SocGen Offers A Surprising Forecast For Gold Under A Chinese Hard Landing Scenario

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
GLD125.64-0.43
CPER14.50+0.15

China exerts a massive amount influence on commodity markets.  It is said to account for 40 percent of base metal consumption and 23 percent of major agricultural commodities, according to an IMF working paper by Shaun Roache. It's an even bigger market for commodities than the U.S.

And since a Chinese hard landing isn't completely off the table, it's worth considering how this would impact commodities.

In a new note titled "What If China Lands Hard?" Societe Generale's head of commodities research, Michael Haigh writes, that a Chinese hard landing would both lower demand and hurt investor confidence, thereby delivering a double blow to the price of commodities.

Gold

In a hard landing scenario, some expect all commodities to plunge uniformly. Even gold prices could plunge because China is the second largest consumer of gold.

However, gold's reaction is not so obvious.

Haigh writes, that the impact on gold was the most difficult to forecast. Their model suggests that a significant drop in Chinese PMIs (which they use as a proxy for a hard landing) would send gold prices surging 15 percent in the first quarter after a hardlanding to $1,963 per ounce. Gold he points out would be the only commodity to experience this initial rally.

But it would also decline rapidly after.

This fall would be triggered by three key things:

  1. A strengthening of the U.S. dollar in a risk off environment that would cause gold prices to decline because it is priced in dollars.
  2. Easing concerns about inflation.
  3. A rush to cash that would see a move out of long gold positions.

Patrick Legland, head of research at Societe Generale wrote that investors polled on the impact of a Chinese hard landing on commodities and stocks were most uncertain about the impact on gold price. 

The average response was for a 5 percent decline, while Asian investors in particular expected a 21 percent decline. A third of those polled thought gold prices would rise in a hard landing scenario.

Copper

As for Dr. Copper, it is more sensitive to Chinese PMIs than U.S. PMIs considering China consumes five times as much copper as the U.S..

"Importantly, copper prices no longer lead PMI movements, but follow them," according to Haigh. "This means we can use our economist’s 3% Chinese hard landing GDP scenario – which implies a 40% drop in PMIs - to forecast the demand shock impact on commodity prices..." In this scenario, copper prices are projected to fall from $8,000/tonne to about $4,500/tonne one quarter after a hard landing.

Base metals as a whole are projected to decline about 50 percent. Zinc prices are expected to fall to $1,150 per tonne one quarter after the Chinese hard landing, from $2,010/t. Lead prices are projected to fall to $1,250/t, from $2,283/t. Nickel is projected to fall to $10,000/t, from $17,190/t. Finally, tin is projected to fall to $12,000/t from $23,743/t.

Meanwhile, oil is projected to drop to about $77 per barrel one quarter after the Chinese hard landing, from current price of about $111 per barrel.



More From Business Insider

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • NTSB has yet to interview injured engineer in deadly crash
    NTSB has yet to interview injured engineer in deadly crash Associated Press - 20 minutes ago

    National Transportation Safety Board investigators held off questioning the engineer in the deadly Hoboken train crash because of his injuries Friday and struggled to lift clues from the train's black ... … More »

  • The Latest: Investigators say train crew 'very cooperative'
    The Latest: Investigators say train crew 'very cooperative' Associated Press - 27 minutes ago

    The Latest on a commuter train that crashed into a station in New Jersey, killing one person and injuring more than 100 others (all times local): 7:20 p.m. The National Transportation Safety Board says ... … More »

  • PM May orders employment law review as labour market changes
    PM May orders employment law review as labour market changes Reuters - 34 minutes ago

    British Prime Minister Theresa May ordered a review of employment practices on Saturday, saying she wanted to ensure workers' rights were protected under changing business models and a growing trend towards flexible or self-employment. The review … More »

  • Hammond says Brexit deal should not harm economy - Telegraph
    Hammond says Brexit deal should not harm economy - Telegraph Reuters - 38 minutes ago

    British controls on immigration following the country's referendum decision to leave the European Union must not be damaging for the economy, finance minister Philip Hammond was quoted as saying in the Daily Telegraph story on Friday. Hammond told … More »

  • China's yuan joins elite club of IMF reserve currencies Reuters - 46 minutes ago

    China's yuan joins the International Monetary Fund's basket of reserve currencies on Saturday in a milestone for the government's campaign for recognition as a global economic power. It is the first time that a currency has been added to sit … More »

  • Stocks rebound in Deutsche Bank-led volatile trading
    Stocks rebound in Deutsche Bank-led volatile trading AFP News - 55 minutes ago

    US and eurozone shares pushed higher Friday in volatile trade driven by Deutsche Bank's negotiations to settle US charges over its sale of toxic mortgage bonds before the financial crisis. News that Deutsche Bank was close to a much lower … More »

  • Accounting software maker BlackLine files for IPO Reuters - 1 hour 10 minutes ago

    Los Angeles-based BlackLine, founded in 2001 by Chief Executive Therese Tucker, counts Coca-Cola Co (KO.N), Under Armour (UA.N) and Dow Chemical Co (DOW.N) among its 1,500 customers. Reuters reported last week that the company was preparing for an … More »

  • Florida Lottery plans major expansion under huge new deal Associated Press - 1 hour 25 minutes ago

    The Florida Lottery — which just registered more than $6 billion in annual sales — is in line for a large expansion due to a massive new contract that state officials signed this month. Lottery officials, ... … More »

  • Deutsche Bank pressure eases as US fine looks smaller
    Deutsche Bank pressure eases as US fine looks smaller AFP News - 1 hour 30 minutes ago

    Heavy market pressure on Deutsche Bank eased Friday as a knowledgeable source told AFP the US fine over toxic debt it sold would be only $5.4 billion, not the $14 billion originally demanded. A person familiar with the talks between Deutsche Bank … More »

  • A Deutsche Bank settlement overshadows U.S. equities
    A Deutsche Bank settlement overshadows U.S. equities Reuters - 1 hour 38 minutes ago

    Deutsche Bank will likely cast a pall over equity markets next week as the largest German lender navigates a possible multi-billion dollar settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over the sale of mortgage-backed bonds. Deutsche shares traded … More »

  • A Yahoo insider believes the hackers could really have stolen over 1 billion accounts
    A Yahoo insider believes the hackers could really have stolen over 1 billion accounts Business Insider - 1 hour 39 minutes ago

    REUTERS/Ruben Sprich Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer The actual … Continued The post A Yahoo insider believes the hackers could really have stolen over 1 billion accounts appeared first on Business Insider. … More »

  • IMF leader cites 'historic milestone' for China
    IMF leader cites 'historic milestone' for China Associated Press - 1 hour 45 minutes ago

    Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is calling the inclusion of China's renminbi as the fifth currency in an elite group of the world's reserve currencies an "important ... … More »

  • Chinese yuan set to join IMF's elite currency basket
    Chinese yuan set to join IMF's elite currency basket AFP News - 1 hour 48 minutes ago

    China's yuan is poised to enter the International Monetary Fund's elite SDR basket of currencies, elevating Beijing's banknotes into a family long exclusive to global reserve assets. A symbolic coup for policymakers in Beijing, the move represents … More »

  • Business Highlights Associated Press - 1 hour 52 minutes ago

    ___ Malls, stores consider new ways to protect shoppers More sophisticated cameras. Security robots. Customers feeling shaken by recent attacks at U.S. malls may not notice huge changes — but mall operators ... … More »

  • The only executive to hold a high-ranking position at both Uber and Lyft is leaving Uber
    The only executive to hold a high-ranking position at both Uber and Lyft is leaving Uber Business Insider - 1 hour 54 minutes ago

    Uber Uber’s VP of Driver Growth, Travis VanderZanden, … Continued The post The only executive to hold a high-ranking position at both Uber and Lyft is leaving Uber appeared first on Business Insider. … More »

  • Trump vs Miss Universe: White House race hits new low
    Trump vs Miss Universe: White House race hits new low AFP News - 2 hours 25 minutes ago

    Donald Trump urged voters on Friday to check out the supposed "sex tape" of a former Miss Universe backing his rival Hillary Clinton, provoking the Democrat to label him "unhinged" in a surreal new turn to the White House race. In a pre-dawn … More »

  • Data storage provider Nutanix soars in market debut
    Data storage provider Nutanix soars in market debut Reuters - 2 hours 27 minutes ago

    After getting strong encouragement from investors, the company kept nudging up the asking price for shares from the $11 to $13 range set early last week, co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Dheeraj Pandey said in an interview on Friday. … More »

  • Municipal-bond week in review: Yields sag then finish strong Associated Press - 2 hours 30 minutes ago

    Yields on municipal and Treasury bonds sagged this week on concerns about the health of Germany's largest bank, before retracing their steps on Friday. The 10-year yield on the AP Municipal Bond index ... … More »

  • Nutanix exceeds expectations in upsized IPO Reuters - 3 hours ago

    San Jose, California-based Nutanix's share price exceeds the $13.40 value last placed on its shares in a 2014 funding round, an upgrade encouraging for the many unprofitable technology companies that, like Nutanix, have been weary of testing public … More »

  • US stocks rally on Deutsche Bank deal AFP - 3 hours ago

    US stocks rose strongly Friday as financial shares surged on news that Deutsche Bank was near a settlement with US regulators over its sale of toxic mortgage bonds before the financial crisis. US-traded ... … More »

  • How the Dow Jones industrial average fared on Friday Associated Press - 3 hours ago

    U.S. stocks climbed Friday as banks made a rapid recovery following a steep fall a day ago. Investors hoped Deutsche Bank and the financial system in general were in better shape than they had feared. ... … More »

  • Global stocks jump, euro edges up as Deutsche Bank rebounds
    Global stocks jump, euro edges up as Deutsche Bank rebounds Reuters - 3 hours ago

    By Richard Leong NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock prices across major markets rose on Friday, while the euro stabilized as Deutsche Bank's shares recovered from record lows on a report it is close to a deal ... … More »

  • Dutch summon Russian ambassador over MH17 comments
    Dutch summon Russian ambassador over MH17 comments AFP News - 3 hours ago

    Dutch Foreign Minister Bert Koenders has summoned Russia's ambassador over "unacceptable" comments by Moscow criticising a report into the downing of flight MH17, officials said on Friday. "Responding to the presentation of the initial findings... … More »

  • Oil up second straight month on OPEC-fuelled rally
    Oil up second straight month on OPEC-fuelled rally Reuters - 3 hours ago

    Oil prices settled mixed on Friday while posting their second straight monthly gain on OPEC's planned output cuts, even as scepticism about the cartel's pledge grew after data suggested another record high in its production. Brent crude settled up … More »

  • Stocks jump, euro edges up as Deutsche Bank rebounds
    Stocks jump, euro edges up as Deutsche Bank rebounds Reuters - 3 hours ago

    By Richard Leong NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock prices across major markets rose on Friday, while the euro stabilized as Deutsche Bank's shares recovered from record lows on a report it is close to a deal ... … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.152-0.008-5.00%
    N21.SI
    0.12+0.01+12.15%
    40F.SI
    0.115+0.003+2.68%
    40E.SI
    0.113+0.007+6.60%
    43E.SI
    3.97-0.05-1.24%
    Z74.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.186+0.025+15.53%
    AWS.SI
    0.12+0.01+12.15%
    40F.SI
    0.164+0.016+10.81%
    40N.SI
    1.35+0.11+8.43%
    U19.SI
    0.475+0.035+7.95%
    NC2.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.36-0.24-40.00%
    AWG.SI
    0.20-0.06-23.08%
    AWI.SI
    0.27-0.03-11.48%
    BQO.SI
    0.30-0.03-9.09%
    5VP.SI
    0.265-0.025-8.62%
    BKA.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3618-0.0022-0.16%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5296-0.0004-0.03%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7640-0.0041-0.23%
    GBPSGD=X
    74.1220+0.051+0.07%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6879+0.0039+0.07%
    SGDHKD=X
    3.0355+0.0126+0.42%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,608.6318+65.9189+0.69%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.8930+0.006+0.12%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0421+0.0012+0.12%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,318.80-7.20-0.54%
    GCZ16.CMX
    19.25+0.06+0.30%
    SIZ16.CMX
    94.00-1.01-1.06%
    ^XAU
    2.21+0.02+1.07%
    HGZ16.CMX
    43.85+0.41+0.94%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.16+0.04
    ^FVX
    1.61+0.05
    ^TNX
    2.34+0.06
    ^TYX