.55 3.47 6.43 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 15.39 15.24 35.88 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 17.65 17.66 28.37 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 202 201 169 223 248 U.S. GFS CDDs 19 22 25 21 15 U.S. GFS TDDs 221 223 194 244 263 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 104.9 105.5 105.7 99.2 94.4 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.6 7.6 8.0 8.0 8.3 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 111.4 113.1 113.7 107.2 102.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.9 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.7 6.1 6.4 5.1 5.3 U.S. LNG Exports 13.7 14.2 14.3 11.7 7.9 U.S. Commercial 6.6 10.3 8.9 7.8 11.7 U.S. Residential 7.4 14.8 12.2 10.1 17.5 U.S. Power Plant 31.9 31.1 26.9 29.3 27.5 U.S. Industrial 22.1 23.8 22.6 22.5 24.3 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 75.4 87.7 78.1 77.0 88.6 Total U.S. Demand 97.3 109.9 101.3 96.4 104.7 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 91 93 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 89 90 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 89 90 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Nov 3 Oct 27 Oct 20 Oct 13 Oct 6 Wind 11 14 10 10 11 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 5 5 5 Other 1 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 40 40 42 41 42 Coal 19 16 17 16 16 Nuclear 19 19 20 21 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 3.12 3.19 Transco Z6 New York 1.70 2.13 PG&E Citygate 5.62 6.10 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.56 1.92 Chicago Citygate 2.54 2.74 Algonquin Citygate 1.83 2.90 SoCal Citygate 7.40 7.38 Waha Hub 1.97 2.18 AECO 1.91 1.90 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 32.50 40.75 PJM West 40.75 46.25 Ercot North 23.75 27.50 Mid C 65.00 65.29 Palo Verde 56.50 55.50 SP-15 57.00 56.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by David Evans)