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MP Materials (MP) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

MP Materials Corp. MP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2023 results after the closing bell on May 4.

Q1 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $90.9 million, suggesting a 45% year-over-year decline. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 19 cents per share, indicating a 62% plunge from the first-quarter 2022 reported figure. The consensus estimate for earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has remained unchanged over the past 30 days.

Q4 Results

In the last reported quarter, MP Materials reported a year-over-year improvement in earnings despite a fall in revenues. Revenues and earnings per share beat the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate. MP Material’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 67.8%.

MP Materials Corp. Price and EPS Surprise

MP Materials Corp. price-eps-surprise | MP Materials Corp. Quote

Factors to Note

In 2022, MP produced 42,499 MT REO in concentrate, which was the highest annual rare earth production in the United States and Mountain Pass history. The company sold 43,198 MT through the year, up 2% from the prior year mainly driven by shipment timings. For 2022, higher ore feed rates were largely offset by lower ore feed grades compared with the prior-year period. Lower ore feed grade is expected to have impacted the company’s output in the first quarter of 2023 as well.

Higher volumes and realized prices drove a 59% improvement in revenues in 2022. The company benefited from a 55% increase in realized sales price which was primarily due to higher demand for rare earth products that drove market prices higher. The realized sales price of rare earth oxide is anticipated to have been higher in the first quarter of 2023 as well due to strong demand and tight supply. Elevated prices are expected to have offset the impact of lower production volumes on the company’s top-line performance in the quarter to be reported.

Higher raw material and logistic costs are likely to have weighed on the performance in the quarter. Also, higher personnel and other general and administrative costs, as well as advanced projects and development costs, are anticipated to have dented margins.

Nevertheless, per-unit production costs, owing to continued operational efficiencies, benefits from higher sales volumes and increased realized pricing, driven by higher market prices, are likely to have offset some of these impacts on the company’s bottom-line performance in the quarter to be reported.

What Our Zacks Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MP Materials this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for MP Materials is -4.00%.

Zacks Rank: MP currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Price Performance

MP Materials’ shares have fallen 43.9% in the past year compared with the industry’s 17.8% decline.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates

Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Pan American Silver Corp. PAAS, scheduled to release earnings on May 10, has an Earnings ESP of +28.57% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pan American Silver’s first-quarter earnings has been revised 66.7% upward in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for PAAS’ earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 5 cents.

B2Gold Corp BTG, scheduled to release first-quarter 2023 earnings on May 9, has an Earnings ESP of +16.67% and has a Zacks Rank of 3.

The consensus estimate for B2Gold’s first-quarter earnings has moved up 20% in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BTG’s earnings for the quarter is pegged at 6 cents.

Air Products and Chemicals APD, scheduled to release first-quarter 2023 earnings on May 9, has an Earnings ESP of +2.25% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Air Products’ first-quarter earnings has been unchanged in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for APD’s earnings for the first quarter is pegged at $2.64.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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