It's a muted year for tourism.
OCBC notes that after an outstanding 1Q12, with RevPAR and visitor arrivals growing YoY by 14% and 14.7%, respectively, growth in RevPAR and visitor arrivals decelerated through 2Q12 and 3Q12. OCBC's channel checks indicate that hotel bookings up to Chinese New Year in 2013 are still weak, with limited visibility beyond that.
Here's more from OCBC:
We note that 2013, an odd-numbered year, will likely see fewer MICE events, as biennial events are generally held in even-numbered years. Hoteliers have also expressed concern over the upcoming competition that will result from the growth in hotel room supply; new hotels typically provide substantial room rate discounts in the first few months of operation. With no immediate catalysts in sight, and an uncertain global economic environment, we see a muted outlook for tourism in 1H13.
Supply situation is manageable, and better for high-end hotels
Breaking down the projected growth in hotel room supply for 2012-2014, we note that the lower the tier, the higher the expected supply growth: Luxury (+1.6% p.a.), Upscale (+3.4% p.a.), Mid-tier (+7.0% p.a.) and Economy (+7.2% p.a.).
For the first 10 months of 2012, higher hotel tiers showed stronger YoY growth in Average Room Rate (ARR) and RevPAR than lower tiers. We think that this is attributable to the more favourable supply and demand dynamics for the Luxury and Upscale tiers.
The number of affluent visitors to Singapore is increasing with the general growth in arrivals, and supply is more stable for the higher-end hotel tiers.
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