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These macro developments in India point to high inflation

Flickr photo by Vijay Chennupati

Even GDP growth is foreseen to slow to 5.6%.

According to BBVA Research, recent macro developments paint a mixed picture for India’s economy given the revival in policy reforms, weak factory activity, high and sticky retail inflation, and unexpected easing in WPI inflation.

Here's more from BBVA Research:

Furthermore, a widening trade deficit and fiscal woes, amid slippages in non-tax revenues, have dragged on the rupee. Against this backdrop, the outturn for Q3 GDP growth will be a key input for the Reserve Bank of India in timing its rate-cut cycle.

While RBI’s cautious stance over inflation suggests reasonable likelihood of further policy easing in 1Q13, a negative surprise in Q3 GDP growth would add to the case for a December policy action.

That said, inflation prints in the run up to the next policy meeting will also warrant close attention. We expect a shallow recovery for India, starting in Q3, with overall GDP growth slowing to 5.6% for full year 2012, down from 7.5% in 2011.

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