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Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been disappointing. The share price has failed to impress anyone , down a sizable 58% during that time. So is the recent increase sufficient to restore confidence in the stock? Not yet. Of course, this could be the start of a turnaround.
Since Intel has shed US$8.0b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for Intel
Given that Intel didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last five years Intel saw its revenue shrink by 8.2% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The share price decline of 10% compound, over five years, is understandable given the company is losing money, and revenue is moving in the wrong direction. We don't think anyone is rushing to buy this stock. Not that many investors like to invest in companies that are losing money and not growing revenue.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. If you are thinking of buying or selling Intel stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Intel's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Intel's TSR, which was a 52% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Intel had a tough year, with a total loss of 44%, against a market gain of about 32%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Intel you should know about.