A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Focusrite plc (LON:TUNE)

Key Insights

• Focusrite's estimated fair value is UK£3.71 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Current share price of UK£3.85 suggests Focusrite is potentially trading close to its fair value

• The UK£5.03 analyst price target for TUNE is 36% more than our estimate of fair value

Does the July share price for Focusrite plc (LON:TUNE) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Focusrite

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£14.9m	UK£15.7m	UK£16.3m	UK£16.8m	UK£17.3m	UK£17.8m	UK£18.2m	UK£18.5m	UK£18.9m	UK£19.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ 3.90%	Est @ 3.26%	Est @ 2.81%	Est @ 2.50%	Est @ 2.28%	Est @ 2.13%	Est @ 2.02%	Est @ 1.95%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%	UK£13.6	UK£13.2	UK£12.5	UK£11.8	UK£11.1	UK£10.5	UK£9.8	UK£9.2	UK£8.5	UK£8.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£108m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£19m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (9.2%– 1.8%) = UK£263m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£263m÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)¹⁰= UK£109m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£217m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£3.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Focusrite as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.361. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Focusrite

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Consumer Durables market.

• Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Threat

• Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Focusrite, there are three pertinent items you should assess:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Focusrite you should be aware of.

2. Future Earnings: How does TUNE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com