Newmont Corporation (NEM): A Good Gold Mining Stock to Buy?

We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) stands against the other gold mining stocks.

Gold has reached an all-time high, capping a 20-month rally with a 50% increase. Although the selling pressure from the retail investor would have an adverse affect on gold prices, however, this surge is driven by central banks buying record volumes of bullion mainly due to the desire to reduce dependence on US dollar, conflicts in the Middle East, and strong demand from Chinese consumers amid disappointing local equities, property, and currency markets. Furthermore, Chinese political leaders noticed that financial assets of the Russian government including bonds and reserves got confiscated by Western governments after Russia invaded Ukraine. Christopher Mancini, who co-manages Gabelli Gold Fund says “The Chinese central bank saw that happened and said ‘We don’t want that to happen to us.’ It would make sense for them to want to significantly retire their [U.S.] dollar reserves. With gold, they don’t have to worry about being repaid. We know they have been buying a consistent amount of gold every day.”

Bernard Dahdah from Natixis suggests central banks might continue buying gold due to tensions between the US and China, potentially making prices above $2,300 the new norm. The move to gold also reflects a broader trend of nations reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar, prompted by the dollar's use as a geopolitical tool against Russia, leading to gold prices reaching an all-time high of $2,480 per ounce on July 17, 2024. In U.S. the Fed is expected to cut the Fed funds rate, but inflation may remain steady, leading to lower real interest rates. This scenario benefits gold as the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold decreases compared to cash and bonds. Additionally, a decline in U.S. real interest rates may weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold, which is globally priced in dollars, more attractive.

Owning gold directly provides a "store of value" but offers limited returns rather than generate substantial gains like equities. However, other than its appeal in its ability to preserve value, many investors view it as a hedge against economic troubles rather than a high-return investment. So an investor otherwise seeking gold as a soaring investment would be disappointed in the longer term as it doesn’t appreciate by much as gold has risen less than 300% in a century with annualized real returns of 1.34%, adjusted for inflation. Therefore investors looking for a more aggressive approach, aim for gold mining stocks that provide leverage to the gold price that yields returns surpassing those of the underlying commodity.

Despite this leverage, the underlying stock valuations will consider future cash flows and market volatility of the gold as well as the consensus price estimates by market participants. Nonetheless, gold miner stocks should be more volatile than gold itself, offering greater returns if the investor's thesis on rising gold prices is correct.

Regardless of gold prices rising over the last 15 years, gold mining ETFs and major miners (Agnico, Newmont, Barrick) have underperformed compared to physical gold. Although some companies covered in this article have succeeded, the gold mining sector requires careful scrutiny beyond just reserves and production. Like any other investment that is carefully analyzed mining companies need to be analysed based on management, capital allocation, and geopolitical risk. It is also because of these factors that gold mining companies are unable to reach their potential as viable investments.

Methodology

To curate our list of 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in, we gathered a list of all companies using the holdings of gold miners ETFs. We then further narrowed down on the basis of their upside potential. With this let’s now jump to our list of the 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in.

At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).

A gold mine entry with a conveyor belt transporting minerals from the depths of a shaft.

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM)    

Current Price: $47.36

Upside Potential: 14%

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is the world's leading gold producer, mining copper, silver, zinc, and lead as well. Its assets and operations include favorable mining regions in Africa, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean, North America, and Papua New Guinea. Founded in 1921, Newmont has been publicly traded since 1925 and is the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500.

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) reported an adjusted EPS of $0.55 per share in Q1 2024, up from $0.40 a year earlier. The increase was driven by higher gold production of 1.7 million ounces compared to 1.3 million ounces in the same period last year, and rising gold prices. This resulted in an adjusted net income of $630 million, a 97% increase year-over-year.

Following the acquisition of Newcrest, Newmont's consolidated mineral reserves grew to 128 million ounces, a 40% increase from the previous year, making its reserves almost equal to the combined reserves of Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle. This substantial reserve base underscores Newmont's long-term strength and growth potential.

The new Goldrush mine, in which Newmont has a 38.5% stake, is also ramping up production, with an expected output of 130,000 ounces in 2024, potentially reaching 400,000 ounces by 2028.

Newmont offers a robust dividend, with an annual yield of 2.27%, paying out $0.25 per share in the first quarter of 2024. The company's strong cash position, bolstered by $1.4 billion generated in the quarter due to higher gold prices, highlights its growth prospects.

The stock has risen 15.3% in the past month, with analysts setting a target price of $49.85, indicating a potential upside of 12.96% from its current price of $44.13. Additionally, there has been an increase of eight hedge fund holders, bringing the total investment to $925 million as of Q1 2024.

Overall NEM ranks 7th on our list of the best gold mining stocks to buy. You can visit 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in to see the other gold mining stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of NEM as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NEM but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

 

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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.