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Singapore banks' loan growth moderates to 10%


Blame it on big declines in various sectors.

According to Nomura, November loan growth moderated to 10% y-y, 8.8% YTD (down from 12% y-y in Oct, +0.7% m-m), with broad-based declines noted in manufacturing, general commerce, financial services-related loans and building & construction by 2-4 ppts.

Here's more from Nomura:

Overall, loans to businesses grew by 7.8% y-y (Oct: 11%), up 0.4% m-m. Housing and bridging loans, c.31% of system loans, remained strong, expanding +16% y-y or up 1.5% m-m. Loan limit utilization moderated to 55.9% (56.7% in Oct), while the net NPL ratio for the system was 0.5% for 3Q12.

YTD deposit growth at 6.1% in November
System deposits grew by 6.1% y-y in November, up from 5.6% in Oct, with deposits from Singapore residents growing at a faster pace (+8% y-y) versus non-residents at 2.4%y-y. The yield curve flattened in November, with the 10-year govt bonds losing 4bps, while the shorter three-month interbank was stable, suggesting NIMs will be under pressure.

Headline inflation at 3.6% y-y; expected to average 3.9% in 2013
Headline CPI moderated to 3.6% y-y in Nov (Oct: 4.0%), largely on account of the lower increase in transportation inflation and housing cost. Core inflation, an important determinant of the MAS’s monetary policy, also moderated to 2% y-y (from 2.2%).

According to Nomura Economics Research, inflation is expected to remain elevated in 2013, led by private transport and accommodation costs with underlying inflation remaining sticky due to tight labour markets and wage pressures. 

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