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FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks mixed and pound slumps as BoE governor points to 'more aggressive' rate cuts

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The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) rose as European stocks were lower on Thursday thanks to Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey saying that Threadneedle Street could become a “bit more aggressive” and “a bit more activist” in its approach to cutting interest rates if the news on inflation continued to be good.

In an interview with the Guardian newspaper, Bailey said he was encouraged by the fact that cost of living pressures were not as persistent as the central bank feared they might be.

He added that the monetary policy committee was also closely watching developments in the Middle East amid fears of a fresh oil price shock.

"Obviously, we keep watching it," he said. "We watch it extremely closely to see the impact of the latest news. But … my sense from all the conversations I have with counterparts in the region, is that there is, for the moment, a strong commitment to keep the market stable.

“There’s also recognition there’s a point beyond which that control could break down if things got really bad. You have to continuously watch this thing, because it could go wrong.”

The pound is on track for its worst day in over 18 months, down as much as 1.4% against the US dollar at $1.31, a drop of around 1.5 cents.

It is so far the biggest one-day drop against the dollar since 7 March last year. Sterling has also dropped as much as 1% to as low as €1.19.

  • London’s benchmark index was just 0.4% higher in afternoon trade, boosted by a weaker pound.

  • Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) dipped 0.4% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed 0.6% into the red.

  • The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was down 0.5%.

  • Wall Street is set to open lower as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all in the red.

  • The pound was 1.3% down against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.3096.

Follow along for live updates throughout the day:

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  • Eurozone economy shrinks for first time in eight months

    Germany financial crisis on economic graph, economic collapse. Germany economic crisis graph, financial fall
    Germany financial crisis on economic graph, economic collapse. Germany economic crisis graph, financial fall (./., imageBROKER.com GmbH & Co. KG)

    The eurozone economy saw private sector activity fall for the first time since February, according to the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI.

    Germany, France and Italy shrank simultaneously for the first time this year as the figure dropped from 51 to 49.6. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in output.

    Spain was the only bright spot, climbing up to 57.

    Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

    “In France, service providers’ business activity slowed down after the Olympics effect and in Germany and Italy, growth almost hit a wall in September.

    “Even if Spain manages to avoid getting pulled down by the struggles of its neighbours, the eurozone’s services sector as a whole seems to be headed for more sluggish growth.”

  • Dollar commentary

    Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said:

    "Recent data, including stronger-than-expected ADP employment figures, along with a more hawkish tone from Jerome Powell during a public address on Monday, led to a reassessment of the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in November, boosting the dollar."

    "The greenback also benefited from increased demand for haven assets, driven by fears that the conflict between Israel and Iran could escalate, potentially causing significant military and economic disruptions in a region crucial to the global economy."

    "Against this backdrop, investors will closely watch tomorrow's release of non-farm payroll data, as it could either reinforce the impact of the recent ADP report or counter its effect, potentially weakening the dollar."

  • Nvidia boss calls AI chip demand 'insane'

    The CEO of Nvidia (NVDA), Jensen Huang, said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday that demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) chips was "insane".

    Huang said Nvidia's AI Blackwell chips were in "full production", following much speculation about the production of the chips.

    Shares were up 1.5% in pre-market trading on Thursday afternoon.

    Huang was speaking alongside Accenture (ACN) CEO Julie Sweet, with the two businesses having announced details of their expanded partnership on Wednesday.

    This included Accenture's formation of an Nvidia Business Group, which the professional services company said was aimed at helping businesses "rapidly scale their AI adoption".

    Meanwhile, Nvidia was widely reported to be one of the investors in the $6.6bn (£5bn) new funding raised by Chat-GPT maker OpenAI, which the company said took its valuation up to $157bn.

  • Market movers at midday

    Let's take a look at what's happening in equity markets this afternoon...

    • Housebuilders were among the top performers, with Persimmon, Barratt, Taylor Wimpey and Vistry all up. The sector was boosted by rate cut hopes and data from Zoopla which showed that house sales rose in September at the fastest rate since the post-lockdown rebound.

    • Tesco gained as it lifted its annual profit guidance despite a slight slowdown in underlying sales growth in the second quarter. Due to stronger-than-expected volumes in the first half, which the grocer put down to its ongoing investments in "value, quality and service", retail adjusted operating profit for the year ending 24 February was now expected to be £2.9bn, up from earlier guidance of at least £2.8bn and higher than last year's £2.76bn.

    • Telecom Plus, which trades at Utility Warehouse, also advanced as it backed its full-year guidance and reported a rise in customer numbers.

    • SSP Group was in the red as it said it expected to deliver a large jump in full-year profits, despite weaker trading in Continental Europe, especially in France where demand during the Olympics was lower than anticipated. The company, which operates food outlets at train stations and airports, said core profits for the year to September would come in at £350-360m, up from the £280m reported a year earlier and lower than planning assumptions of £375m at the top end.

    • British Land lost ground after saying it had raised £301m in an equity placing to help fund the acquisition of a portfolio of seven "high quality" retail parks.

    • Phoenix Group, Smith & Nephew, TBC Bank and Hargreaves Lansdown all fell as they traded without entitlement to the dividend.

  • Pound on track for worst day in 18 months

    Close up currency trading board. Close up currency trading board. Euro, US dollar, British pound, Japanese yen ecxchange rates. Business, financial markets, currency trading, price information. 3D illustration img currency028s02 exchange rates and changes
    Close up currency trading board. Close up currency trading board. Euro, US dollar, British pound, Japanese yen ecxchange rates. Business, financial markets, currency trading, price information. 3D illustration img currency028s02 exchange rates and changes (IMAGO/Westlight, Imago)

    The pound is now on track for its worst day in over 18 months, down almost 1.4% against the US dollar at $1.311, a drop of 1.5 cents.

    It is so far the biggest one-day drop against the dollar since 7 March last year.

    Sterling has also dropped as much as 1% to as low as €1.19.

  • Turkish inflation falls to 49.4%

    The annual inflation rate in Turkey fell to 49.4% in September.

    Despite the figure coming in higher than the 48.1% forecast from economists, the rate down from 52% in August.

    Inflation increased 2.97% on a monthly basis in September, the TUIK statistics agency said.

    Turkey’s central bank began to raise interest rates last year in an effort to battle soaring prices, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dropped his opposition to orthodox monetary policy.

    Erdogan this week said inflation was on a downward trend.

    “Our people will feel the slowdown more in the bazaars, and in their shopping baskets,” he said.

  • Rental demand increases in Q3

    The latest research by Zero Deposit, the tenancy deposit alternative, reveals that tenant demand for rental homes in England climbed by +1.7% between Q2 and Q3 2024, while demand since the start of the year has increased by +3.3%.

    The latest index by Zero Deposit shows that: -

    National picture

    • Rental demand across England sat at 35.1% during the third quarter of this year, meaning that more than a third of all rental properties listed on the market had found a tenant.

    • This marks a quarterly increase of +1.7% as well as a +3.3% increase since the start of 2024.

    Quarterly movement

    • West Midlands County recorded the largest quarterly increase of all English counties, with rental demand climbing by +5.6% between Q2 and Q3 2024.

    • The second-largest tenant demand increase was recorded in Leicestershire (+5.2%), with West Yorkshire (+4.5%), Greater London (+4.1%), and Devon (+4%) completing the top five for quarterly growth.

    England’s hottest and coldest rental markets

    • England’s hottest rental market right now is West Sussex where tenant demand of 55% is highest across all counties for Q3 2024.

    • In Wiltshire, 50.1% of all rental properties have secured tenants, while demand is also strong in Hertfordshire (48.4%), Somerset (47.6%), and Cambridgeshire (47.4%)

    • However, rental demand in some counties is lagging severely behind.

    • In Nottinghamshire, just 20.8% of all rental properties have been successfully let, while demand is also particularly low in East Riding of Yorkshire (25.3%) and the City of London (26.2%).

  • Tesco profits rise

    File photo dated 26/08/16 of a Tesco shop sign. Tesco has said consumers are in
    File photo dated 26/08/16 of a Tesco shop sign. Tesco has said consumers are in (Nicholas.T.Ansell, PA Images)

    Tesco has revealed that sales grew 4% to £31.5bn over the 26 weeks to 24 August, compared with the same period last year. It now expects to make profit of £2.9bn for the year, up from £2.8bn previously predicted.

    The supermarket chain said it will make £100m more than expected after it took market share from rivals by cutting its prices. The grocer also put more staff on the shop floor and used AI to target ranges to local tastes.

    Tesco made £260m of cost savings in the six months period and also benefited from restructuring its ban.

    An increase in the volume of sales, particularly across fresh food, helped push up the overall figure, meaning people were putting more items in their baskets.

    It also announced a nearly 15% increase in the volume of sales of its “Tesco Finest” premium range, compared with the same period last year.

    The retailer said 20 million more people had bought its Finest premium own-label range.

  • Pound commentary

    Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB said:

    "The pound was already selling off before Bailey’s comments, and GBP/USD is down more than 1% so far this week, it is down from $1.34 at the start of this week to below $1.31 this morning.

    "It has found decent support at $1.3170, however, this has been a bruising week for the pound, and $1.35 seems like a mountain to climb from here. Part of the pound’s sell off is due to external factors. As geopolitical risks in the Middle East have risen, the US dollar has caught a bid. The currencies that were most extended vs. the US dollar have sold off rapidly, as investors have sought the safety of the dollar.

    "Hence, the pound and the yen were in the sellers’ sights, as the markets scrambled to buy dollars. The pound is still the best performing currency in the G10 FX space so far this year, thus, if tensions escalate further, then we could see another leg lower for GBP/USD [the pound against the dollar]."

  • US dollar strengthens and pound slides

    The dollar hit more than a six-week high versus the yen on Thursday as robustness in the US jobs market increased bets that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates.

    In contrast the pound tumbled to a two-week low on the back of Andrew Bailey's comments on more aggressive rate cuts.

    The euro slid to a three-week trough after normally hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month.

    The yen has come under selling pressure since Japan’s new prime minister said on Wednesday, following a meeting with the central bank governor, that the country is not ready for additional rate hikes.

    In the meeting between Ishiba and Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda, both officials indicated that the central bank did not view further rate hikes as suitable for the economy at this time. That prompted a flurry of selling of yen.

  • Bailey points to possibility of more aggressive rate cuts

    Alberto Pezzali, PA Images

    Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey has said Threadneedle Street could become a “bit more aggressive” and “a bit more activist” in its approach to cutting interest rates if the news on inflation continued to be good.

    In an interview with the Guardian newspaper, Bailey said he was encouraged by the fact that cost of living pressures were not as persistent as the central bank feared they might be.

    He added that the monetary policy committee was also closely watching developments in the Middle East amid fears of a fresh oil price shock.

    "Obviously, we keep watching it," he said. "We watch it extremely closely to see the impact of the latest news. But … my sense from all the conversations I have with counterparts in the region, is that there is, for the moment, a strong commitment to keep the market stable.

    “There’s also recognition there’s a point beyond which that control could break down if things got really bad. You have to continuously watch this thing, because it could go wrong.”

    The bank is next scheduled to set interest rates in early November and money markets suggest there is an 88% chance of a cut to 4.75%.

  • UK sellers giving 5% discounts as lower mortgages boost market

    Lower mortgage rates have boosted buyer demand and property sales in the UK, with most sellers accepting more than a 5% discount to secure a sale.

    UK house prices have risen 0.7% in August to an average of £267,100 as buyers take advantage of the lowest mortgage rates, according to the latest House Price Index from Zoopla.

    Buyer demand and sales agreed have surged more than 25% year-on-year, as households that previously hesitated re-enter the market.

    The report showed that increasing supply will likely keep house price inflation in check, as many of the new listings are from homeowners looking to upgrade or relocate. Approximately 37% of transactions are occurring at prices more than 5% below initial asking prices, reflecting buyers' price sensitivity amidst the expanding choices available.

    Sales activity has increased significantly across various regions, with the East Midlands experiencing a 32% rise and the North East seeing a 30% increase. Overall, the number of homes sold has risen by over 10% nationwide.

    With this renewed buyer interest, the number of properties listed for sale has also seen a boost, climbing 12% as sellers, including homeowners and investors, capitalise on falling mortgage rates and anticipated tax changes.

    Read more here

  • Asia and US stocks

    Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight with the Nikkei (^N225) rising 2% on the day in Japan, following a rollercoaster few days in Tokyo after new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba dampened speculation over an interest rate hike.

    The dollar gained against the Japanese yen helping push Tokyo’s index higher. It gained 2.2% to 38,655.03, while the dollar traded at 146.80 Japanese yen, up from 146.41 yen late Wednesday.

    The dollar had been trading around 142 yen after the ruling Liberal Democrats chose Shigeru Ishiba to head the party and succeed Fumio Kishida as prime minister. Ishiba had expressed support for the central bank’s recent moves to raise its near-zero benchmark interest rate, which stands at around 0.25%. That led traders to bet that the yen would gain in value.

    But after a meeting between Ishiba and Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda, both officials indicated that the central bank did not view further rate hikes as suitable for the economy at this time. That prompted a flurry of selling of yen.

    Meanwhile the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.3% in Hong Kong after a weeklong surge in which they soared around 20%. The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was still closed for a national holiday.

    Across the pond on Wall Street, the Dow Jones (^DJI) rose 0.1%, to 42,196.52, and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was flat, closing at 5,709.54. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.1% during the session to end at 17,925.12.

    In the bond market, the yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 3.78%, from 3.74% late on Tuesday.

  • Coming up...

    Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy.

    Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today...

    • 7am: Trading updates: Tesco, Galliford Try

    • 9am: Eurozone services PMI index for September

    • 9.30am: UK services PMI index for September

    • 10am: Eurozone producer prices index for August

    • 12.30pm: Challenger survey of US job cuts for September

    • 1.30pm: US weekly jobless claims report

    • 3pm: US Factory Orders

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