Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.
During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 25- to 40-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.
Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for approximately two-third of the stocks it's previewed.
In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks, including Cisco (CSCO), NetApp (NTAP), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), Gap (GPS), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Dell (DELL).
Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about Abercrombie & Fitch:
A&F has beaten analyst EPS estimates six of the past eight quarters, missing the consensus once and meeting it once. Over that period, the stock has risen the next session five of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen twice in the last four years.
Last quarter, apparel retailer reported a fiscal second-quarter profit of $15.5 million, or 19 cents per share, compared with $32 million, or 35 cents per share, a year earlier.
Revenue rose 4% to $951.4 million.
Analysts had expected a profit of 17 cents per share on sales of $954.9 million after the company negatively pre-announced its results earlier.
Total U.S. sales including direct-to-consumer (DTC) were down -5%. International sales including DTC were up 31%, and total DTC sales including shipping and handling were up 25%.
Sales on a same-store basis declined by -10%, with comp sales down -5% in U.S. stores and -26% in international stores. A&F expects same-store sales to fall -10% this year. ...
Outside of earnings, A&F is clearly seeing some near-term pressure. Macro conditions in Europe have hurt its international expansion. Meanwhile, same-store sales have struggled, while a more promotional environment and high costs have caused gross margins to erode. The company also has had some dreaded inventory issues.
That said, we think the company's European and Asian expansions are strong long-term growth drivers, although we'd like the company to focus more on its Hollister brand over its namesake in these markets. In addition, some recent analyst surveys suggest that the brand is regaining some of its appeal back in a
generally strong apparel environment. ...
The full BullMarket.com earnings analysis includes a look at historical earnings data and EPS trends for the companies above and more; examines past investor reactions to earnings in various contexts; gives options activity analysis; reviews previous-quarter earnings; and gives an opinion on both what earnings will look like and how investors will react based on the aforementioned data points.
Just a few of the correct calls BullMarket.com made for Q3 so far were:
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