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Mosaic (MOS) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

The Mosaic Company MOS is set to release fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 22, after the closing bell.

The fertilizer maker delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 4.3%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. The company’s fourth-quarter results are likely to reflect the benefits of higher prices and demand for phosphate and potash.
 
Shares of Mosaic have gained 10.8% in the past year compared with a 0.9% rise of the industry.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research


Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Do the Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s fourth-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $4,307 million, calling for a rise of 12.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $1,536 million, suggesting an increase of 4.8% year over year.

Moreover, the consensus mark for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $1,321 million, indicating an increase of 47.3% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment is currently pegged at $1,719 million, which calls for an increase of 12% year over year.

Factors at Play

Mosaic is expected to have benefited from higher demand for phosphate and potash in the fourth quarter. Higher agricultural commodity prices and attractive farm economics are driving demand for fertilizers globally. Global phosphate markets remain favorable on healthy demand and low producer and channel inventories. Higher prices are also likely to have driven sales across its segments in the quarter to be reported.

The company is also likely to have benefited from actions to reduce costs amid a still-challenging operating environment. Its actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to have boosted its profitability. Transformational savings are also likely to have supported margins in the December quarter.

However, it is likely to have faced headwinds due to higher prices of key raw material in the fourth quarter. Prices of sulfur and ammonia remain elevated, made worse by the uncertainties over the supply from Russia amid the war.  Plant shutdowns and maintenance have also led to a tight supply of raw materials. As such, the company is expected to have faced margin pressure associated higher input costs.

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

 

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise
The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Mosaic is 0.00%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $2.08. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Mosaic currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Quaker Chemical Corporation KWR, slated to release earnings on Feb 23, has an Earnings ESP of +7.38%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Quaker Chemical’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.22. KWR currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Teck Resources Limited TECK, scheduled to release earnings on Feb 21, has an Earnings ESP of +0.17%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Teck Resources’ fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 96 cents. TECK currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Eldorado Gold Corporation EGO, slated to release earnings on Feb 23, has an Earnings ESP of +3.13%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eldorado Gold’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 5 cents. EGO currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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